Is the NFL really in a down year or is it a changing of the guard?

[mgteich]

I think it's a changing of the guard. New England and Houston aren't going away. Denver probably is going to be good for a while. I expect a reloading of KC, but that may take a year or two. The Bills could turn it back around if they turn into a running team.

All that said, the AFCN will continue to suck for the foreseeable future.

Yes, there is a changing of the guard in the sense that NE, HOU and DEN should be part of the top 5 for awhile. Clearly, the domination of the East and the West by KC and BUF is over.

I do think that KC and BUF can be competitive as long as they have their current QB's. They need to do well in free agency and the draft.
For me, it will be interesting to see what the future brings for JAX, IND and LAC.

 

[Steve102]

Why do we care so much if they make the playoffs or not? Even if by some miracle they slip in at 10-7, they are not winning the superbowl this season. We seem to focus on their chances of getting in but they are a non issue this year. They will not represent the AFC in the big game this year

Any team with championship pedigree knows how to win once they get to the tournament. While I agree with the spirit of what you're saying, until they are eliminated, they are a dangerous out.

 

[Water Boy]

This is related to quarterback salaries. Once your quarterback gets his big deal, and you sign your other key players, the money left isn't enough to have a team that is strong in all 3 phases of the game. So you end up with teams that are strong on offense but weak on defense, or vice versa. The best teams can stay on top for 2-3 years after the big deal, but then attrition sets in and they start to decline. So I think what we are seeing is a changing of the guard overall.

I'm definitely interested in the plan for paying Maye. I like that they are carrying over cap space from one year to the next.

Had Maye shown a steady linear progression and not a meteoric rise in year 2 where he's in line for MVP, I'd be good with the Patriots continuing to roll as much cap as possible into future years for when Maye hits his "prime" so that we can field a Super Bowl caliper team around him at that point.

Now we are legit Super Bowl contenders with a rookie QB which is the dream scenario for any GM. It's a window of opportunity to load up on difference making FAs while Maye is on his rookie deal.

Interesting to see how Vrabel and the front office play it. Go all in or take a more measured sustainable approach to not leave the cupboard dry when he gets his next contract.

 

[Kargetina]

Why do we care so much if they make the playoffs or not? Even if by some miracle they slip in at 10-7, they are not winning the superbowl this season. We seem to focus on their chances of getting in but they are a non issue this year. They will not represent the AFC in the big game this year

In 2023, the 11-6 Chiefs, beat the Dolphins, then the second seed Bills away, the first seed Ravens away, and won the SB by beating the 49ers.

All of their losses have been a one possession games, except the last one against the Texans, when Reid decided to go on a fourth down at their own 30 yard line, while the score was tied at 10-10.

They're not a great team, but then again, neither is any AFC team, with the possible exception of the Patriots. They lost by 3 to the mighty Broncos in a dead-even game. If Mahomes has a good day, and Reid isn't shooting at their knees, they can beat anyone.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Anyone that has watched football for a longtime can see the overall product is a far cry from what it used to be. In fact, I've been telling you guys for years the NFL continues to decline. The 90's and 2000's were by far superior to the crap we're seeing now.

Some of the reasons the NFL has taken a nose dive:

- Incompetent HC's: this is why hardly anyone has been fired yet due to the lack of alternatives. Take a loot around the NFL and you'll be asking yourself who the hell that coach is and how did he even get hired in the first place?

- Lack of identities: Every team builds their team exactly the same and runs the same offense and defense. What happened to the west coast offense? Tamp 2 defense? Zone blitz defense? The 4-6 defense? Run and shoot offense? Greatest show on turf? Legion of Boom? Marty Ball? Bill Belichick taking away what team's do best? I know the reason. Players are too incompetent to comprehend this and that's why we see every team look the same to make it easier for the player.

- Serious lack of true super stars: It's a dying breed. NFL is trying way too hard pushing guys that have no business being in the spotlight.

- Too many no name players: The average lifespan of an NFL player seems to have dropped dramatically. It seems like NFL teams are adopting the LeBron James approach and blowing up their roster after every season. It's because these guys aren't any good and teams are looking for replacements.

- lack of talent from the college ranks: As a kid/teenager and young adult, I used to watch the drafts and there would be "can't miss" or "generational talent" guys in every draft. We don't see that anymore.

- Rules favoring offenses: it took a long time to take over, but this is what we get. The two teams I've noticed get away with false starts on a regular basis are the Chiefs and the Eagles. I'm tired of watching the Eagles G's constantly getting up from their stance and talking to the QB before tapping the C to snap the ball. There were many times the entire line wasn't set. It's bull ****.

- Rivalries are dead: they've been dead for a long time. The last good rivalry was the Seahawks/49ers in the early 2010's. There's way too much turnover which is why we don't see this anyone. The Manning/Brady rivalry was really good for the NFL and I miss that.

- The art of the QB is dying: the trend we continue to see is a QB who panics and starts running around. They aren't facing complex defenses like QB's of the past did. Everyone has the same damn scheme. Tom Brady has said to an extent that QB's can't read defenses and prefer breaking the pocket. He also mentioned defensive schemes were different as well when he first started playing.

- Salary cap: TV contracts have exploded the cap and inferior QB's are making money that will set up generations. You think they have much motivation to win? Not when you're making $60M like Dak Prescott. That's the reality we face. Too many mediocre players are getting paid a lot of money which I think is really bad for the game.

- NFL scheduling is atrocious - too many networks hijackings games early in the season. Why are we seeing potential championship games or Super Bowl matchups in week 1 or 2? The latest example late in the season is not flexing Bills at Pats which have a lot of storylines, but it's trapped in a 10am time slot. They won't remove Dallas from SNF. Instead, the NFL wants you to see Pittsburgh and Miami on MNF.

- NFL is watered down: too many games. It was fine with 16 games and 6 playoff teams. It's not too easy to make the playoffs with 7 teams.

 

[mayoclinic]

Maybe.

This year we have 3 good new coaching hires in

I think we say this every year. Every year people complain about all those things. At least in recent years. The preseason has been shortened for like four years. Every year, we see about 5-7 coaches get fired. Officiating has been awful for as long as I can remember.

That's my point.

I don't think this year is any different. I just think the overall quality of the product has been steadily deteriorating for years.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I'm definitely interested in the plan for paying Maye. I like that they are carrying over cap space from one year to the next.

Had Maye shown a steady linear progression and not a meteoric rise in year 2 where he's in line for MVP, I'd be good with the Patriots continuing to roll as much cap as possible into future years for when Maye hits his "prime" so that we can field a Super Bowl caliper team around him at that point.

Now we are legit Super Bowl contenders with a rookie QB which is the dream scenario for any GM. It's a window of opportunity to load up on difference making FAs while Maye is on his rookie deal.

Interesting to see how Vrabel and the front office play it. Go all in or take a more measured sustainable approach to not leave the cupboard dry when he gets his next contract.

The only problem with that is that free agency in 26' is really old and really weak. Although i do think that going after Tyler Lindebaum, who will be in demand, would be a great move for the Patriots.

If you look at 27' free agency it looks much better, unfortunately most of the really good players will be re-signed, or traded to new teams that will sign them:

Ultimately if you are going to sustain greatness you better draft better than everyone else.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Defense is winning most NFL games this year, and that seems to bother people who only care about offense. I find it refreshing.

 

[mike_usagisan]

Yes, there is a changing of the guard in the sense that NE, HOU and DEN should be part of the top 5 for awhile. Clearly, the domination of the East and the West by KC and BUF is over.

I do think that KC and BUF can be competitive as long as they have their current QB's. They need to do well in free agency and the draft.
For me, it will be interesting to see what the future brings for JAX, IND and LAC.

I think Jax and LAC could be set up to be competitive but I think Indy is preparing to shoot themselves in the foot by ride-or-dying with Daniel Jones.

 

[Ring 6]

Any team with championship pedigree knows how to win once they get to the tournament. While I agree with the spirit of what you're saying, until they are eliminated, they are a dangerous out.

There are very few examples of champions who declined and still won a championship in a down season.
Now the argument that they are dangerously because even though they suck they have a coach and Qb that give them a better chance at an upset makes sense to me

 

[Vindicate]

Anyone that has watched football for a longtime can see the overall product is a far cry from what it used to be. In fact, I've been telling you guys for years the NFL continues to decline. The 90's and 2000's were by far superior to the crap we're seeing now.

Some of the reasons the NFL has taken a nose dive:

- Incompetent HC's: this is why hardly anyone has been fired yet due to the lack of alternatives. Take a loot around the NFL and you'll be asking yourself who the hell that coach is and how did he even get hired in the first place?

- Lack of identities: Every team builds their team exactly the same and runs the same offense and defense. What happened to the west coast offense? Tamp 2 defense? Zone blitz defense? The 4-6 defense? Greatest show on turf? Legion of Boom? Marty Ball? Bill Belichick taking away what team's do best? I know the reason. Players are too incompetent to comprehend this and that's why we see every team look the same to make it easier for the player.

- Serious lack of true super stars: It's a dying breed. NFL is trying way too hard pushing guys that have no business being in the spotlight.

- Too many no name players: The average lifespan of an NFL player seems to have dropped dramatically. It seems like NFL teams are adopting the LeBron James approach and blowing up their roster after every season. It's because these guys aren't any good and teams are looking for replacements.

- lack of talent from the college ranks: As a kid/teenager and young adult, I used to watch the drafts and there would be "can't miss" or "generational talent" guys in every draft. We don't see that anymore.

- Rules favoring offenses: it took a long time to take over, but this is what we get. The two teams I've noticed get away with false starts on a regular basis are the Chiefs and the Eagles. I'm tired of watching the Eagles G's constantly getting up from their stance and talking to the QB before tapping the C to snap the ball. There were many times the entire line wasn't set. It's bull ****.

- Rivalries are dead: they've been dead for a long time. The last good rivalry was the Seahawks/49ers in the early 2010's. There's way too much turnover which is why we don't see this anyone. The Manning/Brady rivalry was really good for the NFL and I miss that.

- The art of the QB is dying: the trend we continue to see is a QB who panics and starts running around. They aren't facing complex defenses like QB's of the past did. Everyone has the same damn scheme. Tom Brady has said to an extent that QB's can't read defenses and prefer breaking the pocket. He also mentioned defensive schemes were different as well when he first started playing.

- Salary cap: TV contracts have exploded the cap and inferior QB's are making money that will set up generations. You think they have much motivation to win? Not when you're making $60M like Dak Prescott. That's the reality we face. Too many mediocre players are getting paid a lot of money which I think is really bad for the game.

- NFL scheduling is atrocious - too many networks hijackings games early in the season. Why are we seeing potential championship games or Super Bowl matchups in week 1 or 2? The latest example late in the season is not flexing Bills at Pats which have a lot of storylines, but it's trapped in a 10am time slot. They won't remove Dallas from SNF. Instead, the NFL wants you to see Pittsburgh and Miami on MNF.

- NFL is watered down: too many games. It was fine with 16 games and 6 playoff teams. It's not too easy to make the playoffs with 7 teams.

It’s also important to remember that almost all sports are facing a decline in quality. Basketball and football both have suffered from a transition to a style of play that prefers immediate success over the long term development of a program. This style of play informs scouting methodology. That scouting methodology and high-scoring style informs how scheme is developed.

This is part of the reason why a franchise QB is so important: it affords you the chance to have some continuity and development on the offense over a 5-10 year timeline. Otherwise, your team could look radically different every 5 or so years.

Main answer is: I don’t think it’s just a changing of the guard. I think we’re in that phase, but we have more vacancies in that guard than we do replacements.

 

[doesntmatter1]

Every year is different but I'm enjoying this year very much. I've seen many entertaining games outside of ours. TNF has been significantly better this year than quite a few years I can remember. Top teams consistently lose free agents and part of their staff so this year is no different.

Biggest change is the fall of the Chiefs but that has slowly been happening for awhile. Kelce is older and they are struggling to put a decent wr group together. Thorton still sucks but he is a starter and that is all you need to know to see why they are struggling.

 

[TheRainMaker]

It’s also important to remember that almost all sports are facing a decline in quality. Basketball and football both have suffered from a transition to a style of play that prefers immediate success over the long term development of a program. This style of play informs scouting methodology. That scouting methodology and high-scoring style informs how scheme is developed.

This is part of the reason why a franchise QB is so important: it affords you the chance to have some continuity and development on the offense over a 5-10 year timeline. Otherwise, your team could look radically different every 5 or so years.

Main answer is: I don’t think it’s just a changing of the guard. I think we’re in that phase, but we have more vacancies in that guard than we do replacements.

I recently watched a video on Brian Shaw talking about how the evolution of current teams and how running the triangle was off limits when he went on HC interviews. Basically, they say players have become less intelligent and can't run these offenses anymore.

 

[jal]

There are very few examples of champions who declined and still won a championship in a down season.
Now the argument that they are dangerously because even though they suck they have a coach and Qb that give them a better chance at an upset makes sense to me

There aren't many examples - you're right

The ones I can think of:
Patriots in 2018 absolutely fit the bill
Chiefs in 2023 were only 11-6 and made a run from the third seed
Denver in 2015 arguably (they weren't champions previously, but Peyton was and that team had been a contender for three years leading up to that run)
Could argue Giants 2011 fit this profile too as much of the 2007 core were still the key players for that 2011 team

 

[TheRainMaker]

There aren't many examples - you're right

The ones I can think of:
Patriots in 2018 absolutely fit the bill
Chiefs in 2023 were only 11-6 and made a run from the third seed
Denver in 2015 arguably (they weren't champions previously, but Peyton was and that team had been a contender for three years leading up to that run)
Could argue Giants 2011 fit this profile too as much of the 2007 core were still the key players for that 2011 team

Troy Aikman had said the 1995 Cowboys were worse than the 1994 team that lost to the 49ers in the NFCCG.

The 2006 Colts were worse than the 1999, 2003, 2004 and 2005 teams.

The 2015 Pats who lost in the AFCCG were better than the 2014 Pats who won the Super Bowl. The 2012 Pats who lost in the AFCCG were better than the 2011 Pats who got to the Super Bowl. And as you mentioned, the 2018 Pats were way worse than the 2017 team that lost the Super Bowl.

 

[Vindicate]

A question I've also asked myself: were we spoiled with good QB's 2000-2016? I'm not sure how crowded the field looked before that as I wasn't watching much until 2001, then very closely starting in 2010.

 

[Borg140]

I think it’s premature to say it’s a changing of the guard. We don’t know how Denver and the Pats will do in the playoffs. If the Pats lose their first playoff game, peeps will say they weren’t ready. As has pointed out, KC can retool and get right back into it. Buffalo will always have some sort of shot with Allen. I can buy Baltimore and Jackson seem to be fading. But they have a history of drafting very well. And there’s no one in the South that has truly established themselves a contender, so I don’t think things have really changed all that much….yet.

 

[mnpatfan]

Changing of the Guard... Pats are Back!

 

[203Pat]

Anyone that has watched football for a longtime can see the overall product is a far cry from what it used to be. In fact, I've been telling you guys for years the NFL continues to decline. The 90's and 2000's were by far superior to the crap we're seeing now.

Some of the reasons the NFL has taken a nose dive:

- Incompetent HC's: this is why hardly anyone has been fired yet due to the lack of alternatives. Take a loot around the NFL and you'll be asking yourself who the hell that coach is and how did he even get hired in the first place?

- Lack of identities: Every team builds their team exactly the same and runs the same offense and defense. What happened to the west coast offense? Tamp 2 defense? Zone blitz defense? The 4-6 defense? Run and shoot offense? Greatest show on turf? Legion of Boom? Marty Ball? Bill Belichick taking away what team's do best? I know the reason. Players are too incompetent to comprehend this and that's why we see every team look the same to make it easier for the player.

- Serious lack of true super stars: It's a dying breed. NFL is trying way too hard pushing guys that have no business being in the spotlight.

- Too many no name players: The average lifespan of an NFL player seems to have dropped dramatically. It seems like NFL teams are adopting the LeBron James approach and blowing up their roster after every season. It's because these guys aren't any good and teams are looking for replacements.

- lack of talent from the college ranks: As a kid/teenager and young adult, I used to watch the drafts and there would be "can't miss" or "generational talent" guys in every draft. We don't see that anymore.

- Rules favoring offenses: it took a long time to take over, but this is what we get. The two teams I've noticed get away with false starts on a regular basis are the Chiefs and the Eagles. I'm tired of watching the Eagles G's constantly getting up from their stance and talking to the QB before tapping the C to snap the ball. There were many times the entire line wasn't set. It's bull ****.

- Rivalries are dead: they've been dead for a long time. The last good rivalry was the Seahawks/49ers in the early 2010's. There's way too much turnover which is why we don't see this anyone. The Manning/Brady rivalry was really good for the NFL and I miss that.

- The art of the QB is dying: the trend we continue to see is a QB who panics and starts running around. They aren't facing complex defenses like QB's of the past did. Everyone has the same damn scheme. Tom Brady has said to an extent that QB's can't read defenses and prefer breaking the pocket. He also mentioned defensive schemes were different as well when he first started playing.

- Salary cap: TV contracts have exploded the cap and inferior QB's are making money that will set up generations. You think they have much motivation to win? Not when you're making $60M like Dak Prescott. That's the reality we face. Too many mediocre players are getting paid a lot of money which I think is really bad for the game.

- NFL scheduling is atrocious - too many networks hijackings games early in the season. Why are we seeing potential championship games or Super Bowl matchups in week 1 or 2? The latest example late in the season is not flexing Bills at Pats which have a lot of storylines, but it's trapped in a 10am time slot. They won't remove Dallas from SNF. Instead, the NFL wants you to see Pittsburgh and Miami on MNF.

- NFL is watered down: too many games. It was fine with 16 games and 6 playoff teams. It's not too easy to make the playoffs with 7 teams.

I agree with pretty much all of this. The league was so heavily reliant on a handful of quarterbacks being the face of the league for so long. Marino, Elway, Montana, Steve Young, Jim Kelly, and Troy Aikman through the 80's and 90's and then Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger, Brees, and Rodgers through the 2000's and 2010's. Outside of Kelly and Marino all those guys won a ring (or rings) and were a top 5 QB for a decade plus. Now you really just have Mahomes as the only proven winner and that is about it. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have won a handful of MVPs between them but at the moment can never seem to get over the hump and aren't even the best teams in their respective divisions. There is also Burrow but he always seems to be hurt and then you have guys who have won like Stafford and Hurts but neither of them have ever really been considered a "face of the league". The star power is definitely lacking right now.

As for the coaching aspect I think the league has almost always operated with at least one third of the head coaches being completely unqualified. Now it just seems like so many organizations are so quick to pull the plug so you never really know what you have because you're always in a rinse and repeat cycle. Perpetual losers like the Raiders, Jets, and Browns cycle through head coaches, GMs, and quarterbacks every 2-3 years and nothing ever changes. Also so many of these teams have overlap in those three spots which contributes to all the turnover. The GM of a team drafts a bust at QB and then gets fired only for the new GM to hire a new coach and then they're both saddled with someone else's bust QB who they push out of town to take their own and so on. Sure a coach could just be a good coordinator who doesn't have what it takes to be a head coach or that coach could have developed into a Pete Carroll, Bill Belichick, or Mike Shanahan if they were given the proper time and resources.

Everything else you mentioned rolls up into one thing; money. @Bill Lee and I have talked about this subject quite a few times on here. The NFL is perfectly fine watering down the product if it means more money. Adding games to the season to squeeze in more ad dollars even though half the league is playing backup quarterbacks against each other by the last few weeks? Sure why not. Expanding the playoffs to further squeeze more ad dollars out of the game so teams at .500 could get into to get steam rolled? Go for it. Three primetime games a week as the bare minimum while adding island games in the morning for the London nonsense and cramming football into Black Friday, Christmas Eve and Christmas Day and don't forget the late season Saturday games. Sure the owners could use an extra private jet.

 

[BennyBledsoe]

There is also a long-term concern with head coaches. Beware...well, once they start acting like Belichick or Shula in the final few years of their runs. If you get the feeling there is nobody pushing back on them within the coaching staff or on the roster, if assembling the team just feels like they just don't want to be challenged... get them out sooner rather than later. \

For me, the moment I knew Belichick had to go was when he put in Patricia and Judge to work with a second year QB. That level of poor judgement was egregious.

Also don't forget that Goodell is the employee/face for the owners. His job is to absorb the hate and criticism for the collective will of the owners. Judging by your reactions, he is doing an excellent job.