Vrabel COTY prospects

[n1997y]

I think the next three Patriots games could possibly determine the COTY choice.

If the Patriots surmount the injuries from this weekend and continue to play at a high level it should clinch the award for Vrabel. OTOH if they fall apart and let a lack of depth destroy their momentum it will severely dim his prospects.

For him to continue to be a strong contender I’d say they need to beat the Giants without struggling, and be very competitive against Buffalo and Baltimore even if they lose both games. If they win 2 out of the next 3 games that should be enough to improve his standing, and if they can win all three of those that would pretty much ice the cake imo.

I think they’ll be able to do it. I don’t think we are as thin on the OL as some seem to think. Lowe has experience at LT and now has had the benefit of good coaching for a year. I think he has been better than he’s given credit for being in the past, and I expect he’s improved over that from having had a year to learn and be coached up. Ben Brown is also experienced, and my recollection is that in the past he’s consistently gotten compliments for playing better than expected. We’ve also got Wallace who could be a serviceable backup at either G or T, plus Bryant as another layer of solid OT depth. It’s probably too much to ask that they continue rolling seamlessly at the same level of play with no drop off, but I won’t be surprised if the drop off is insignificant. I’d be more surprised if it’s the disaster some are predicting than if they just keep rolling.

What do you think?

 

[sb1]

It's either Vrabel or Steichen and Steichen's odds took a hit yesterday.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Who are the other choices? Steichen and Ben Johnson? McVay and Payton?

All seem like reasonable and defendable choices to me. No one is bringing up McVay because of how good the team’s been in the past which works against him. I think if we do end up with the best record in the league it would be hard to go against Vrabel. Best record in AFC with Rams being being best in NFL, Vrabel might still win. Otherwise, I see it really wide open.

 

[n1997y]

It's either Vrabel or Steichen and Steichen's odds took a hit yesterday.

Colts schedule for the rest of the season is brutal. Not a team left with a winning record. They play Houston and Jacksonville twice, both divisional rivals with playoff aspirations, plus Seattle and San Francisco. That is six tough games in a row. That’s why I’ve not been worrying about them for the #1 seed as much as I am about Denver.

 

[sb1]

Colts schedule for the rest of the season is brutal. Not a team left with a winning record. They play Houston and Jacksonville twice, both divisional rivals with playoff aspirations, plus Seattle and San Francisco. That is six tough games in a row. That’s why I’ve not been worrying about them for the #1 seed as much as I am about Denver.

That's why I think there's a good chance Jax steals that division from them.

 

[Steve102]

I appreciate the one true option.

 

[Gumby]

Is that “ Ray Lewis Killed Some Guys”?

 

[Ring 6]

I think the next three Patriots games could possibly determine the COTY choice.

If the Patriots surmount the injuries from this weekend and continue to play at a high level it should clinch the award for Vrabel. OTOH if they fall apart and let a lack of depth destroy their momentum it will severely dim his prospects.

For him to continue to be a strong contender I’d say they need to beat the Giants without struggling, and be very competitive against Buffalo and Baltimore even if they lose both games. If they win 2 out of the next 3 games that should be enough to improve his standing, and if they can win all three of those that would pretty much ice the cake imo.

I think they’ll be able to do it. I don’t think we are as thin on the OL as some seem to think. Lowe has experience at LT and now has had the benefit of good coaching for a year. I think he has been better than he’s given credit for being in the past, and I expect he’s improved over that from having had a year to learn and be coached up. Ben Brown is also experienced, and my recollection is that in the past he’s consistently gotten compliments for playing better than expected. We’ve also got Wallace who could be a serviceable backup at either G or T, plus Bryant as another layer of solid OT depth. It’s probably too much to ask that they continue rolling seamlessly at the same level of play with no drop off, but I won’t be surprised if the drop off is insignificant. I’d be more surprised if it’s the disaster some are predicting than if they just keep rolling.

What do you think?

Margin of victory, struggling or not isn’t factor. Coach of the year isn’t won by having blowout wins vs close wins or by having moral victory losses.
3 ugly wins helps him (and us) much more than 2 convincing wins and a loss.

He has a lot of competition this year, but COTY voters tend to love improvement from last year over being the best team, which gives him a leg up.

 

[n1997y]

Is that “ Ray Lewis Killed Some Guys”?

Exactly

 

[PatsFan2]

That's why I think there's a good chance Jax steals that division from them.

All the Colts losses have been on the Road. They have been holding serve @ Home thus far. I'm taking J Taylor and D Jones over Trevor Lawrence 24/7.

 

[Gumby]

I took the bullets as “ Team CAN sputter and Vrabes still wins it”. At least, so long as they win the AFCE. Worst to first is a shoe-in.

 

[n1997y]

Margin of victory, struggling or not isn’t factor. Coach of the year isn’t won by having blowout wins vs close wins or by having moral victory losses.
3 ugly wins helps him (and us) much more than 2 convincing wins and a loss.

He has a lot of competition this year, but COTY voters tend to love improvement from last year over being the best team, which gives him a leg up.

Thats why I think the quality of play will be a big factor, especially in the face of adversity. It’s not just a numbers game.

So three ugly wins, struggling and getting help from opponents beating themselves, won’t get any style points, while playing strong and losing to a stronger team, like splitting the season series with the Bills, will get those points. And as you said in that highlighted passage, in COTY voting there are style points and they do count. Thats just MHO of course.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

I think the biggest thing working against him vs. Steichen is Maye. I feel like many attribute our turnaround in large part to Maye's improvement whereas in IND no one really views Daniel Jones as "driving the bus". And justifiably so, I might add. Our turnaround is more extreme, but IND is also punching pretty far above what people thought was their weight class. Outperforming expectations on a team where the QB isn't regarded highly probably gives him a leg up over Vrabel's team outperforming expectation on account of a QB people mostly regarded as having all the tools and set to be very good breaking out quicker than anticipated. Especially since Vrabel is a defensive guy too.

That being said, IND may well fall off a cliff these next few weeks. And even now they're one game behind us. I think if we get the top seed Vrabel gets it but if us and IND were to finish 2/3 then Steichen probably does. We'll see how the rest of the season plays out.

McVay and Payton have arguments but probably disqualified because they usually prefer up and comers over established coaches.

 

[TheRainMaker]

If the Pats win the next 3 games, Vrabel will lock it up.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Colts schedule for the rest of the season is brutal. Not a team left with a winning record. They play Houston and Jacksonville twice, both divisional rivals with playoff aspirations, plus Seattle and San Francisco. That is six tough games in a row. That’s why I’ve not been worrying about them for the #1 seed as much as I am about Denver.

Yeah they were playing teams with something like 41 combined wins before Sunday - whereas the Pats were playing teams with a total of 24 wins (Denver a bit tougher road playing teams with a combined 29 wins).

On COTY to me it's Vrabel given that he's rebuilt a 4 win team - but I give a TON of credit to Ben Johnson for turning the Bears around and seemingly getting some good play out of Caleb Williams.

 

[maust]

What do you think?

I think...

 

[n1997y]

I think the biggest thing working against him vs. Steichen is Maye. I feel like many attribute our turnaround in large part to Maye's improvement whereas in IND no one really views Daniel Jones as "driving the bus". And justifiably so, I might add. Our turnaround is more extreme, but IND is also punching pretty far above what people thought was their weight class. Outperforming expectations on a team where the QB isn't regarded highly probably gives him a leg up over Vrabel's team outperforming expectation on account of a QB people mostly regarded as having all the tools and set to be very good breaking out quicker than anticipated. Especially since Vrabel is a defensive guy too.

That being said, IND may well fall off a cliff these next few weeks. And even now they're one game behind us. I think if we get the top seed Vrabel gets it but if us and IND were to finish 2/3 then Steichen probably does. We'll see how the rest of the season plays out.

McVay and Payton have arguments but probably disqualified because they usually prefer up and comers over established coaches.

You make a couple of good points.

You’re right about McVay and Payton. I think the only way coaches of teams that are routinely in contention can win COTY is in a year when they overcome significant adversity to have an exceptionally good season anyway, and there are few or no other strong contenders.

The usual path to COTY is taking a terrible team from the previous season and turning them around. Vrabel certainly nails that. It’s also a good point about expectations being influenced by perceptions of the QB. It’s more of an accomplishment for a coach to accomplish an outstanding record with a stellar QB. Daniel Jones certainly hasn’t compiled an impressive resume previously, and Maye was expected to be a star, so those perceptions make Vrabel’s role seem less important. Asking whether Vrabel or Maye is more important to the Patriots turnaround is like asking whether it was Brady or Belichick that was responsible for the dynasty. But the growth Maye has showed over the course of the season demonstrates the importance of coaching so I’d think it won’t overshadow Vrabel’s accomplishments. For one thing Maye did not construct the revised roster and get them all plating together so well. But Maye’s contribution is a factor that will be considered. I think Vrabel will still end up earning the recognition he deserves as COTY. It would be appropriate for him to get both COTY and the Lombardi imo.

 

[signbabybrady]

Belichick is better!

 

[Ring 6]

Thats why I think the quality of play will be a big factor, especially in the face of adversity. It’s not just a numbers game.

So three ugly wins, struggling and getting help from opponents beating themselves, won’t get any style points, while playing strong and losing to a stronger team, like splitting the season series with the Bills, will get those points. And as you said in that highlighted passage, in COTY voting there are style points and they do count. Thats just MHO of course.

Sweeping the Bills will get more points that splitting with them.

Most people outside of this board consider a win a win and dont downgrade wins for not being blow outs.

You misunderstood me if you think I said style points mean anything.

What I was saying was they tend to favor a cus h going 12-5 with a team that was 3-14 over a coach who had back to back 12-5s.
Improvement measured by wins, not moral victories.

 

[farn]

How could he NOT ? He took over a rudderless team coming off back to back 4 win seasons. There was almost zero hope for the future, save a young unproven QB…