I looked at the schedules and I think the tiebreaker between Denver and New England would be the second tiebreaker, conference record, and if we both win out the Patriots would prevail because of a scheduling quirk.
Broncos rotating divisional opponents this year come from the NFC East while ours are from the AFC South. So we play more games in conference then they do, and since both of us have all our losses in conference we would have a better percentage against conference opponents.
Things get more complicated if we both lose one more game but they lose to an NFC team, because our percentage against conference opponents would go down and theirs wouldn’t. That gives them the tiebreaker.
So we either need to win out, or lose one less game over the remainder of the season than the Broncos do.