Learning from our mistakes using the wonderful world of math!

[NovaScotiaPatsFan]

This thread is me being a giant nerd with way too much time on his hands and wondering how decisions/mistakes in certain situations in the past game affected the Patriots' odds of winning.

My methodology was pretty simple, take decisions or mistakes that were crucial in the game, feed them into Pro Football Reference's win odds calculator and see what the difference is if that decision/mistake went differently. If you have any problem with how the odds are calculated, take it up with PFR.

I'm not a scientist, I'm not an expert in probability, I'm not an expert in probability measurements. I'm just telling you what I know. I would not say that I'm Mona Lisa Vito of the probability world as she was in the car expertise area.

So, there's been speculation, rightly I'd say, that on first and goal at the end of the first half Maye didn't try to score, but instead pretended to to drain the clock, obviously on Vrabel's orders. IF this were true it reduced the odds of the Patriots winning by a pretty substantial amount. If they'd tried to score from the beginning their odds of winning would have been 60.7%, whereas wasting the down for time resulted in only a 56.6% chance of winning, a difference of 4.1%

Next, Drake Maye's interception. Him throwing the pick gave the Bucs an 11% chance to win. If he'd thrown it away, the Patriots kicked the FG and then gave TB a touchback on the kickoff their chance of winning in that situation would have only been 4.1% A difference of 6.9%

Finally, should Henderson have scored or not. The answer is no, he shouldn't have. But the difference is so minute it would rival the size of your average Bills' fan's brain. If Henderson scores the probability of victory would be 99.25%. if he doesn't and goes down at the 1 and Tampa immediately stops the clock the probability of victory is 99.8% A difference of 0.55%

May the Force be with you.

 

[mayoclinic]

I do not respond to polls that do not have RLKAG as an option, for religious reasons.

 

[TheRainMaker]

So, there's been speculation, rightly I'd say, that on first and goal at the end of the first half Maye didn't try to score, but instead pretended to to drain the clock, obviously on Vrabel's orders. IF this were true it reduced the odds of the Patriots winning by a pretty substantial amount. If they'd tried to score from the beginning their odds of winning would have been 60.7%, whereas wasting the down for time resulted in only a 56.6% chance of winning, a difference of 4.1%

The first down play with Maye falling down just to drain clock is something I never want to see again. The only reason I think Vrabel did this was because he planned on going for it on 4th. Still, had Maye been sacked on 2nd or 3rd down, that first down play backfires. I liked Vrabel going for it on 4th down, but I thought the pass to the corner of the end zone was a very risky.

Next, Drake Maye's interception. Him throwing the pick gave the Bucs an 11% chance to win. If he'd thrown it away, the Patriots kicked the FG and then gave TB a touchback on the kickoff their chance of winning in that situation would have only been 4.1% A difference of 6.9%

That pick reminded me of early Tom Brady who did that quite a lot during the 1st Dynasty putting the game back on the defense to bail him out.

Finally, should Henderson have scored or not. The answer is no, he shouldn't have. But the difference is so minute it would rival the size of your average Bills' fan's brain. If Henderson scores the probability of victory would be 99.25%. if he doesn't and goes down at the 1 and Tampa immediately stops the clock the probability of victory is 99.8% A difference of 0.55%

I disagree with this completely. After the Pats were threatening to score earlier, did you think Maye was going to throw a pick? Nothing is guaranteed if Henderson falls down at the 1 yard line. Snaps can get fumbled, false starts happen, kicks can get blocked if it came down to it. Put the damn team away when you have the chance.

If you can't hold off a team up 12 with 1:31 remaining, you don't deserve to win the game. Too many teams are trying to get cute today with going for two at the most random times, going for it on 4th down, falling down inbounds when you have a chance to score, etc..

Also, Henderson conceding a TD is money he's leaving on the table in the future. Teams will always use that stuff against players once it's time for a new contract. I'm glad he ran it in.

 

[Water Boy]

 

[maust]

I do not respond to polls that do not have RLKAG as an option, for religious reasons.

Right there with you as far as not voting in polls without RLKAG(P2) as an option, only the reason is different. In a world of constantly forced compromise and ever lower standards I draw the line at failure to at least respect the process. In other words...

 

[DC Patriots]

Normally I support RLKAG as options, but having read the entire post, the lack of “NSPF is single because he’s too busy masturbating to Venn diagrams,” is criminal

 

[NovaScotiaPatsFan]

Normally I support RLKAG as options, but having read the entire post, the lack of “NSPF is single because he’s too busy masturbating to Venn diagrams,” is criminal

For the last time STOP READING MY DIARY!