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Content Post Idle thoughts: The reality check edition

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patfanken

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Like I've always said, 5 games from now no one will remember OR care how good Drake was today, or how many sacks we allowed, or how we lost the TO battle 2-0. All that will be remembered will be, was it a win or loss. It was a win, and once again, style points don't matter. If we had beaten them by 2 or 3 scores, like we SHOULD have, we still only get one win.

This sloppy and imprecise game just gives Mike a TON of teaching points without the penalty of a loss. The main object of this thread will be to explore some of these "teaching points" and figure out how to get better. Let's begin.


1. I'll start with the thing that bothers ME the most. The offense has not scored a SINGLE point in the 4th quarter for the last FOUR games! The fact that we have won all 4 of those games is remarkable. I almost wish Romo made the kick, so Maye would have had the opportunity to have a 2minute drive to lead the offense to a game winning score at the end of the game.

That's an experience he NEEDS to get used to. It was Brady's most important attribute. You did NOT want Brady with the ball at the end of the game he just OOOZED confidence and that rubbed off on to his teammates and terrified his opponents. It takes both time and those winning experiences to create that kind of experience and confidence. Maye has had many of those experiences.


2. ... and then there are the 6 sacks. Now granted a couple of those "sacks" were for one-yard losses, but 11 sacks in 2 games is NOT a good look. I think I read somewhere that in half a season, he now has the same number of sacks he had all last year behind that horrible OL that has been replaced. Does that mean THIS years' OL is worse?

Of course not. Maye often had a LOT of time to throw deep. He threw for 250+ yds against a secondary that hadn't given up 200yds to any QB in their first 8 games. Sometimes you have to give credit to the opponent. They have a bunch of good young speed rushers and blitz more often than any other team in the league. So I'd rather focus on the 259 yds made and the 19 completions, than the 6 plays that didn't go as planned.


3. The 3rd concern is the Pass Rush, or lack thereof. We had just one sack, but there were I think a decent amount of pressures and it didn't look like we blitzed very much. However, IIRC, Atlanta, lost both of their OG's and I think their RT during the game, and yet our DL, with our 2 "all pro" DT's failed to generate much of inside rush against BACKUPS. We need some pass rush help, even more than help at S.


4. I think Boutte will be out for at least the next 2 games and that hurts. He and Maye had formed a great connection, but **** happens and we have been pretty lucky with injuries so far and one was bound to happen. I look at it as a opportunity to see what Williams has to offer. Most importantly he'll get the majority of first team practice snaps that he HASN'T gotten so far this season and a chance to develop a bit of chemistry with Maye. It won't happen instantaneously, but it WILL happen eventually, and we will see less of the confusion we saw on his 2 targets yesterday (I hope) Though I expect to see the WR junkies on fire for the next 2 days.


5. Coaching - There were a number of pluses on the coaching side. IIRC there were zero holds and presnap penalties during the course of the game. That not only made the game more enjoyable to watch, but it also showed that discipline is growing on both sides of the ball.

However, there are 2 areas of complaint, at least for me. One is with Zack and the lack of blitzing or creativity on the defensive side. I felt it was important to make Pennix feel uncomfortable and a few creative blitzes and the THREAT of blitzing would be important elements to this game. The Pats DID blitz, but only at their usual 20% rate, they didn't present many fake looks to make the QB speed up. That along with the lack of many individual wins allow Pennix to have some success, though a lot of his success were because of some REMARKABLE catches from his receivers, especially Drake London.

On the offensive side I have just one request. There were a couple of times where I would have liked to see a planned QB run play. That is ALWAYS a good option simply because it is the one play that gives the offense an extra blocker. We ran a speed option a couple of games ago that was successful. Maye is fast if not elusive. He is big and strong and has shown he can absorb his share of contact. So why not have one or two plays a game where you take advantage of that skill set, at the right time. And it is time to put our version of the tush-push to bed.


6. We probably won't hear much "Drake Maye MVP" talk this week, or the "Drake Maye Superstar" talk. He WASN'T flawless on his deep throws this week against a very good secondary. In a week where the great Patrick Mahomes threw for a less than 50% completion rate, Maye's 65% looked like a disaster compared to the unbelievable numbers he's put up during the first 5 games of this winning streak.

I don't think anyone is worried or concerned that the league is "catching up to him". His numbers were more than respectable and there were a few mitigating circumstances that affected his play, mostly the loss of Boutte, and the Atlanta secondary.


7. I took the time to watch Will Campbell closely at the start of most of the offensive snaps and when they did replays of any offensive plays and there wasn't a single pass play where he wasn't ALWAYS directly in front of the rusher. There were a couple of time where the defender bull rushed him back, but only once or twice and never for a sack. I also thought Wilson had a good game. It will be interesting to see the PFF scores for this week. (Which we all know are just indicators of how someone played and NOT statements of fact.) Campbell is a good one and was the right one for us. At the time, he wasn't my favorite choice, but I'm REAL glad we got him. We have our LT, and I look forward to his growth over the next decade.


8. As to the right side of the OL, I would say they are doing well in the run game as those numbers are up slightly. There were a number of times it DID look like the pressure was coming from there, including on the strip sack. It was easy for people to blame Owenu for that sack, but I'd like a second look to see if he missed him or was otherwise occupied and the sack was the result of well thought out stunt,

Moses has his limitations but has otherwise been pretty good overall. In other words, we got what we paid for, and he was a good FA signing, but one we need to upgrade in the near future. Owenu, has also been OK, but his contract is onerous. He was considered the top FA OG in that class, and we paid the market price for that signing. I can hear the Kraft boo birds crying their "cheap" talk if he HADN'T signed Duggar and Owenu.


9. Despite the amazing success we are having thus far, it IS important to remember we are still a rebuilding team, a good team, but rebuilding, nonetheless. So, DEPTH is going to be an issue and injuries ARE going to happen. We now move down to Tampa to face a good team who has shown the league how to deal with injuries and still be a winning team.

We will be underdogs for this one and the Rodney Harrison in me rises to the task in joy.


10. There were very few flags this week and the game just flew by and was SOOOOO much more enjoyable to watch. I hope the league noticed it and will instruct the officials accordingly. I want the refs to call fouls when the play was actually affected by the action. Don't call a hold on a player across the field from the throw. Don't call a PI on an uncatchable ball. Go back to letting player ask line judges, "am I OK?" Anything that promotes FEWER flags not more. JMHO


11. Have to say that I rooted for the Bills last night. Yes, it would have allowed more of a margin of error for us to win the division, but I DON'T want to see KC in the superbowl again, and this loss will just make it harder for them.

We have 3 games we will probably be underdogs left. Tampa, Baltimore, and the Bills. And I hope while all those games are winnable, GB's loss at home to the Panthers, should warn us that for those 5 games we will be favored, are also losable if we don't play our best.


12. The trade deadline. Sad to see JPhillips was just sent to Philly, I thought he was the perfect kind of guy to add, thought it was unrealistic that Miami would trade with us and have to see him twice a year.

Today and tomorrow will see a ton of trades, I hope we will make one and I hope it's an edge player who has the chance to make a difference. At any rate there will be a lot to talk about this week about what will happen the next 2 days plus the Tampa game. Busy week ahead.


13. And my usual warning about Turnovers. If we don't do a better job of turning the ball over, we will be making our lives SOOOO much more difficult. 0-2 is a hard stat to overcome.


Alright, sorry for the delay, I literally fell asleep at the wheel last night.
 
Agreed on all fronts but one: I don’t think Williams has earned reps in practice or games. If he had, we’d see more of him.

I think Hollins is more likely to slot into Boutte’s spot, with Chism possibly getting some time, or Diggs snap count increasing.
 
Brilliant as usual..
For me the 6 sacks were concerning, not to take away with Maye did against a very good defense. I do not have the aptitude to break down what happened, will be interesting to see what folks do that sort of thing see.
OTOH only 2 penalties is significant progress...
Scary to see Gonzalez go down, but he said he is ok.. we will see.
Boutte's loss is concerning, but the NFL season is one of attrition and injuries happen.
But from my big comfy couch nice to see how much progress we have made after the past couple of years on all levels.. I am enjoying Pats football again.
Next 3 games are gonna be tough, but this is a well coached tough physical team.. as Steve Sabol often said, "On any given Sunday"...
 
The sacks have to come down. Throw the ball away if there's nothing there not take the low percentage change something will open up. I also think the OL could be even better with another draft/FA cycle.

Drake getting Andrew Luck'ed a few years from now would be tragic.
 
It feels like the good ole days when we’re winning games but still have many concerns after the games .

Maye is taking alot of sacks but alot of them aren’t head on hits at least, more like conceding after extending the time to throw a bit. You still want to see cleaner pockets eventually. I think it will take one more offseason to fully fix this line, it was just too many holes to fill in one offseason. Its at the point where its adequate enough to have success thanks to Drake’s ability. But this should definitely continue to be an area of focus next year
 
Agreed on all fronts but one: I don’t think Williams has earned reps in practice or games. If he had, we’d see more of him.

I think Hollins is more likely to slot into Boutte’s spot, with Chism possibly getting some time, or Diggs snap count increasing.
I suspect that Douglas will get more reps. Three WR's enough if they stay healthy. After all, we also have Henry, Hooper and Henderson as receiving targets.
 
Dump offs to the flat are OK sometimes.

I feel Drake has been so successful downfield (he and Darnold are the best downfield throwers in the NFL right now) that McD has him focused on some really late developing routes. It leads to him abandoning the pocket too early or holding the ball too long. Would love to see him dump it to the flat once or twice.

Whenever you see him throw to a back, it's always by design, a screen of some sort.
 
I believe it's 12 sacks in 2 games, including 1 Cleveland sack that was not Myles Garrett's.
 
Yes, fourth quarter scoring with the game on the line has certainly been a concern.........but a minor silver lining is that they are finishing some clock killing drives (like yesterday and against the Saints).
 
One point on the sack numbers: he's taking sacks on 11.7% of dropbacks. Last year it was 9.1%.
I'm worried about any correlation between high sack rates and likelihood of injury, and any exacerbation of the correlation when the QB is a ballcarrier at the time of a hit.
 
I really appreciate the balanced patient and sensible approach. Interesting reading.

PS: I also rooted for KC to lose as I feel them not making it to the super bowl is a paramount objective ... and I feel slightly guilty about that.
 
Given I have thought from the start that the purpose of this year is to advance the rebuild, I think this was the ideal outcome. They learned how to win when not playing their best, and the coaches have a number of important coaching points. Perfect.
 
All great points and insights as always Ken

One of my concerns is that as there's a growing resource of "tape" to watch the OL and offensive tendencies, we are seeing Defenses able to take advantage of that - potentially to the tune of 6 sacks in one game.

But as you correctly point out, despite those lapses Maye most often has a LOT of time to throw. They've given him the time to stretch the field and that's resulted in points which have often been the difference of games.

When it comes to "tape" on the offense in general, McDaniels and Maye haven't given DC's much to go on seemingly having a different go to receiver every game. Boutte's injury might result in an additional WR move at the trade deadline but I'm fine with no moves on WR for now.

I'd guess that trading White and Dugger are preludes to trades for RB, DE, and DB. At least I'm hoping as we need depth in those areas if we expect to contend in the post season. Note the Eagles, as loaded as they are, loading up even further right now without giving up too much in draft stock.

If the Pats make no moves, so be it, but just a few additions and we have as much of a chance of a Super Bowl as anyone.
 
One point on the sack numbers: he's taking sacks on 11.7% of dropbacks. Last year it was 9.1%.
Good point. And that is behind a greatly improved OL.

Only conclusion is the difference must be on Maye not the line.
 
Dump offs to the flat are OK sometimes.

I feel Drake has been so successful downfield (he and Darnold are the best downfield throwers in the NFL right now) that McD has him focused on some really late developing routes. It leads to him abandoning the pocket too early or holding the ball too long. Would love to see him dump it to the flat once or twice.

Whenever you see him throw to a back, it's always by design, a screen of some sort.
I not convinced it’s McD that is focused on the late developing routes. I suspect it’s Drake. When he says he doesn’t want to be Checkdown Charlie it seems he’s saying it’s the deep ball or he’s going to run. Still playing hero ball either way.
 
I not convinced it’s McD that is focused on the late developing routes. I suspect it’s Drake. When he says he doesn’t want to be Checkdown Charlie it seems he’s saying it’s the deep ball or he’s going to run. Still playing hero ball either way.

He throws about a dozen passes a game more than 10 yards downfield, so he's not exactly Chuck It-Deep either.
 
I not convinced it’s McD that is focused on the late developing routes. I suspect it’s Drake. When he says he doesn’t want to be Checkdown Charlie it seems he’s saying it’s the deep ball or he’s going to run. Still playing hero ball either way.



Waiting to see that ^Guy.
 
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