Which UDFA's Do You Have As More Than 50% Likely To Make The 53?

[mgteich]

It is a good group, but realistically, 6th and 7th round position players and UDFA's are usually less than 50% to make a 53-man roster.
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For me, it is LARISON (everyone's binky?) AND
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???

 

[manxman2601]

Larison and then either Dippre or Lampe.

 

[The Gr8est]

Larison and then either Dippre or Lampe.

Maybe all three.

And Chism.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

Larison... On paper heading into camp, you have Stevenson/Henderson/Gibson ahead of him with Terrell Jennings competing for the 4th spot, who was a less heralded UDFA last year than Larison is this year. Keeping less than 4 RBs would be somewhat atypical (even though we did just that for most of last year) and that's not even to mention the possibility that Stevenson or Gibson could be cut/traded for financial reasons or the team just wanting to return minor draft capital vs. keeping them in the new regime.

Dippre... Kind of a similar story. He's similarly competing with fringe roster players for a very rosterable role as the 3rd TE. I think Jahiem Bell is a bit more competition than Jennings at RB and while Dippre's main role would be as a blocker they could use a 3rd OT for that role too vs. giving him a gameday active spot to do only that, which might make him more of a PS squad guy.

Lampe might have the best shot on paper because he's the only FB. But that's a spot you can justify passing on keeping someone and another team could cut someone too.

 

[BobDigital]

The week one 53? Cause some guys may be called up but not week one. So I will assume you mean that. Right now there are 6 guys with a good chance most would argue. Some way better than others.

Larison = 98% Chance

Lampe = 95% Chance. They do have other potential FB options i think... assuming they think they have one worth keeping.. but Lampe seems way in the lead.

Dipree = 95% Chance. Only way they don't keep him is if they don't think anyone is worth the 3rd TE spot. They may decide to go with just two guys and carry another OL or WR.

Ponder = 25% Chance. Has an uphill battle, but is also battling against more middle guys. Also this spot is more in flux as they don't seem to care as much about having traditional guys hold down traditional spots. They will be moving most everyone all over the line i think outside of a few people. This spot has 11 guys fighting for 10 or 9 spots. IF they keep 10 Ponder just needs to prove he is better than 1. 1 of Jennings, Chaissen, Tonga, Phams, ect... He has a shot to do that, particularly if someone goes down to start the year.

Chism = 25% Chance. They probably need to keep 6 WRs for this door to even be open. They will not carry him on the 53 to start unless they are confident they will lose him if they don't. That is up to him. I have said before i think he has a really good chance to blow up in the preseason and flash like Edelman did and Force the Pats to hold him or lose him. This is a lot more likely if they trade Boutte, Polk continue to show nothing and they decide (as they should) Bourne isn't worth his contract. If all 3 happen he may not have to absolutely blow up to make it.

Conley = 2% Chance. As a guard he should have a good chance... as that spot is weak. But Conley while a good prospect isn't as good as they others listed above. He is note worthy, but not as note worthy as them. They will keep likely 4 guards max. So after Onwenu who is a lock he has to beat 1 of Strange, Layden Robinson and Wes Schweitzer. All of which should be ahead of him and at least have some experience. His best chance may be to beat Wes, but he needs to show his ability to play 1 spot is more valuable than Wes Flexibility. He could beat Layden or Strange but then he needs to be a better guard. And among the above he is the easiest to stash so they will feel less need to put him on the 53.

 

[The Gr8est]

The week one 53? Cause some guys may be called up but not week one. So I will assume you mean that. Right now there are 6 guys with a good chance most would argue. Some way better than others.

Larison = 98% Chance

Lampe = 95% Chance. They do have other potential FB options i think... assuming they think they have one worth keeping.. but Lampe seems way in the lead.

Dipree = 95% Chance. Only way they don't keep him is if they don't think anyone is worth the 3rd TE spot. They may decide to go with just two guys and carry another OL or WR.

Ponder = 25% Chance. Has an uphill battle, but is also battling against more middle guys. Also this spot is more in flux as they don't seem to care as much about having traditional guys hold down traditional spots. They will be moving most everyone all over the line i think outside of a few people. This spot has 11 guys fighting for 10 or 9 spots. IF they keep 10 Ponder just needs to prove he is better than 1. 1 of Jennings, Chaissen, Tonga, Phams, ect... He has a shot to do that, particularly if someone goes down to start the year.

Chism = 25% Chance. They probably need to keep 6 WRs for this door to even be open. They will not carry him on the 53 to start unless they are confident they will lose him if they don't. That is up to him. I have said before i think he has a really good chance to blow up in the preseason and flash like Edelman did and Force the Pats to hold him or lose him. This is a lot more likely if they trade Boutte, Polk continue to show nothing and they decide (as they should) Bourne isn't worth his contract. If all 3 happen he may not have to absolutely blow up to make it.

Conley = 2% Chance. As a guard he should have a good chance... as that spot is weak. But Conley while a good prospect isn't as good as they others listed above. He is note worthy, but not as note worthy as them. They will keep likely 4 guards max. So after Onwenu who is a lock he has to beat 1 of Strange, Layden Robinson and Wes Schweitzer. All of which should be ahead of him and at least have some experience. His best chance may be to beat Wes, but he needs to show his ability to play 1 spot is more valuable than Wes Flexibility. He could beat Layden or Strange but then he needs to be a better guard. And among the above he is the easiest to stash so they will feel less need to put him on the 53.

Is Owenu really a lock if he shows up out of shape and insufficiently motivated?

 

[BobDigital]

Is Owenu really a lock if he shows up out of shape and insufficiently motivated?

This is just kind of an odd point to make. I mean, if you are trying to say no one is a 100% lock, sure. You're right. Anyone can be kicked off this team if they decide to make themselves more trouble than they are worth. Including Maye, Gonzo or anyone else. And yeah, they will probably take more crap from some players compared to others. I was just assuming he would show up and be a pro, no reason to assume he won't imo.

 

[rochrist]

Chism, Larison and probably a TE.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Is Owenu really a lock if he shows up out of shape and insufficiently motivated?

The answer is yes he's a lock because his cap hit is $19.5M post June 1st. However, this is his last year to prove whether he'll be here after this season. Same with Dugger, Rham and possibly Barmore. If this season is a bust, expect a big purge.

 

[bakes781]

After watching this i don't know how Conley doesn't make it.

 

[Headcase]

Is Owenu really a lock if he shows up out of shape and insufficiently motivated?

Based on his contract, yes.

 

[scott99]

I think it’s a perfect storm for Lam Larrison to make the team. The Pats really only have 3 running backs that are locks. Stevenson, Henderson and Gibson should be locks. Larrison will be the 4th back.

 

[TommyD4207]

Larison. AFAIK, there's still only 4 RBs in the room, right?

I see Dipree taking over for Bell.

Outside of that, I can't give 50%+ better chance on any of them. Do I think a Chism or Conley have a good chance to make the team? Yeah, but that's like, better than 0% chance.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Larison is close to a lock. Some of the others like Lampe will start out on the PS and be elevated a couple of times. These guys went undrafted for a reason, and keeping them on the PS for a few weeks isn't much of a risk.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Is Owenu really a lock if he shows up out of shape and insufficiently motivated?

If he doesn’t ( show up in shape and motivated) he’s a moron. He has to know that Vrabel isn’t screwing around, and he has a ton of money to lose if they let him go. He’s certainly not going to get another deal like that anytime soon.

 

[Grogan14]

I doubt pats will be able to trade Boutte. No one is giving up a draft pick for him. He could be cut depending on how Chism and Bourne look in TC.
If you look at it objectively, Boutte is faster, more experienced and shown he can play.
So Chism has to excel to beat out Boutte

 

[palialka]

I voted for Larison and Chism as I think both bring a good skill set for positions of real need on the Pats.

Lampe has a chance to make the 53 because of McDaniels affinity for FBs but I think he heads to the PS. Conley also has a shot but I see him ending up on the PS shadow roster.

 

[n1997y]

Who is this Ian Iarison? Or, why does Lan Larison not get to have his name capitalized when all the others do?

I was sold on Ian, or Lan, even before I saw this report. After watching it I think he’s likely a lock. He’d never make it to PS. It wouldn’t surprise me if he ends up being our #1 returner as well as an outstanding gunner on ST. And very possibly RB3. He might make Mondre expendable.

 

[Brotherblues]

I think there's a better than 50% chance one UDFA makes the week 1 roster. Maybe even 2.

To call any individual UDFA over 50% (or 98% as one post suggests) is a sign the darkest days of the off-seasonpocalypse are taking a serious toll on some people's minds.

 

[EMpats]

I think there's a better than 50% chance one UDFA makes to the week 1 roster. Maybe even 2.

To call any individual UDFA over 50% (or 98% as one post suggests) is a sign the darkest days of the off-seasonpocalypse are taking a serious toll on some people's minds.

You are absolutely right. There isn’t an undrafted free agent in NFL history who has a >90% chance of making the roster before he set foot on the field, let alone one team having 3-4 of them. For some reason, undrafted free agents get romanticized greater than mid round draft picks who were much more highly rated than them. Remember, as much as the pats wanted these guys, they wanted a long snapper and Kobe minor more