A Guy from Taunton Named DeCosta with the Winning Approach to the Draft

[KCSVEN]

KCSVEN -

You write -

"Again, I only analyzed first round trades...
"I'm not arguing to always trade up, though historically in round 1, outside of getting a future 1 or 2, that is percentage wise the better play."

How many years did you analyze/research of first round trades and how many trades in total?
How did you evaluate who won the trade?
What was the percentage of winners vs losers?

Could you please share your analysis?

There were 25 trades with 18 being a win for the trade up team going back to 2016 thru 2023
Again this eliminated quarterback trades or when you received a future first round pick.
Some of the trades were obvious like getting Derrick Henry in the second round on the trade down is clearly a win.
Many of them ended up being clear but the some were close. I use PFF score, number of starts, number pro bowls, etc., to try to estimate a winner.

Of course it’s a small sample size. I’m not trying to say you should always trade up. I’m saying it’s a bad strategy to be always looking to trade down and accumulate more picks.
Your first thought should be if one of the top-tier players drops. How can I trade up to get him?

But there’s no hundred percent in any of this it just adds to the other data to help you maximize your draft

I think you look at the Eagles trade history you see what teams should be doing. Almost every year they trade up in the first round or near top of second round . Once you get past that area, they tend to trade down slightly to pick up future pics or an extra pick that’s only one round down like a 3rd for a 3rd and 4th or a 4th for next years 3rd

They are not the best team at scouting but they absolutely kill it in the first and second round, but they’re below average from the 3rd to the 7th
The reason they kill it in the first and second is cause they’re constantly trading up to get guys, they realize the impact players more often than not come with a higher pick.

Eagles are my poster boy for how you should work your draft picks

The Colts are probably been the best drafting team 88% of their starters came from their draft picks which is highest of any team, but they missed on the quarterback.
The Colts have the best scouting department and haven’t won anything while the Eagles have an average scouting department, but have a superior GM to work the draft

Eagles NFL draft-day trade history under GM Howie Roseman

With the Eagles looking to make moves, we've examined all of Howie Roseman's draft-day trades since taking the reins on two separate occasions.

theeagleswire.usatoday.com

 

[silentone]

I looked at 1994-1996 (I wanted to start with when salary cap came into play) and found most of the trades up required paying a premium to the trade value charts (using Rich Hill 2025). I may look at more years to confirm but am guessing it will be similar.

Please consider this for a sec -
If you agree that teams trading up pay a premium in general and you also believe that your research shows that trading up is a winning strategy, then by definition aren't you saying the trade value charts are wrong. No disrespect, but I have more confidence in the trade value charts that have a lot of research behind them going back to 1993 than your conclusions based on the 25 trades you looked at.

I will continue to believe that trading down, when the other team pays you a meaninful premium, is a winning strategy, and that trading up, and paying a meaningful premium, in general is a losing strategy.

(I agree with you that there are times, for example, when a top player slides a lot, you should be open to "overpay" to get that player but many times the trade up doesn't involve a highly rated player slidding, rather it's a team just really likes a player and wants to get them.)

 

[silentone]

There were 25 trades with 18 being a win for the trade up team going back to 2016 thru 2023
Again this eliminated quarterback trades or when you received a future first round pick.
Some of the trades were obvious like getting Derrick Henry in the second round on the trade down is clearly a win.
Many of them ended up being clear but the some were close. I use PFF score, number of starts, number pro bowls, etc., to try to estimate a winner.

Of course it’s a small sample size. I’m not trying to say you should always trade up. I’m saying it’s a bad strategy to be always looking to trade down and accumulate more picks.
Your first thought should be if one of the top-tier players drops. How can I trade up to get him?

But there’s no hundred percent in any of this it just adds to the other data to help you maximize your draft

I think you look at the Eagles trade history you see what teams should be doing. Almost every year they trade up in the first round or near top of second round . Once you get past that area, they tend to trade down slightly to pick up future pics or an extra pick that’s only one round down like a 3rd for a 3rd and 4th or a 4th for next years 3rd

They are not the best team at scouting but they absolutely kill it in the first and second round, but they’re below average from the 3rd to the 7th
The reason they kill it in the first and second is cause they’re constantly trading up to get guys, they realize the impact players more often than not come with a higher pick.

Eagles are my poster boy for how you should work your draft picks

The Colts are probably been the best drafting team 88% of their starters came from their draft picks which is highest of any team, but they missed on the quarterback.
The Colts have the best scouting department and haven’t won anything while the Eagles have an average scouting department, but have a superior GM to work the draft

Eagles NFL draft-day trade history under GM Howie Roseman

With the Eagles looking to make moves, we've examined all of Howie Roseman's draft-day trades since taking the reins on two separate occasions.

theeagleswire.usatoday.com

I looked at 1994-1996 (I wanted to start with when salary cap came into play) and found most of the trades up required paying a premium to the trade value charts (using Rich Hill 2025). I may look at more years to confirm but am guessing it will be similar.

Please consider this for a sec -
If you agree that teams trading up pay a premium in general and you also believe that your research shows that trading up is a winning strategy, then by definition aren't you saying the trade value charts are wrong. No disrespect, but I have more confidence in the trade value charts that have a lot of research behind them going back to 1993 than your conclusions based on the 25 trades you looked at.

I will continue to believe that trading down, when the other team pays you a meaninful premium, is a winning strategy, and that trading up, and paying a meaningful premium, in general is a losing strategy.

(I agree with you that there are times, for example, when a top player slides a lot, you should be open to "overpay" to get that player but many times the trade up doesn't involve a highly rated player slidding, rather it's a team just really likes a player and wants to get them.)

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[KCSVEN]

der this for a sec -
If you agree that teams trading up pay a premium in general and you also believe that your research shows that trading up is a winning strategy, then by definition aren't you saying the trade value charts are wrong. No disrespect, but I have more confidence in the trade value charts that have a lot of research behind them going back to 1993 than your conclusions based on the 25 trades you looked at.

After 2011 collective bargaining the charts changed so you can't use the existing draft charts on pre 2011 drafts.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Quantity is its own quality. And half of first-rounders don’t pan out.

In 2013 Pats traded out of first round. In second they selected Jamie Collins and Dobson.