Vegas has Pats at 7.5 wins. (Updated: 8.5)

[BobDigital]

With a -134 which indicates they are hedging slightly towards us being over. But not enough to give them 8.5 o/u. So if you bet 100 and hit the over you gain $175. Bet the under at +108 and gain $208

Vegas seems confident the Pats are slightly more likely than not to win. 8 games. No more no less. But are also much more likely to only win 7 than win 9.

Pats get the Browns, Raiders, NYG, Falcons, Panthers and Steelers at home. Bengals, Bucs, Titans, Saints and Ravens on the road. Then of course 2x Dolphins, Bills, Jets.

Most of us from what I've gathered have the Pats better than 8-9. Are we overestimating this team or being underestimated? Personally i think the later.

Personally while i haven't betted in a while I'm considering take this. Even giving up another game to get a better pay out at 8,5o/u

The only games i think we are clearly inferior in are Bills x 2 and Ravens. Every other game is a very slight dog to favorite IMO. Bucs are primed for regression. Mayfield isn't having 2 years like that in a row. Bengals are scary on offense, but has their D improved all that much? They will be a winning team, but a true contender who should be a clear favorite over the Pats? I'm not sold. Steelers made some upgrades overall to the 52 but got worse at the QB spot. May be a net loss. Some of those bad teams from last year improved, but i don't think close to as much as we did.

Wins: ]@ Jets Jets Dolphins Falcons, Panthers, NYG, Raiders, Browns, @Saints, @Titans 10
Losses: @Bills Bills @Dolphins @Ravens @Bengals @Bucs Steelers (I think we are better than the Steelers, but gotta drop 1) 7

 

[Huckleberry1]

With a -134 which indicates they are hedging slightly towards us being over. But not enough to give them 8.5 o/u. So if you bet 100 and hit the over you gain $175. Bet the under at +108 and gain $208

Vegas seems confident the Pats are slightly more likely than not to win. 8 games. No more no less. But are also much more likely to only win 7 than win 9.

Pats get the Browns, Raiders, NYG, Falcons, Panthers and Steelers at home. Bengals, Bucs, Titans, Saints and Ravens on the road. Then of course 2x Dolphins, Bills, Jets.

Most of us from what I've gathered have the Pats better than 8-9. Are we overestimating this team or being underestimated? Personally i think the later.

I never bet, but I’m going to put $$$ on this. This team is going to win 9-10 games. They will take 4 out of their division alone.

 

[vicspats]

With a -134 which indicates they are hedging slightly towards us being over. But not enough to give them 8.5 o/u. So if you bet 100 and hit the over you gain $175. Bet the under at +108 and gain $208

Vegas seems confident the Pats are slightly more likely than not to win. 8 games. No more no less. But are also much more likely to only win 7 than win 9.

Pats get the Browns, Raiders, NYG, Falcons, Panthers and Steelers at home. Bengals, Bucs, Titans, Saints and Ravens on the road. Then of course 2x Dolphins, Bills, Jets.

Most of us from what I've gathered have the Pats better than 8-9. Are we overestimating this team or being underestimated? Personally i think the later.

Super Bowl or bust !!

 

[Give Kraft A Hand]

I’d probably take the over based on the schedule they have. If Diggs is healthy, 7 wins should be easy enough. You obviously have to consider that at the end of the season some teams who have already locked in a spot in the playoffs will sit their players which should give the Pats another win. They will probably flex between 6-10 wins based on how the new guys do and having a much better coaching staff.

 

[PatsFan2]

IF Diggs is a go Game 1 we're winning 11 maybe 12 games. We're playing a lot of Teams with ****ty QB's easy day for the Defense.; also on paper we have a competent Offense.

 

[KCSVEN]

I think there are several questions from a national perspective.
-Will Drake Maye make a step forward and will he stay healthy and play all 18 games
-How long will it take for a new coaching staff with a large number of new players to come together
-How will the draft picks actually perform and how much will they contribute

I think those are pretty big questions from a national perspective and you got to remember Vegas is trying to get equal bets on each side.
First year coaches generally have a low % of success though we've seen Commanders and Texans in recent years buck that trend that's still not the norm.

Obviously, Pats fans have argument to suggest those 3 things will all be good and thus think they will be over on wins. From a national perspective I think those are the major questions.

I think a somewhat weak schedule is probably the biggest thing in favor of going over.

Bengals, Bucs, Ravens and Bills twice are the playoff contenders they face. The only teams with a QB they face (QB=playoffs mostly). I don't fear any other QB's they face
Pitt has no QB, even if they sign Aaron. Tua is OK, but more a product of the system and Dolphins are kind of rebuilding. Add to the fact Vrabel teams also tend to have a game or 2 against superior teams that they win.

Will be interesting to see where we get the bye and what teams we play coming off byes etc.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I never bet, but I’m going to put $$$ on this. This team is going to win 9-10 games. They will take 4 out of their division alone.

Yea they "feel" 8-9 or 9-8 to me. They seem better than 7-10 which would only be a 3 game improvement from last year. 10 wins or above seems like they are overachieving.

Offensively they are better
Defensively they are better
Coaching they are WAY better

There is hope and it should be a fun year.

 

[Steve102]

Here's my little exercise I just did.

W Browns
W Raiders unless Tom plays
W NYG
W Falcons
W Panthers
w Steelers, little W, I am not that confident

L Bengals they will want revenge
W Bucs
W Titans no way Vrabel loses this one
W Saints
L Ravens
W/L Dolphins
L/L Bills
W/W Jets.

Jeezus that's 12. I guess I'd better rethink that. I legit think there's 9 to be had, but 12 is ludicrous.

 

[stinkypete]

The coaching upgrade and schedule alone would be enough to push this team to 7 wins.

I see this as a 6 or 7 seed playoff team if the new additions stay healthy and the rookies live halfway up to their billing. Given the tomato can schedule, I could see this team pushing 11 wins.

 

[stinkypete]

Here's my little exercise I just did.

W Browns
W Raiders unless Tom plays
W NYG
W Falcons
W Panthers
w Steelers, little W, I am not that confident

L Bengals they will want revenge
W Bucs
W Titans no way Vrabel loses this one
W Saints
L Ravens
W/L Dolphins
L/L Bills
W/W Jets.

Jeezus that's 12. I guess I'd better rethink that. I legit think there's 9 to be had, but 12 is ludicrous.

12 is not that unrealistic. We are better than most of these teams on paper, and hopefully better coached.

I see a 2021 type year where we feast on weak teams. The question is can we hold our own against the likes of Buffalo this time.

 

[Steve102]

The coaching upgrade and schedule alone would be enough to push this team to 7 wins.

I see this as a 6 or 7 seed playoff team if the new additions stay healthy and the rookies live halfway up to their billing. Given the tomato can schedule, I could see this team pushing 11 wins.

I 100% expect them to be ready every Sunday, and I think Vrabel's goal of being able to take advantage of bad football will indeed be a thing they do. I think they still have a soon to be 23 yr old QB that needs to learn to win in the NFL. I would not be shocked to see him have more than one three interception game. He's not Tom Brady. Cousins and Mayfield each threw 16 picks last year, I think he'll be under that, but I am not sure he'll be in the single digits. If he is, then that double digit win total is 100% in reach.

 

[denverpatsfan]

This is a .500 team. 7-9 wins. Vegas has that u/o right where is should be.

 

[mgteich]

I'd put us at 8-8, not counting Game 17.

 

[hornetfb85]

As long as we show improvement and show that we actually have a team deserving to be on an NFL football field, I’m good with however many wins we end up with. 7,8,9…doesn’t really matter to me as long as we show we’re going in the right direction

 

[40yrpatsfan]

Here's my little exercise I just did.

W Browns
W Raiders unless Tom plays
W NYG
W Falcons
W Panthers
w Steelers, little W, I am not that confident

L Bengals they will want revenge
W Bucs
W Titans no way Vrabel loses this one
W Saints
L Ravens
W/L Dolphins
L/L Bills
W/W Jets.

Jeezus that's 12. I guess I'd better rethink that. I legit think there's 9 to be had, but 12 is ludicrous.

The schedule is favorable for once. Without being overly optimistic or pessimistic:
AFCE: 3-3 (beat NYJ twice and MIA once)
AFCC: 2-2 (beat CLE, should beat PIT at home, lose at BAL & CIN)
NFCS: 3-1 (beat NO & CAR, should beat ATL at home, lose at TAM)
other: 3-0 (beat NYG & TN, should beat LV at home)
=11-6
(8-1 at home, 3-5 away)
Games that worry me: PIT-ATL-LV at home, TN away
Home games: PIT-CLE-ATL-CAR-LV-NYG-BUF-NYJ-MIA
Away games: BAL-CIN-TN-NO-TAM-BUF-NYJ-MIA

 

[PatsFan2]

Here's my little exercise I just did.

W Browns
W Raiders unless Tom plays
W NYG
W Falcons
W Panthers
w Steelers, little W, I am not that confident

L Bengals they will want revenge
W Bucs
W Titans no way Vrabel loses this one
W Saints
L Ravens
W/L Dolphins
L/L Bills
W/W Jets.

Jeezus that's 12. I guess I'd better rethink that. I legit think there's 9 to be had, but 12 is ludicrous.

Buffalo ain't taking us twice this year a split at the very least.

 

[signbabybrady]

I'd like to think with real coaching, year 2 of Maye, and an improved line that winning 3.5 more games than last year wouldn't be that tough especially given our schedule.

But 3.5 is a pretty big swing so I think the line is probably a fair one.

I was thinking I was going to bet this future but I'm not a fan of the line so that's another indication it's probably a decent line. If it was 6.5 I'd be betting it. At 7.5 I'll probably just use that money on the ponies instead.

 

[Steve102]

Buffalo ain't taking us twice this year a split at the very least.

They aren't winning 13 games, your grace, even with a softer schedule.

 

[sb1]

I wouldn't touch that bet at 7.5. Could go either way.

Our window hasn't started reopening yet but we're closer to that time than we were before.

 

[PatsFan2]

They aren't winning 13 games, your grace, even with a softer schedule.

Vrabel's mantra Run the Football play Tough Defense. What did Parcells once say?? Any Team that does those two things effectively will be in every game.