Mayoclinic Thoughts

[reflexblue]

The million $ question though, is, who do you take at 4 if you can't trade down?

We've been discussing that for months. I think 99%, if not 100%, agree trading down is the option we want. But you can't make a team trade up.

You have to pick someone at 4.

Of corse we would need to find a partner. I should have said if we can find a team that wants to move up. If we can’t i would take the BPA in an area of need, an example to me would be at LB, or DE. The other team can’t win if they can’t score

 

[Rdforty2]

Of corse we would need to find a partner. I should have said if we can find a team that wants to move up. If we can’t i would take the BPA in an area of need, an example to me would be at LB

But who's BPA? It's different for everyone.

I think Walker is in the discussion. But if Campbell's length is the only real flaw(which it is, anything else is coachable) and thst removes him, why doesn't Walker's? Walker is in the 10th percentile height, weight, AND length at edge.

Like I said, I think Walker is in the group you could potentially claim is BPA. But so is Campbell. It's not a stretch to see Campbell as BPA is all Im saying. You could say the same fkr 5 or 6 guys.

 

[reflexblue]

But who's BPA? It's different for everyone.

I think Walker is in the discussion. But if Campbell's length is the only real flaw(which it is, anything else is coachable) and thst removes him, why doesn't Walker's? Walker is in the 10th percentile height, weight, AND length at edge.

Like I said, I think Walker is in the group you could potentially claim is BPA. But so is Campbell. It's not a stretch to see Campbell as BPA is all Im saying. You could say the same fkr 5 or 6 guys.

From what ive been reading on here campbell has more issues than just length,footwork, stance how h blocks etc. i guess all those issues could be coached out of him, but maybe not.

 

[gobesmug]

We all hated BB's drafts. Brilliance and insanity intertwined. How one could possibly grade Jermaine Cunningham over Carlos Dunlap, or consider Ron Brace or Jordan Richards worthy of 2nd round picks, is beyond me.

Drafting is hard. Even the best miss 50% of the time or more, and it's different in real time. Mike Mayock was the smartest analyst around for years, and look at his 1st round picks - 5 no less in 3 years - for the Raiders:

2019 #4 - DE Clelin Ferrell
2019 #24 - RB Josh Jacobs
2020 #12 - WR Henry Ruggs
2020 #19 - CB Damon Arnette
2021 #17 - OL Alex Leatherwood

What a colossal waste of tremendous draft resources. But he did pick Maxx Crosby at #106 in 2019.

Welcome back Mayoclinic!!!

Clelin Ferrell over Josh Allen was a terrible choice.

Josh Jacobs was a solid pick for being at #24.

Henry Ruggs in his 2nd year was on pace for over 1,000 yards but injuries cost him a full season. If it wasn't for a poor decision who knows how his 3rd season and career would have turned out.

 

[Rdforty2]

From what ive been reading on here campbell has more issues than just length,footwork, stance how h blocks etc. i guess all those issues could be coached out of him, but maybe not.

Yeah, on here. That's the problem. Everyone has their opinion, and its great to hear from all angles.

Based on what you hear here from many, he's a guard only. No chance at tackle. Perhaps he ends up at guard, but most "exoerts" says he has the ability to stick at tackle long term. Experts can be wrong of course, but you have a wide variety of experts from media types to OL coaches to college coaches to NFL head coaches that say he can play tackle. So take that into consideration as well. Not just what this board thinks.

 

[State]

Wow, quite a year for ghosts showing back up. Glad to have you back. You’ve been missed.

Things are set in motion that can’t be undone.

 

[mayoclinic]

I've said what I would do: take ajosh Simmons at #4, and only trade back so far as I was fairly sure I could still get Simmons. I'm sure many will not agree with me, bit that's what I would do.

Get Simmons and you have the QB + LT foundation of your offense for a decade. AFTER that you can add talent as it falls, this year and beyond.

It's not worth it me taking Graham, Walker, Warren or Jeanty if it means losing out on Simmons, and I don't see any way to make that happen.

The good news is that in this draft there may well be players still available after 20 who you may have graded in your top 10. l

 

[State]

Get Simmons and you have the QB + LT foundation of your offense for a decade. AFTER that you can add talent as it falls, this year and beyond.

Mayo says to me, “That’ll do, Pig. That’ll do”

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

But who's BPA? It's different for everyone.

I think Walker is in the discussion. But if Campbell's length is the only real flaw(which it is, anything else is coachable) and thst removes him, why doesn't Walker's? Walker is in the 10th percentile height, weight, AND length at edge.

Like I said, I think Walker is in the group you could potentially claim is BPA. But so is Campbell. It's not a stretch to see Campbell as BPA is all Im saying. You could say the same fkr 5 or 6 guys.

Based on some eye test with limited sample size for Campbell it would really depend what scheme the pats are trying to run
If mcdaniels runs a gap heavy scheme I believe Campbell isn’t the best fit , i think Campbell excels in zone blocking schemes in the run game but he lacks power
It’s not only his wingspan what’s a problem imo

 

[reflexblue]

Yeah, on here. That's the problem. Everyone has their opinion, and its great to hear from all angles.

Based on what you hear here from many, he's a guard only. No chance at tackle. Perhaps he ends up at guard, but most "exoerts" says he has the ability to stick at tackle long term. Experts can be wrong of course, but you have a wide variety of experts from media types to OL coaches to college coaches to NFL head coaches that say he can play tackle. So take that into consideration as well. Not just what this board thinks.

Thats why. Vrable and the FO get payed the big bucks, to make these decisions. And if they screw up we will let them hear about it.

 

[Patriot Missile]

I was very much on board with Simmons until I started doing some research and saw how serious these types of patellar injuries are. The science and medicine have come so far since 2015. It basically went from a 50% career ender down to 25% done/or never quite the same. That’s still too high for me. Tbh, I don’t think I could find someone as big as Josh Simmons that’s had this type of injury. His mobility and movement are his greatest strength and if he loses any of it or has long term effects his career might be not as stellar or cut short. I’m not a doctor, I’m not a hypochondriac that goes looking for the bad either, but if I was going to draft someone at 4 I want all the intel and opinions I can get. Even at 10 it’s a tough call.

I think it’s possible he’s drafted at 10 or 11 by the Bears or 49ers. He might be the best LT in this draft or next. HOF potential. He also might have a very short career lingering effects with a might what might have been attached to it. It’s a tough call. I’ve seen so many analysts and posters call him the only real LT in this draft from initial scouting. It’s very frustrating.

 

[patchick]

I am comfortable taking Simmons at #4 if his medicals check out. I am not comfortable reaching for a player who I don't grade nearly that high, such as Campbell or Membou. Simmons has a chance to be worth the #4 pick. They do not, in any projection, for me.

First off, great to see you! I'm just poking my head back here after some years away too.

I absolutely agree on Simmons, but I just can't be optimistic on the medical front--or about trade-down opportunities As much as my instinctive reaction says RB at #4 is all kinds of wrong, I understand why more and more mocks seem to be going with Jeanty.

 

[Rdforty2]

I was very much on board with Simmons until I started doing some research and saw how serious these types of patellar injuries are. The science and medicine have come so far since 2015. It basically went from a 50% career ender down to 25% done/or never quite the same. That’s still too high for me. Tbh, I don’t think I could find someone as big as Josh Simmons that’s had this type of injury. His mobility and movement are his greatest strength and if he loses any of it or has long term effects his career might be not as stellar or cut short. I’m not a doctor, I’m not a hypochondriac that goes looking for the bad either, but if I was going to draft someone at 4 I want all the intel and opinions I can get. Even at 10 it’s a tough call.

I think it’s possible he’s drafted at 10 or 11 by the Bears or 49ers. He might be the best LT in this draft or next. HOF potential. He also might have a very short career lingering effects with a might what might have been attached to it. It’s a tough call. I’ve seen so many analysts and posters call him the only real LT in this draft from initial scouting. It’s very frustrating.

The two biggest I've seen were Lucas Niang and Cole Strange. Strange missed 12 months, jury still out.

Niang was a starter at the time of the injury. He missed 11 months, but never started another game. Stuck around as a depth piece for 2 years before being cut.

Simmons was hurt on 10/12. If he misses 12 months, he misses the first 6 games of the season. He'd have to miss 10.5 months to be ready opening day. That's doable, but for a guy making the jump to the league, seems like a tall order just to be healthy enough to see the field. That's not even taking into account if he'll be back to his previous athletic level.

And for the record, I absolutely wouldn't go go the level of saying Simmons is an HOF talent. I'd give you better than Campbell had he sustained his success but absolutely not on Alt's level from just a year ago.

 

[manxman2601]

The two biggest I've seen were Lucas Niang and Cole Strange. Strange missed 12 months, jury still out.

Niang was a starter at the time of the injury. He missed 11 months, but never started another game. Stuck around as a depth piece for 2 years before being cut.

Simmons was hurt on 10/12. If he misses 12 months, he misses the first 6 games of the season. He'd have to miss 10.5 months to be ready opening day. That's doable, but for a guy making the jump to the league, seems like a tall order just to be healthy enough to see the field. That's not even taking into account if he'll be back to his previous athletic level.

And for the record, I absolutely wouldn't go go the level of saying Simmons is an HOF talent. I'd give you better than Campbell had he sustained his success but absolutely not on Alt's level from just a year ago.

And missing the pre-season and camp probably holds him back year one even if he does make it on the field.

 

[Brotherblues]

I haven't posted since 2015, when the NFL suspended Tom Brady for the Ideal Gas Law. I decided that the Sinaloa and Cali cartels were more deserving of support than the one that calls itself the NFL. Haven't watched much since then and don't follow as closely. Lurk once in a while.

I haven't followed the draft discussion on the board very actively, but FWIW, here are a few thoughts:

General Thoughts

1. Every draft is different, there are opportunities and mistakes to be made every year. This one is thin at the top but very, very deep. If I compare this year's pool to last year's, last year had a strong top 25, but this year has quality going out at least mid-day 3. There will be hall of fame players to come out of this draft; they may be as likely to come day 2 or even 3 as day 1.

2. The draft every year tends to follow a pattern: the mediot hype machine ramps into overdrive, and everyone buys into the hype. People salivate over "can't miss" prospects. Some NFL teams buy into the hype; for others, their GMs and Scouts do their own work, and the draft inevitably veers off course, and the mediots try to correct on the fly. "Generational" and "can't miss" prospects often turn out to be far less, and gems sneak through the cracks.

3. Last year was pretty easy. The Pats desperately needed a QB, had the #3 pick, and there were 3 top ones. I personally had Drake Maye rated as my favorite QB prospect since Andrew Luck, and was thrilled. Many considered him a "boom or bust" prospect. That alone made it a great draft. I thought the Pats tried to fill needs much too much, and ignored values. In particular, I had a top 25 grade on Cooper De Jean and was screaming when he slipped to day 2.

4. I generally rate trajectory and traits above productivity. The latter is important, but so much depends on how a player is used, what they are asked to do, and how they are coached. Look at Nick Scourton at Purdue vs. Texas A&M, for example.

5. I am a build around the lines guy. All positions are important and have value, but other than QB I value line prospects (both OL and DL) over all others, and "playmakers" probably less than other positions, just based on the number of opportunities they have to impact a play. I would never, for example, have taken Ja'Marr Chase over Penei Sewell in 2021 - both were great players, but for me the lineman would be my choice to build my team.

The 2025 Draft

1. This draft for me is all about 1 player: Josh Simmons. The Pats need a LT like they needed a QB in 2024, and I rate a healthy Simmons above Joe Alt (2024 #5), Ola Fashanu (2024 #10), Paris Johnson (2023 #6), Andrew Thomas (2020 #4), Rashawn Slater (2021 #13), Ikem Ekwonu (2022 #4) and Charles Cross (2022 #8). For me, the sine qua non for a dominant LT is their footwork and movement skills, and Simmons shines. His 10" hands are a great asset. He needs to get stronger and meaner, and there are maturity questions, but for me a healthy Josh Simmons would be a no-brainer for me at #4. Patellar tendon is a nasty injury, but if his medicals check out, I'd take him at #4 over anyone else, though I'd prefer a trade back to the 7-10 range. I'm convinced he will come off the board in the to 20 picks, with San Francisco (11), Dallas (12), and Arizona (16) as possible landing spots. He's that good. Take Simmons with your 1st pick, and then let the draft come to you. In my first mock (pre-Bowl Games, Combines, and FA), I had the Pats trading back from #4 to #9 and #40 with NO (for Abdul Carter, no less, as at that point I had Shedeur Sanders going top 3) and then trading back up into the 1st with the #38 and #40 picks.

2. I would NOT spend a top 10 pick on Will Campbell or Armand Membou. I'd gladly trade #50 and #173 to move up to #48 for Campbell (shades of 2001), but top 10 to me is ridiculous. The rumor mill is that the Pats love him and will mostly likely take him at #4, but I will personally barf if that happens. Membou is very athletic but raw and immature. I don't think he will make a great LT.

3. The hype machine is all over Travis Hunter and Ahmed Carter. I have questions about both. Hunter has unbelievable vision, ball skills, and endurance, but he has questions about positional fit and durability as a pro. Carter has tremendous burst, but he has only 1 year of experience as an edge rusher, is mainly a speed demon, and has had shoulder and foot injuries.

4. Ashton Jeanty is pound for pound the best and safest player in this draft. He will be an All Pro. The question is for how many years? No one would hesitate if he had a 10 year career, but by the end of his 1st contract will he be too beat up to still be an impact player?

5. I love the versatility of Jalon Walker and Tyler Warren. Not my first options at #4, but I would take either over Campbell/Membou, as I have them graded much higher. My top 7 players look something Like Hunter, Carter, Walker, Warren, Graham, Jeanty and Simmons. I would probably take Josh Conerly over Campbell and Membou as a pure LT prospect.

6. I don't see many good LT prospects slip to #38, so it's either take one at #4 (or with a trade back) or trade up. Donovan Jackson seems to be falling through the cracks. He filled in well at LT for Ohio St. and got better quickly. He's not a pure LT, but he could probably upgrade the position and then be moved inside in a year or 2. I'd consider him at #38 if available even if we go OT in the 1st round.

7. Other guys who I like in the 1st and would consider trading up for if we went OL with #4 (or a trade down): Jalon Walker, Tyler Warren, Shemar Stewart, Walter Nolen, Colston Loveland, Jihaad Campbell, Derrick Harmon. I'd look to see who slips. This will be a very subjective trade, and the order from 12-40 is totally up in the air. Some guys will slip, possibly even to day 2.

8. Guys I like day 2 if available: Donovan Jackson, Mason Taylor, Elijah Arroyo, Luther Burden,

"I haven't followed this very much tbh"

Proceeds to show more knowledge, understanding, and thoughtfulness than 98% of those of us who've been following this every day.

 

[mayoclinic]

Hardly.

I'm no "expert". Just as likely to be wrong as anyone else.

One of the things I find interesting about the draft is just how hard it is to predict success. The guys with 20 years experience who do this year round for a living still make tons of mistakes.

I'll stick to my opinions, but this is humbling stuff. I also never try to guess what teams will do, just what ai think they should.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Tbh, I don’t think I could find someone as big as Josh Simmons that’s had this type of injury.

Cole Strange is 6'5" and 307. Simmons is 6'5" and 310. Strange is recovering from the same injury. I even read that Simmons' injury is less severe than Strange's but I have no way to confirm that.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Dont forget Bacon grundle candy

Mayo clinic, Manxman, patchick . . . a true reunion of the draft forum legends! Good year.

Welcome back everyone! This forum is richer for having you in it, and we are blessed for having some of the best draft analysis on the internet because of it. Thanks again for all you do to help folks like me enjoy the draft process even more.

 

[manxman2601]

Welcome back everyone! This forum is richer for having you in it, and we are blessed for having some of the best draft analysis on the internet because of it. Thanks again for all you do to help folks like me enjoy the draft process even more.

I sometimes visit other team boards when I’m researching mocks. I’ve never found one as detailed and informed as this one.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Damn bro. Welcome back. A couple of years ago someone told me they thought you passed away. He has risen!

I’m taking Warren and trading up for Simmons. 38, 69 and 5th.