Greg Bedard seems to think the Pats may be making a blockbuster trade soon

[Huckleberry1]

There is no way they would ask for that if they actually intended to trade him. Because there is no way any sane team would pay that.

That was the projected asking price for Garrett and he’s 29 and Parsons is 25. Both are DPOY caliber players, and I see Parsons as significantly more valuable because his age.

I would to see a debate about it here to see if we can narrow it down as close as possible to the actual projected asking price, but from what I have heard and read the two firsts and two seconds is close to what it would take.

 

[signbabybrady]

That was the projected asking price for Garrett and he’s 29 and Parsons is 25. Both are DPOY caliber players, and I see Parsons as significantly more valuable because his age.

I would to see a debate about it here to see if we can narrow it down as close as possible to the actual projected asking price, but from what I have heard and read the two firsts and two seconds is close to what it would take.

My first thought was if that's what Cleveland was really asking for they obviously never got it so I'm not sure how much that rumor is worth. But then I remembered Khalil Mack went for multiple firsts a few years ago when the Raiders moved him to Chicago. So I guess that's where I'd start if I was Dallas or Cleveland too.

 

[vicspats]

Take this for what it worth, but when someone on Twitter asked Bedard that since he has been alluding to the Patriots making a blockbuster trade, was he speculating or does he know they are in the market for a big time trade, Bedard responded "I know".

I mean it could be nothing. It could be the Pats are trying desperately and will be rebuffed at every attempt. But let the speculation begin what the trade might be.

Ha… all he “knows” is that it “could” happen … well played !!

 

[dliverey44]

What I said was fact. X is A LOT more useful and informative than bluesky football news.
I don't see anyone posting useful football links from bluesky accounts.
Just because I triggered a Wib Todd doesn't make me, or 75% of X/Twitter users, a bot (as someone said 300M out of 360M users are bots)
If you don't like the app don't use. It's simple. A lot on here agree and don't use X or any other social apps.

I went for cheap comedy that made me laugh. I use twitter/X and Bluesky but you are right there is much more useful info on X for football related info.

 

[Lansdowne]

Twitter is more useful for football-related info than BlueSky, and Twitter is a bot-infested cesspool. Both things are true. Also I’d probably trust a bot before I trust Bedard.

 

[UGAPatsfan]

Twitter is more useful for football-related info than BlueSky, and Twitter is a bot-infested cesspool. Both things are true. Also I’d probably trust a bot before I trust Bedard.

Why the Bedard hate? I actually really like BSJ’s coverage. He calls it like it is to my eye.

 

[Ross12]

Why the Bedard hate? I actually really like BSJ’s coverage. He calls it like it is to my eye.

Sometimes he just says crap on his podcast/on TV/on Twitter which gets aggregated and somewhat taken out of context, and he gets bent out of shape about it. Other times he legitimately just puts his foot in his mouth and says something that is very easy to take in a certain context when he didn't actually mean it that way (like the subject of this post), and again gets bent out of shape about it.

Long story short, I think he is solid (I also like BSJ) but he's definitely his own personality. Tends to get pissy at other people over his own screw ups. Not everyone is going to like that fact. IMO, it's not a big deal - you take it into consideration as part of the total package. The good outweighs the bad. Don't need my sports reporters to be perfect angels.

 

[Steve102]

Don't need my sports reporters to be perfect angels.

 

[TommyD4207]

Why the Bedard hate? I actually really like BSJ’s coverage. He calls it like it is to my eye.

When he's actually covering something, and has something to say, it's fine.
When he's clickbaiting and vagueposting, it's ****ing annoying.

 

[UGAPatsfan]

When he's actually covering something, and has something to say, it's fine.
When he's clickbaiting and vagueposting, it's ****ing annoying.

I think he gets aggregated a lot…and he hates it. Issue with aggregation these days is it almost always leads to being taken out of context.

Friggin AI news cycle.

He was one of the first to elude to all not being well with the Mayo experiment.

 

[Huckleberry1]

My first thought was if that's what Cleveland was really asking for they obviously never got it so I'm not sure how much that rumor is worth. But then I remembered Khalil Mack went for multiple firsts a few years ago when the Raiders moved him to Chicago. So I guess that's where I'd start if I was Dallas or Cleveland too.

I don’t think it ever got to the point where Cleveland put a price out for Garrett, what I was going by was discussions on some draft podcasts that touched on the topic, and what they were speculating the price would be.

 

[Grogan14]

Hi Sam - (I had some trouble posting the links - if this doesn't work, I'll try again)

Rich Hill model (Patspulpit)2018 NFL Draft Value Chart
https://www.patspulpit.com/2018/4/21/17256758/2018-nfl-draft-value-chart-rich-
www.patspulpit.com/2018/4/21/17256758/2018-nfl-draft-value-chart-rich-hill
Doesn’t overvalue top picks as heavily as JJ


Fitzgerald-Spielberger Chart (Over the Cap):
NFL Draft Trade Value Chart | Over the Cap
overthecap.com/draft-trade-value-chart
They also have a book called The Drafting Stage

Chase Stuart Draft Value Chart (Football Perspective):

Draft Value Chart

Here are the values for the draft value chart in Post II on this subject, published on November 19th, 2012, along with the Jimmy Johnson/NFL values: Here are the values for the draft value chart in Post I on this subject, published on November 13th, 2012: Pk,FP Val,JJ Val 1,34.6,3000 2,30.2,2600...

www.footballperspective.com

NFL Draft Value Chart (Open Source Football)

Open Source Football: NFL Draft Value Chart

Constructing surplus value from scratch.

opensourcefootball.com

I really think this is helpful with other charts. It gets a little geeky but looks at surplus value of each pick. It comes to a counter intuitive conclusion(s) that the most valuable pick in the draft, in terms of surplus value is the 12th pick. So it concludes the 12th pick has more surplus value than the 4th meaning the cost savings at 12 outweigh the 4th pick being that much better (obviously each draft is different). The other thing they do of interest is remove QB’s from their analysis as the Qb’s skew the top few picks in most years.

The Loser’s Curse: (Decision Making and Market Efficiency in the NFL Draft) written by behavioral economists Cade Massey (Wharton) & Richard Thaler (U Chicago) in 2013.
https://faculty.wharton.upenn.edu/w...sers-curse---management-science-july-2013.pdf

faculty.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/massey---thaler---losers-curse--management-science-july-2013.pdf
It's a little outdated but they were some of the early pioneers to point out….
Top picks are overvalued (same as Open Source’s more recent conclusion.
Front offices are overconfident in forecasting
Many NFL trades demonstrate inefficient pricing.

A couple quick thoughts relating to previous comments by other forum members.
I hope the Pats don’t trade up, seems like a losing strategy based on the above last two links. In a perfect world, the Pats would trade down to 10-13 the sweet spot of surplus value, however they need to find a LT. I would love to see a trade to six as long the Raiders agree to not take a LT and the Pats don’t feel there is a big difference between Campbell & Membou. If both are then available at six I would try make the same trade with Panthers at 8. Also, I think the Pats will have to overpay, probably by a lot, to trade up from second round into the 20’s.

Thank you for the information!! Appreciate it.
I agree with the premise that the trade value chart needs to be modified each year based on the talent distribution.
For example this year:

picks 1-3 should have very high value relative to lower picks because of the drop off at 4
picks at the bottom of the first round and 2nd round throughout should have relatively high value because of lack of drop-off until mid 2nd round.

I guess the main point is draft value charts should not be one size fits all but adjusted each year based on perceived talent distribution

 

[TommyD4207]

I think he gets aggregated a lot…and he hates it. Issue with aggregation these days is it almost always leads to being taken out of context.

Friggin AI news cycle.

He was one of the first to elude to all not being well with the Mayo experiment.

I mean that's fair on one hand.
On the other, he's the one doing the vagueposting, which he knows very well will get picked up by algos, so..

 

[Hawaiipatsfan2]

If you watch the videos both our Offensive and defensive coaching assistiants are buzzing about Hunter.

Can I also say I said Vrabels ties to Cleveland could make this a possibility,
And if it happens to the people who laughed and ridiculed me.
I hope you enjoy Watching Travis ball out if it happens:

We laugh and ridicule you because you have your lips around hunters ****.

 

[signbabybrady]

We laugh and ridicule you because you have your lips around hunters ****.

He's the best prospect in this draft

 

[Love The Drake]

We laugh and ridicule you because you have your lips around hunters ****.

lol isn’t your national sport seeing how fast you can crack a coconut?
What do you know about football?
I like Hunter cause he is the best prospect.
If there was a kicker who could make FGs from 80 yds away guess who I would be glossing?

 

[pazrul72]

That was the projected asking price for Garrett and he’s 29 and Parsons is 25. Both are DPOY caliber players, and I see Parsons as significantly more valuable because his age.

I would to see a debate about it here to see if we can narrow it down as close as possible to the actual projected asking price, but from what I have heard and read the two firsts and two seconds is close to what it would take.

Thats way too high an ask and no way would i pay it, though i want him here badly. He would be a huge final missing piece the defense needs to be dominant. I am however coming at it from a Patriots point of view where we know at least half of those picks are in the top 5 of the round and thus WAY more valuable then say if the Steelers wanted him. There is a big difference in moving up from 12 to 4 rather then say getting say 25. Same thing in the second round there is more value in trading to a cellar dweller, qhich the Pats are right now. I think the highest i would go would be swapping 4 and 12 plus sending them either 38 OR Atlantas 3rd and a 2nd next year. More then that they can pound sand and deal with not having the money to sign him. I think this scenario depends on Carter falling to 4 so we wont see any trade until we are on the clock. Only way it males sense for Dallas is if they get the younger cheap rookie version to replace him.

 

[UGAPatsfan]

lol isn’t your national sport seeing how fast you can crack a coconut?
What do you know about football?
I like Hunter cause he is the best prospect.
If there was a kicker who could make FGs from 80 yds away guess who I would be glossing?

I watched him run routes…****ing WOOF. Terrible form, sloppy angles, and slow as hell getting off the line.

That said, I don’t believe that’s ability as much as him not having been dedicated to WR and coached up.

But does illustrate that they need to feel good about him being down to ONLY play WR for at least a year.

Still don’t see him falling to them at 4 though.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

I think we would be looking at the 25’ 1st round pick (4), the 26’ 1st round pick, the 25’ 2nd round pick, and the 26’ 2nd round pick for Parsons. And 40 million a season to sign him.

That would be totally bat-bleep crazy. Insane. No way I would do anything even close to that. Only someone like Kraft or Wolf would be that stooopid. Remember that it is a buyers market--the 'Boys want to move him so hold out for a way better deal. In fact I don't think any deal for Parsons makes much sense; the Patriots have a lot of holes to fill so they need all the picks they can scrounge up.

Instead the Patriots need to trade down from 4 if Carter still on the board. Some team with an idiot owner (like the Cowboys) would give the Patriots a boatload of picks for Carter.....then the Patriots can start to fill in the holes through the draft if the draft team can be trusted which is no sure thing considering last year.

 

[silentone]

Thank you for the information!! Appreciate it.
I agree with the premise that the trade value chart needs to be modified each year based on the talent distribution.
For example this year:

picks 1-3 should have very high value relative to lower picks because of the drop off at 4
picks at the bottom of the first round and 2nd round throughout should have relatively high value because of lack of drop-off until mid 2nd round.

I guess the main point is draft value charts should not be one size fits all but adjusted each year based on perceived talent distribution

Thanks Sam, Yup, I think that makes sense about making adjustments. Personally, I don't mentally deviate too far from the charts as I don't think NFL front offices are great at judging talent. Also, I think the trade value charts incorporate salaries which is an aspect that seems to be easily overlooked. When trading down for multiple picks, not only are you getting more shots at a good player, they are at lower salaries which is important. Conversely, is you miss on a high pick (like #4) you are creating a lot of negative surplus value. I think this is captured nicely in the last two links - the open platform one and "the loser's curse". If you have the time and interest, i'd be curious what you think of "The loser's curse".