Draft worst case has emerged for Pats at 4

[Huckleberry1]

The BOTTOM LINE is that Campbell or Membou can contribute more than others over 4 years than any of the other players who will be drafted.

If Hunter and Carter are gone, how is getting the top player (or close) on our board in any way a disaster?

If we believe that no one is worth trading up for and 4-10 are about the same, then there is no disaster in picking on of the top 2 or 3 on our board (one of Campbell or Membou).

If Vrabel truly likes them equally, then trading down a couple of spots shouldn't lose them both. Say that we are offered a 4th. Should we not accept because the trade isn't worth it and draft Campbell or Membou? Or should we take the 4th and then take Campbell or Membou?

Obviously, if we have others higher on our board with Campbell and Membou much lower, the situation is very different.

My very strong decision is that Vrabel will listen to offers and then draft Campbell as folks have been saying for weeks. And, just BTW, Campbell and Membou both seem to be in the 4-10 grouping of red chip players.

I think this is how it’s going to play out as well. There will be a lot of *****ing about it here, but I think both Campbell and Membou will end up being really good pro’s. And particularly in Campbell’s case I think he will end up being their left tackle for years to come.

 

[Sect140]

Yup, Wolf and Groh suck. Groh has been doing a lot of contract stuff (less draft stuff) with "her name is forgotten" having left. Groh is a lawyer and sucks at the draft. Wolf sucks too. I am hoping they are both gone the week after the draft. BB lost it by hiring those two.

Since Vrabel was hired I thought Wolf would be gone after the draft.

 

[Lansdowne]

Its a pipe dream to think the Raiders are moving up for a QB this year. Geno just signed andextension and Pete adores him. They are not in a transition mode of a bridge QB with Geno's salary. They will build the team over the next 2 years and then address QB.

Agreed. $66 million guaranteed and Carroll went out of his way to get him. We can’t count on the Raiders operating the way the Falcons did last year (i.e. throwing a bunch of guaranteed money at a veteran QB only to draft his replacement in the first round anyway). The Raiders are more likely to take a Day 3 flier on a developmental QB instead and then revisit the position down the line.

As far as trading up for Sanders, I think the only two teams with a remote interest in doing so might be the Saints (who last took a QB in the first round 54 years ago) or the Steelers (who might not feel compelled to pay the steep price it would take to move up 17 spots). I think if any team trades up with the Pats, it’ll be for a non-QB that that team covets the most.

 

[KCSVEN]

Going to be a boring but quick first round. Looks like:

Ward
Hunter
Carter
Campbell
Graham
Jeanty
Membou
Walker

Those are highly likely the first 8 picks, can you wager an 8 pick parlay?

Then Saints are where uncertainty starts

 

[dliverey44]

Going to be a boring but quick first round. Looks like:

Ward
Hunter
Carter
Campbell
Graham
Jeanty
Membou
Walker

Those are highly likely the first 8 picks, can you wager an 8 pick parlay?

Then Saints are where uncertainty starts

I would not be surprised to see the Giants take Mason Graham. They are pretty set at OLB but need help on the DL, while it may not be ideal but Mason Graham could fit in well as a 3-4 DE.

 

[KCSVEN]

I would not be surprised to see the Giants take Mason Graham. They are pretty set at OLB but need help on the DL, while it may not be ideal but Mason Graham could fit in well as a 3-4 DE.

Graham is absolutely a better fit than Carter for what they have on the line now but I think Joe Schoen is on the hot seat and won't pass on Carter since he's a consensus #2 in the draft. I think he'll do anything to avoid criticism with that pick and just take the consensus best player available.

 

[patfanken]

So, after 10 pages of discussion, can we agree on the following.

a. Teams below us have little incentive to trade up to #4 a pay a premium.

b. Carter and Hunter are VERY likely to be gone before we pick.

c. Those teams who MIGHT be looking to trade up, can get what they want by trading up with teams picking behind us like the Jags.

d. So, in the end, we are VERY likely to have to make a pick at #4 and get a "red chip" athlete. A guy who will likely be a solid starter and improve our team, but not someone with a superstar ceiling. This isn't anyone's fault. It's just the reality of the draft and it's vagaries

e. Our 3 best options at #4 are: Campbell, Membou, Walker and Graham. (edit: I added Walker as a distinct possibility since an Edge rusher is almost as big a need as OT imho)

 

[dliverey44]

So, after 10 pages of discussion, can we agree on the following.

a. Teams below us have little incentive to trade up to #4 a pay a premium.

b. Carter and Hunter are VERY likely to be gone before we pick.

c. Those teams who MIGHT be looking to trade up, can get what they want by trading up with teams picking behind us like the Jags.

d. So, in the end, we are VERY likely to have to make a pick at #4 and get a "red chip" athlete. A guy who will likely be a solid starter and improve our team, but not someone with a superstar ceiling. This isn't anyone's fault. It's just the reality of the draft and it's vagaries

e. Our 3 best options at #4 are: Campbell, Membou, Walker and Graham. (edit: I added Walker as a distinct possibility since an Edge rusher is almost as big a need as OT imho)

Honestly, I do not think that an edge rusher is as big a need as OT. Landry is sufficient, Jennings was a very good pass rusher at Bama (his responsibilities changed when he got here and he became an edge setter 1st), and Chaisson is going to prove to be a huge asset, imo. He is very quick of the snap and has pass rush moves and counters that he can win with.

 

[patfanken]

Honestly, I do not think that an edge rusher is as big a need as OT. Landry is sufficient, Jennings was a very good pass rusher at Bama (his responsibilities changed when he got here and he became an edge setter 1st), and Chaisson is going to prove to be a huge asset, imo. He is very quick of the snap and has pass rush moves and counters that he can win with.

I respectfully disagree with your take on the edge rush situation. Jennings has shown little explosiveness, speed, or power over what 3 or 4 years he's been here. Most of his hurries, QB hits and sacks come from good scheming and his good motor. He's a solid edge guy in the run game, and hard worker in the pass game, but he is NOT a threat that someone like Carter, Walker, or any of a half dozen guys coming out this year in a deep edge class.

If we go OT in the first as it seems likely, I'd want to see one of those edge guys in the second.

 

[dliverey44]

I respectfully disagree with your take on the edge rush situation. Jennings has shown little explosiveness, speed, or power over what 3 or 4 years he's been here. Most of his hurries, QB hits and sacks come from good scheming and his good motor. He's a solid edge guy in the run game, and hard worker in the pass game, but he is NOT a threat that someone like Carter, Walker, or any of a half dozen guys coming out this year in a deep edge class.

If we go OT in the first as it seems likely, I'd want to see one of those edge guys in the second.

I agree completely about Jennings not being as big a threat as Carter or Walker, but I don't view them as more than situational for a couple of years at the beginning of their careers and I do not think the 4th pick should be spent on a situational guy. I agree that it is a need just not as big a need as LT

 

[40yrpatsfan]

I agree completely about Jennings not being as big a threat as Carter or Walker, but I don't view them as more than situational for a couple of years at the beginning of their careers and I do not think the 4th pick should be spent on a situational guy. I agree that it is a need just not as big a need as LT

The D as a whole could go to battle with what we already have, which is better than last year's unit by a mile. The offense otoh has miles to go, and LT is a white-hot priority. If we solve that with our first pick, then I'm good with going BPA after that as there's a lot of talent at many positions on both sides of the ball that we could stand to upgrade.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

Our edge rushers suck. Jennings should be like 4th or 5th on the depth chart, only used against run heavy teams mostly. Landry has good sack numbers, but pretty much every analyst says he's washed in winning one on one matchups and can only generated schemed pressures. Chaisson is a one year wonder situational pass rusher that wasn't even that wondrous in the one year. White can't keep a mobile QB in the pocket to save his life so any pass rush wins he has he gives back and then some in that area.

You gotta ask yourself what you want to see them build towards...

Option 1) Decent enough across the board that with good coaching and discipline they can beat bad teams and hover around .500 each year to compete for the playoffs

Option 2) Team with actual division winner and deep playoff run aspirations.

In the context of option 1, then yeah LT is a bigger need than EDGE. The talent level there is weaker so to get decent across the board there's more room to go. But in the context of option 2, EDGE is as much of a need as LT because we won't ever be good enough without a positional overhaul.

 

[mgteich]

If we go OT in the first as it seems likely, I'd want to see one of those edge guys in the second.

I'm fine with this.

However, this doesn't mean that the need at EDGE is almost as serious as the need at LT.

Lowe and no one at LT makes that position by far the most serious need.

 

[Huckleberry1]

So, after 10 pages of discussion, can we agree on the following.

a. Teams below us have little incentive to trade up to #4 a pay a premium.

b. Carter and Hunter are VERY likely to be gone before we pick.

c. Those teams who MIGHT be looking to trade up, can get what they want by trading up with teams picking behind us like the Jags.

d. So, in the end, we are VERY likely to have to make a pick at #4 and get a "red chip" athlete. A guy who will likely be a solid starter and improve our team, but not someone with a superstar ceiling. This isn't anyone's fault. It's just the reality of the draft and it's vagaries

e. Our 3 best options at #4 are: Campbell, Membou, Walker and Graham. (edit: I added Walker as a distinct possibility since an Edge rusher is almost as big a need as OT imho)

At 6’2 245 Walker will never hold up as an Edge, and Campbell is a better off the ball linebacker,

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

At 6’2 245 Walker will never hold up as an Edge, and Campbell is a better off the ball linebacker,

i think he is talking about campbell the OT

 

[patfanken]

The D as a whole could go to battle with what we already have, which is better than last year's unit by a mile. The offense otoh has miles to go, and LT is a white-hot priority. If we solve that with our first pick, then I'm good with going BPA after that as there's a lot of talent at many positions on both sides of the ball that we could stand to upgrade.

I don't think you'd find ANY rational pats fan who would not agree to the maxim that LT is the #1 need. The problem is that, even at #4 there is not the sure fire "franchise' prospect that you'd expect to find at that position. Every ONE of them have flaws or issues that you'd normally not find when you are drafting that high.

Going back, there were issues about Seymour when we drafted him at #6 and he turned into a HOFer. Mayo turned out to be a great pick at #10. Solder a little less so at #17, but he was a solid starting LT while he was here.

But that's the thing. I don't doubt that Membou and Campbell, etc will end up being good NFL offensive linemen, but just not what you expect to be there at #4.

Now I know that great HOFer's come from all over the draft including #199, and world class busts and very average players have come from the top 5, but that NOT what you expect or hope for. THAT is what the draft season is all about. Expectations. And the sad fact is that we Pats fans will not come out of this draft with the excitement of having a blue chip talent on the roster.

Will we come out of the draft with chance to be a much improved football team and win more than 4 games? Yeah, we really should and that is ALL that should matter. But the draft is a silly season and the ONLY reward of a painfully bad season is that come April, your team becomes one of the top stories, when you were the afterthought all last season.

Well, through no fault of our own, the main story about the Pats over the next two weeks is that, "it's tough luck that the there are only 2 true "blue chip" prospects in this year's draft, and they won't get either. And they will have to pick from the next tier of players who are VERY good, but have flaws or questions. Not what you'd expect picking 4th.

Personally, I see our 2 biggest needs as Edge and LT, and if we end up picking one of each with our first 2 picks, I will be very happy. I have no preference in which order

 

[patfanken]

At 6’2 245 Walker will never hold up as an Edge, and Campbell is a better off the ball linebacker,

Actually I was kind of hoping for Jack Sawyer in the 2nd

 

[SlowGettingUp]

No real surprises here.

 

[Brotherblues]

Agreed. $66 million guaranteed and Carroll went out of his way to get him. We can’t count on the Raiders operating the way the Falcons did last year (i.e. throwing a bunch of guaranteed money at a veteran QB only to draft his replacement in the first round anyway). The Raiders are more likely to take a Day 3 flier on a developmental QB instead and then revisit the position down the line.

As far as trading up for Sanders, I think the only two teams with a remote interest in doing so might be the Saints (who last took a QB in the first round 54 years ago) or the Steelers (who might not feel compelled to pay the steep price it would take to move up 17 spots). I think if any team trades up with the Pats, it’ll be for a non-QB that that team covets the most.

Do we fully dismiss the Colts here? They ain't exactly thrilled with Richardson. Their other QB is Daniel Jones on a backup deal.

 

[Huckleberry1]

i think he is talking about campbell the OT

I know, I was just comparing Walker to Jihad Campbell, and as much as I would love a linebacker named Jihad I think they shouldn’t use the 4 on either of them.