Draft worst case has emerged for Pats at 4

[goheels22002]

That’s exactly the calculation. Campbell and Membou could possibly be gone by 10, but the rest should be there.

Not sure where, but I saw Banks going 10th to the Bears. That's interesting. If the Patriots are sitting at 4th and Travis Hunter is available, that might be a good spot to get their OL and maybe the Bears' 2026 #1.

I'm an Occam's Razor guy - I'd just pick the guy Doug Marrone (a lifer OL coach with HC experience) wants at #4 to protect Drake Maye and open holes for Rhamondre.

The coaching staff upgrades and free agent signings make this draft about building high quality depth capable of starting at some point in the season. Clearly the OL is still the biggest position group question mark followed by WR. The defense looks solid to me at every level with the potential to be a top ten defense under Vrabel, Terrell Williams and Ben McAdoo. There's so much coaching talent there, I expect this defense to be consistently sound.

Josh McDaniels needs a number of players on offense to excel this year to be truly competitive. The TEs are competent, the RB room looks good, and Diggs is a good step in the right direction. It would be nice to see Javon Parker or Ja'Lynn Polk take a big step in 2025. Both of those guys have skills.

Going by size of appendages, the WR from Mississippi - Tre Harris - should be available in the 3rd round. He has huge hands at 9-5/8".

 

[goheels22002]

Yeah but if the trade down is from 4 to say 10 or 12, that's still a higher pick than any we've had in recent memory except Maye last year. Gonzalez was 17th I believe, and Barmore was around 38.

The decision revolves around how much better the Pats see Campbell (or Membou if they prefer) than say Banks or Simmons who are projected to last until mid-1st round and would be there for us if we trade down. If we can pick up an extra second, is that pick worth more than the delta between Campbell and Banks/Simmons? A 2nd round pick gives us either an additional good player, or the capital to pick again in the 15-20 range instead of 38.

Thanks. Wow. in my mind, I have Barmore as a 1st rounder, but he was in the Mack Jones draft with Rhamondre Stevenson. Barmore is a 1st round talent - I hope his health issues get resolved.

 

[Triumph]

I totally agree that this is foundational draft opportunity near the top of each round. I have been writing about drafting OL for months - particularly if there is a Tackle who can be a building block for the next several years. There are three or four top-flight OTs in this draft who will be drafted before the Patriots get to draft in Round 2. Frankly, any of them is a solid pick.

Were on the same page, verse and chapter.

OL is not a glorious or exciting choice. But you sure are thankful when you field a team that is more physical than the opponent.

All this talk of trading down with the #4 overall pick seems foolish to me given the fact that the Patriots have landed foundational players with Drake Maye, Christian Barmore, and Christian Gonzalez with first round selections - key positions of need at the time of their selections. All three guys are 24-years-old or younger. An offensive tackle who can contribute immediately with tutoring from Morgan Moses is the best move.

After trading down last draft I do not trust Wolfe and Groh. They really need to redeem themselves this draft or get down the road.

If they want to wheel and deal a bit at the top of the 2nd round or 3rd round, they should go for it to add some future picks and a couple of players they really want including veterans. Remember, they got Randy Moss for a 4th round pick from Oakland. Some of these higher priced guys on other teams will be available for a 3rd or 4th round selection. I'd love to see them get one veteran receiver in that WR with Pop Douglas, Kayshon Boutte and Javon Parker.

I totally agree that this is foundational draft opportunity near the top of each round. I have been writing about drafting OL for months - particularly if there is a Tackle who can be a building block for the next several years. There are three or four top-flight OTs in this draft who will be drafted before the Patriots get to draft in Round 2. Frankly, any of them is a solid pick.

All this talk of trading down with the #4 overall pick seems foolish to me given the fact that the Patriots have landed foundational players with Drake Maye, Christian Barmore, and Christian Gonzalez with first round selections - key positions of need at the time of their selections. All three guys are 24-years-old or younger. An offensive tackle who can contribute immediately with tutoring from Morgan Moses is the best move.

If they want to wheel and deal a bit at the top of the 2nd round or 3rd round, they should go for it to add some future picks and a couple of players they really want including veterans. Remember, they got Randy Moss for a 4th round pick from Oakland. Some of these higher priced guys on other teams will be available for a 3rd or 4th round selection. I'd love to see them get one veteran receiver in that WR with Pop Douglas, Kayshon Boutte and Javon Parker.

I don't trust Mac and Meyer trading up or down after last years disaster.

3 starters at least. Other teams find stud players in all rounds and at every position.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Not sure where, but I saw Banks going 10th to the Bears. That's interesting. If the Patriots are sitting at 4th and Travis Hunter is available, that might be a good spot to get their OL and maybe the Bears' 2026 #1.

I'm an Occam's Razor guy - I'd just pick the guy Doug Marrone (a lifer OL coach with HC experience) wants at #4 to protect Drake Maye and open holes for Rhamondre.

The coaching staff upgrades and free agent signings make this draft about building high quality depth capable of starting at some point in the season. Clearly the OL is still the biggest position group question mark followed by WR. The defense looks solid to me at every level with the potential to be a top ten defense under Vrabel, Terrell Williams and Ben McAdoo. There's so much coaching talent there, I expect this defense to be consistently sound.

Josh McDaniels needs a number of players on offense to excel this year to be truly competitive. The TEs are competent, the RB room looks good, and Diggs is a good step in the right direction. It would be nice to see Javon Parker or Ja'Lynn Polk take a big step in 2025. Both of those guys have skills.

Going by size of appendages, the WR from Mississippi - Tre Harris - should be available in the 3rd round. He has huge hands at 9-5/8".

If the Bears were coming up for Carter or Hunter I would jack the price up to a 26’ 1st as well. Then, to show everyone they mean business take the player ( Hunter/Carter) if the Bears won’t pay up.

 

[KCSVEN]

Snippet from Yates on Campbell

Yates: The number of evaluators who are unbothered by Will Campbell's arm length really stands out to me. I was hard pressed to find an exec or coach who doesn't view LSU's Campbell as the best tackle of this class, and those same people told me his length wasn't a concern on tape. I'm not ignoring his 32 5/8 inch arm length from the combine, but most people I talked to are bullish on Campbell becoming a really good left tackle. He has excellent footwork, balance and body control to hold up as a pass protector.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

Not sure where, but I saw Banks going 10th to the Bears. That's interesting. If the Patriots are sitting at 4th and Travis Hunter is available, that might be a good spot to get their OL and maybe the Bears' 2026 #1.

I'm an Occam's Razor guy - I'd just pick the guy Doug Marrone (a lifer OL coach with HC experience) wants at #4 to protect Drake Maye and open holes for Rhamondre.

The coaching staff upgrades and free agent signings make this draft about building high quality depth capable of starting at some point in the season. Clearly the OL is still the biggest position group question mark followed by WR. The defense looks solid to me at every level with the potential to be a top ten defense under Vrabel, Terrell Williams and Ben McAdoo. There's so much coaching talent there, I expect this defense to be consistently sound.

Josh McDaniels needs a number of players on offense to excel this year to be truly competitive. The TEs are competent, the RB room looks good, and Diggs is a good step in the right direction. It would be nice to see Javon Parker or Ja'Lynn Polk take a big step in 2025. Both of those guys have skills.

Going by size of appendages, the WR from Mississippi - Tre Harris - should be available in the 3rd round. He has huge hands at 9-5/8".

I’d like to think we could trade down to the Bears at 10 and get their extra 2nd rounder (they have two). That would be perfect.

 

[patfanken]

Stop it. Stop it ! STOP IT. If by some miracle either Carter or Hunter is there at #4 (and they won't be), we take them. They are transcendent talents and probably the only 2 in this draft. You DO not pass that up for a guy who might be a "good LT" or better LG. THAT would be a firing offense.

BTW, Carter is the guy who might POSSIBLY be there at #4 and he plays a position of great need as well. The only chance we have to trade down is someone who wants to trade up for a QB to get ahead of the Raiders and why would they trade up to us, when they can trade up to the Jags for less for the same result.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

Snippet from Yates on Campbell

Yates: The number of evaluators who are unbothered by Will Campbell's arm length really stands out to me. I was hard pressed to find an exec or coach who doesn't view LSU's Campbell as the best tackle of this class, and those same people told me his length wasn't a concern on tape. I'm not ignoring his 32 5/8 inch arm length from the combine, but most people I talked to are bullish on Campbell becoming a really good left tackle. He has excellent footwork, balance and body control to hold up as a pass protector.

The bolded text here is key. You have to see him being really good at LT vs. just passable and you need to be bullish on that projection. Many here say to take him and defend that take by saying "well he'll probably never be great but we have a big need there and he could always shift to LG anyway where I think he could be great" - that's a terrible reason to take a player. but if you're BULLISH on him being a REALLY GOOD LT, then we should sprint in with the draft card picking him.

 

[mgteich]

. They ar transcendent talents and probably the oenly 2 in this draft. Y.

yup, "generational" talents shouldn't be skipped merely to get similar value in other players.

These are two excellent players. transcendent? generational? nah

 

[Boston Boxer]

Browns AND Giants not taking qb
Picking 4th in draft with 3 blue chppers
No team has to trade up to 4 to get Sanders
Top LTs all with major downsides
Trade demand for 4th pick likely to be low

They are locked in to having to draft a short armed LT with a 4th overall pick

Not ideal

Pick 38 will be critical
Can not have another draft like last year in roubds 2-7

nobody else in football is worried about his arm length, but we seem to be crossing him off the board because of it. I dont get it. He is the best LT with proven tape.

 

[silentone]

LT is the Pats greatest need.

Not WR.

There is such a shortage of solid LTs throughout the NFL. It just cost KC a Super Bowl AGAIN. With the current NFL trend of pass rushers coming out of the woodwork, drafting a WR will have poor return if there is no time to throw. Some teams will likely try to emulate the Eagles front 4. Example - If the Browns draft Carter and he is as good as advertised.

I don't expect the Pats to be drafting top 5 again 2026 draft. At least 3 of these 2025 picks have to count and produce starters.

I think that's right. LT is an important need and hopefully resolved early in the draft. WR is a luxury. 2025 WR class is considered weaker, especially at the top. 2026 WR class is considered stronger. Not likely winning super bowl this year. Build a great sustainable roster over next few years. 2025 class is strong at DT, Edge Rusher, & RB. Take advantage of those strengths.

 

[silentone]

I’d like to think we could trade down to the Bears at 10 and get their extra 2nd rounder (they have two). That would be perfect.

I think getting the Bears pick number 39 would be particularly useful which is right after the Pats pick number 38 and would give the Pats a little more control at that point in the draft.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Were on the same page, verse and chapter.

OL is not a glorious or exciting choice. But you sure are thankful when you field a team that is more physical than the opponent.

After trading down last draft I do not trust Wolfe and Groh. They really need to redeem themselves this draft or get down the road.



I don't trust Mac and Meyer trading up or down after last years disaster.

3 starters at least. Other teams find stud players in all rounds and at every position.

Yup, Wolf and Groh suck. Groh has been doing a lot of contract stuff (less draft stuff) with "her name is forgotten" having left. Groh is a lawyer and sucks at the draft. Wolf sucks too. I am hoping they are both gone the week after the draft. BB lost it by hiring those two.

 

[patrickscribe]

Another voice...

HOF LT Joe Thomas was on Cleveland radio this morning and was asked about the Will Cambell arm measurement. He scoffed at it and said arm measurement is something to bring up whe you don't have other bad things to say. He said Combine arm measurements are weird and that long or short fingers can make a difference in the measurement, but not in punching ability. A big length difference might help "if it's 10 inches or something" (if I remember right) but other things matter much more.

I will post a link if I can find one of that segment.

Will add this in a couple threads since it is a pretty expert view from a thoughtful ex-player. I don't think he said anything about tackle vs guard or where Campbell ranks or should be drafted.

 

[Triumph]

Yup, Wolf and Groh suck. Groh has been doing a lot of contract stuff (less draft stuff) with "her name is forgotten" having left. Groh is a lawyer and sucks at the draft. Wolf sucks too. I am hoping they are both gone the week after the draft. BB lost it by hiring those two.

Kraft brought them in because he wanted changes in the draft room.

Kraft complained in public how the Pats drafts were not up to standards (and they weren't) and then took some draft power from BB.

 

[Triumph]

I think that's right. LT is an important need and hopefully resolved early in the draft. WR is a luxury. 2025 WR class is considered weaker, especially at the top. 2026 WR class is considered stronger. Not likely winning super bowl this year. Build a great sustainable roster over next few years. 2025 class is strong at DT, Edge Rusher, & RB. Take advantage of those strengths.

I wonder what these NE trade rumors are about?

If the Pats traded for a LT now and still kept # 4. Then taking Hunter would not be so crazy with LT resolved.

 

[mgteich]

The BOTTOM LINE is that Campbell or Membou can contribute more than others over 4 years than any of the other players who will be drafted.

If Hunter and Carter are gone, how is getting the top player (or close) on our board in any way a disaster?

If we believe that no one is worth trading up for and 4-10 are about the same, then there is no disaster in picking on of the top 2 or 3 on our board (one of Campbell or Membou).

If Vrabel truly likes them equally, then trading down a couple of spots shouldn't lose them both. Say that we are offered a 4th. Should we not accept because the trade isn't worth it and draft Campbell or Membou? Or should we take the 4th and then take Campbell or Membou?

Obviously, if we have others higher on our board with Campbell and Membou much lower, the situation is very different.

My very strong decision is that Vrabel will listen to offers and then draft Campbell as folks have been saying for weeks. And, just BTW, Campbell and Membou both seem to be in the 4-10 grouping of red chip players.

 

[Lansdowne]

The BOTTOM LINE is that Campbell or Membou can contribute more than others over 4 years than any of the other players who will be drafted.

If Hunter and Carter are gone, how is getting the top player (or close) on our board in any way a disaster?

If we believe that no one is worth trading up for and 4-10 are about the same, then there is no disaster in picking on of the top 2 or 3 on our board (one of Campbell or Membou).

If Vrabel truly likes them equally, then trading down a couple of spots shouldn't lose them both. Say that we are offered a 4th. Should we not accept because the trade isn't worth it and draft Campbell or Membou? Or should we take the 4th and then take Campbell or Membou?

Obviously, if we have others higher on our board with Campbell and Membou much lower, the situation is very different.

My very strong decision is that Vrabel will listen to offers and then draft Campbell as folks have been saying for weeks. And, just BTW, Campbell and Membou both seem to be in the 4-10 grouping of red chip players.

I don’t think they’d accept a 4th round pick as compensation for moving down in the 1st round, even if it was moving down one spot with the Jags. Doesn’t move the needle enough. Odds are Vrabel has a preference for who he wants most out of the available guys in that red chip range. And in order to miss out on that top preference I imagine he’ll need to be compelled with a 2nd round pick at minimum to move down, and that’s only if he’s not really locked in on someone. My hunch is that Campbell is the pick after Ward, Hunter, and Carter are taken (likely in that order). Everything about Campbell’s profile sounds like a fit in what Vrabel is looking for in a player.

 

[Mack Herron]

 

[imahobgoblin]

Stop it. Stop it ! STOP IT. If by some miracle either Carter or Hunter is there at #4 (and they won't be), we take them. They are transcendent talents and probably the only 2 in this draft. You DO not pass that up for a guy who might be a "good LT" or better LG. THAT would be a firing offense.

BTW, Carter is the guy who might POSSIBLY be there at #4 and he plays a position of great need as well. The only chance we have to trade down is someone who wants to trade up for a QB to get ahead of the Raiders and why would they trade up to us, when they can trade up to the Jags for less for the same result.

Its a pipe dream to think the Raiders are moving up for a QB this year. Geno just signed andextension and Pete adores him. They are not in a transition mode of a bridge QB with Geno's salary. They will build the team over the next 2 years and then address QB.