The thought process of a slow moving market

[JayNM]

Hello everyone,

I wanted to to put this thread out there because I didn't want to get lost in FA thread. I don't think we can have an more open conversation, and Ian likes new threads.

Can we all agree that this has been one of the slowest FA periods recently? After the first wave monday, most positions have become very still, with one or other top guy getting a contract, and some QBs moving around

So, what this exercise about? Yall know what a prisoner's dilemma is? So is the same thing but on the Free Agency market (Let's call a nash rationalization for economists out there)

Principles
1 - High expectation players ( available player list) - Looking at the expected AVY of the top list, it's very clear to me at least that these numbers are overpriced. Rodgers does not deserver 37.5M, neither Cupp 26M (and I want him and, in "fair market" we should do it. Not the point), etc etc. This goes waay down the list too.. So my conclusion, is that finally the top end market players's salary have adjusted the expectation of the mid tier veterans. They think they deserve more, bc they produce close to the top tier signed player

2 - Conservative teams - Excluding Monday, and perhaps one or two teams, there is a clear focus on retaining players and solidifying foundations. Even the top tier player are renovating their rosters, but not necesseraly improving them, with a "surprise" player improving in a new team, or young guys doing jumps. While there has been some cap clean up, the best available free agents, consensually, are yet on the market. My conclusion: They are prone to not pay premium for player with red, or even orange-ish flags

3 - (Sorry) The Macroeconomics of it all - It is impossible to preview the US economy right. I don't want to be known as a political baiter (yet), so I hope everyone, in all spectrum, can agree on this, because it is a fact. Also a fact, difficult to know the timeframe for said uncertainty. It is impossible, for me at least, to not think this affects the NFL. I think owner are extra cautious of dealing long term contracts for players, especially those without incredible revenue stream (Patrimony =/= Revenue).


So where am i getting at? This is a unique free agency, more so than ever. Not only it very clearly broke a pretty long trend already (i did not double check this, and this whole thread lose a bit of water if im wrong here, i'll admit it here first), but it also situated in unique moment in history.

So, before I say what I think, what do you guys think? Am I overthinking this a bit too much? Am I wrong and do you think this "lagging" is natural?

 

[mgteich]

I think that you are overthinking.

It is often the case that there is a big rush as the top players get paid, players are re-signed or extended and a few other transactions are made.

After the initial rush, I don't think that it unusual for players and teams to slow down a bit.
================================
We are spending more than anyone and guaranteeing more than anyone (signing 8 new players)

We have made decisions letting go some of our vets: Godchaux, Jones, Andrews and Wise.

We have re-signed others (mostly for very little): Hooper, Hawkins, Austin, Brown, Jacobs and Jackson.
======
We have done far more than anyone in this initial rush.

The good news is that there lots of good players (top 100) left, including many on the OL.

 

[BUSTAMOVE]

Because of the Bird Flu

 

[TheRainMaker]

1st day went as expected. But since the cap keeps going up, it's easier for teams to look up the top players.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Hello everyone,

I wanted to to put this thread out there because I didn't want to get lost in FA thread. I don't think we can have an more open conversation, and Ian likes new threads.

Can we all agree that this has been one of the slowest FA periods recently? After the first wave monday, most positions have become very still, with one or other top guy getting a contract, and some QBs moving around

So, what this exercise about? Yall know what a prisoner's dilemma is? So is the same thing but on the Free Agency market (Let's call a nash rationalization for economists out there)

Principles
1 - High expectation players ( available player list) - Looking at the expected AVY of the top list, it's very clear to me at least that these numbers are overpriced. Rodgers does not deserver 37.5M, neither Cupp 26M (and I want him and, in "fair market" we should do it. Not the point), etc etc. This goes waay down the list too.. So my conclusion, is that finally the top end market players's salary have adjusted the expectation of the mid tier veterans. They think they deserve more, bc they produce close to the top tier signed player

2 - Conservative teams - Excluding Monday, and perhaps one or two teams, there is a clear focus on retaining players and solidifying foundations. Even the top tier player are renovating their rosters, but not necesseraly improving them, with a "surprise" player improving in a new team, or young guys doing jumps. While there has been some cap clean up, the best available free agents, consensually, are yet on the market. My conclusion: They are prone to not pay premium for player with red, or even orange-ish flags

3 - (Sorry) The Macroeconomics of it all - It is impossible to preview the US economy right. I don't want to be known as a political baiter (yet), so I hope everyone, in all spectrum, can agree on this, because it is a fact. Also a fact, difficult to know the timeframe for said uncertainty. It is impossible, for me at least, to not think this affects the NFL. I think owner are extra cautious of dealing long term contracts for players, especially those without incredible revenue stream (Patrimony =/= Revenue).


So where am i getting at? This is a unique free agency, more so than ever. Not only it very clearly broke a pretty long trend already (i did not double check this, and this whole thread lose a bit of water if im wrong here, i'll admit it here first), but it also situated in unique moment in history.

So, before I say what I think, what do you guys think? Am I overthinking this a bit too much? Am I wrong and do you think this "lagging" is natural?

The 30/31/32 year old receivers need to understand they have already lost a step or two, and if they aren't on the steep downslope already they will surely be over the next few years. Will take some time for the realization to sink in, but the market will eventually speak. BTW, the Spotrac value for Kupp is $11m per year.

 

[Toofy]

I think this should be a season to allow more reps for younger players under a proper Oac to evaluate. From that perspective , I would like us to not sign Kupp as logically it takes away reps from Pop.

I would want us to have cap to sign Higgins should he become available mod-season. I feel Bengals are probably gonna tank on defense this year and start even worse than last year and they will be forced to trade Higgina mid season.

Probably on draft Day Higgins is available for a mid 2nd rounder . So maybe we trade down with raiders from 4 to 6 and exchange raiders 2nd rounder with our Atlanta 3rd rounder. And trade down further to mid 50s and use that on Higgins.

 

[WinstonSmith]

This is similar to a drunken group of sailors descending upon a Vegas strip club on a weekend furlough.

The first night money flowed freely and all had a great time with extravagant high-end strippers.

After waking up sober and realizing that they spent like drunken sailors the night before they realized that they needed to act less like marks paying for the highest caliber strippers and more like sober sailors.

So they watched baseball at the bar while drinking water, until the regular non highend strippers stopped holding out for high-end money.

 

[Huckleberry1]

A bunch of the remaining free agents are used to getting bigger paydays than what they are being offered right now, and they don’t want to sign for those lower numbers. So teams will either cave and give them closer to what they want, or they will wait until this players realize they won’t be getting the big money anymore, so they need to take their best offers.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

 

[SlowGettingUp]

regular non highend strippers

Can they still get open and catch balls?

 

[WinstonSmith]

Can they still get open and catch balls?

Yes, but for the love of god please make sure to keep the lights dimmed

 

[Water Boy]

Lazar is of the opinion that the fact that the Rams are letting him go is a good indicator that he's washed as far as YAC and burst is concerned. He's a complimentary receiver at this point.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Lazar is of the opinion that the fact that the Rams are letting him go is a good indicator that he's washed as far as YAC and burst is concerned. He's a complimentary receiver at this point.

Kupp is washed, Cooper is washed, Diggs is washed, all of the 31 to 32 year old WRs are on the way down. We blew it with Polk and Baker. Not any good FA options at WR or LT. We have to hope the 2025 and 2026 drafts are good to fill out WR and LT.

 

[Patsfan1645]

This is similar to a drunken group of sailors descending upon a Vegas strip club on a weekend furlough.

The first night money flowed freely and all had a great time with extravagant high-end strippers.

After waking up sober and realizing that they spent like drunken sailors the night before they realized that they needed to act less like marks paying for the highest caliber strippers and more like sober sailors.

So they watched baseball at the bar while drinking water, until the regular non highend strippers stopped holding out for high-end money.

I assume you speak from a position of personal knowledge, far too many details not to be.

 

[Patsfan1645]

Can they still get open and catch balls?

I am sure they can.....get open.....and catch balls, its what they do.