The things that kinda gives Mahomes a chance
1. Brady had that 10 year gap between wins which gives Mahomes some wiggle room, though less than people think because he won't have the same longevity.
2. Mahomes doesn't have a Peyton Manning to compete with for top seed in the conference.
Now that still means Mahomes is much less likely than not to reach Brady, but he still has a chance which is pretty incredible. Most guys fall WAY off pace to get close to Brady within like 5 years of their career. Having a fighting chance is still nuts.