Will we keep a 6-8 pick?

[carolinatony]

"This team needs some potential starters. They have to start

rebuilding their defense with younger players. An early pick would give

them a player who would be a Patriot for 6 years."


I agree with you on this and please let one be a LB!

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Re: They target established players and use picks as value

What alot of people dont realize is how much it hurt us to lose our first because we can tender restricted players (Barber is well worth a 1st and 3rd considering our position and his fit but now we cant).

No, Barber isn't worth a 1st and a 3rd to the Pats right now (don't forget, next year's 'current' starting lineup is slated to be Maroney-Morris-Faulk-Evans-Eckel, not Maroney-Evans-Eckel-?). At the moment, I'm not sure anyone's available on O that would be worth that much draft capital.

Also, keep in mind that the tender level depends on the salary proffered by the team. Welker should have been given a first-round tender, but wasn't.

 

[jeffbiologist]

I think it would always be smart to upgrade,especially for say the 32nd and 96th pick. Morris to Evans' slot, Barber catches well,great in short yardage,bad weather and goal line while splitting the load. I question Maroney's durability and a Minni teammate might make him more hungry. The rest of the the O is great, they are doing a great job on the line and even if they lose 2-3 recievers(I feel bad for Stallworth)they have the numbers. There hasnt been a all pro linebacker in the first round in many years. Its a great spot to use on D line again....despite need. Colvin's impact,injury and cap number arent good.It wouldnt surprise me to see them trading off picks again for established players --linebackers and DB's that want to take a pay cut to win a championship...

 

[dryheat44]

Well see what Dallas does. Julius is good as gone. If Jones is in love with McFadden as most think, the smart thing (if there's cap room) would be to put the highest tender on Barber and draft McFadden. So either you're getting a first and third for Barber, or the worst case is you have two expensive running backs for one year while McFadden learns the Pro game.

 

[Dagg]

Because if you look around the league you dont need a 1st round RB to win. Norwood is good enough and another free agent addition of mid tier runner will be fine.

See Sammy Morris, Ryan Grant, Earnest graham, Fargas, Kolby Smith, I could go on.

Its a waste of a pick. They need a QB but I think Dline and Oline as well.

 

[dryheat44]

Because if you look around the league you dont need a 1st round RB to win. Norwood is good enough and another free agent addition of mid tier runner will be fine.

See Sammy Morris, Ryan Grant, Earnest graham, Fargas, Kolby Smith, I could go on.

Its a waste of a pick. They need a QB but I think Dline and Oline as well.

It's a shame the Chargers wasted such a prime pick on LaDainian Tomlinson, and the Vikings on Adrian Peterson. With better drafting, they'd probably be playoff teams.

You don't need a first-round anything to win. The Falcons do need to improve everywhere, but they also need something to get excited about after the Vick/Petrino/3-13 season disasters.

 

[Dagg]

You have named 2 examples out of 32 teams. There is definately more evidence to support they dont need a top tier RB, heck Chester Taylor and likely a few SD backups will be availbale next year via FA.

That and if you have seen any Arthur Blank interviews lately he is pretty much conceding they need an impact QB.

Its easy to get a FA running back to plug a hole not easy to get a FA QB.

In addition nearly evey mock draft has Ryan and Brohm in the top 10, and all sites have a QB picked for them either Brohm or Ryan.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=mock+2008+NFL+draft&btnG=Search

 

[cstjohn17]

It's a shame the Chargers wasted such a prime pick on LaDainian Tomlinson, and the Vikings on Adrian Peterson. With better drafting, they'd probably be playoff teams.

You don't need a first-round anything to win. The Falcons do need to improve everywhere, but they also need something to get excited about after the Vick/Petrino/3-13 season disasters.

Hypothetical question, if LT was available for the Patriots at pick 6 in 2001 would they take him or Seymour?
http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?season=2001

Knowing what we know now, it is a tough call. LT has been the most dominant RB and averages over 2000 combined yards and 14-18 TDs per season.

Seymour has been an anchor on 3 championship teams.

Tough call..

 

[dryheat44]

Hypothetical question, if LT was available for the Patriots at pick 6 in 2001 would they take him or Seymour?
http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?season=2001

Knowing what we know now, it is a tough call. LT has been the most dominant RB and averages over 2000 combined yards and 14-18 TDs per season.

Seymour has been an anchor on 3 championship teams.

Tough call..

Given what we know now? I think we take LT and rely on Jarvis Green as a starter.

That being said, we won 3 Super Bowls with Seymour and Antowain Smith/Corey Dillon. How many more were we going to win with Tomlinson/not Seymour? Probably none, although "more" is more likely than "fewer".

Hey, I'm a big believer in the theory that 90% of Running Backs are interchangeable behind a quality offensive line. Going back to Dagg, I generally think that usually there is a better use of a pick that chasing an RB in the first round. For example, the Falcons on-field product would probably be best served by trading down. (Then again, I believe you could say that about every single team in the league). However, if we're starting with the position that they're going to pick in the first few picks, and McFadden is on the board, I would expect them to make that pick. If I were owner/GM, I'd make that pick. Partly because I don't think very highly of Brohm's or Ryan's or Woodson's future chances to be an upper echelon NFL quarterback, and partly because I'm thinking of a broader view than just on-field product. I want to get some excitement in my team, I'm trying to sell merchandise, I'm trying to sell seats in a stadium that generally doesn't sell out. You can sell McFadden much easier than any other player in this draft, and he's a serious roster upgrade for between-the-tackles runs than a 31-year-old Warrick Dunn.

Are there other RBs to be had? Of course. Michael Turner, Julius Jones and Lamont Jordan come immediately to mind as free agents next year. Shaun Alexander and Kevin Jones could be cut. Chester Taylor could be had in trade. Marion Barber's there, but he's going to cost you a bundle in picks and salary. Figure the Jets, Browns, Texans, Cowboys, Chargers, Cardinals, Bears, possibly Lions, possibly Saints, possibly Dolphins are going to be suitors for available targets...and the Falcons aren't exactly a preferred landing spot right now.

I think the smart play is to draft McFadden and sign or trade for a veteran free agent quarterback....not the other way around.

 

[cstjohn17]

Given what we know now? I think we take LT and rely on Jarvis Green as a starter.

That being said, we won 3 Super Bowls with Seymour and Antowain Smith/Corey Dillon. How many more were we going to win with Tomlinson/not Seymour? Probably none, although "more" is more likely than "fewer".

Hey, I'm a big believer in the theory that 90% of Running Backs are interchangeable behind a quality offensive line.

I agree with everything you said, LT is one of 10% that are special, and maybe McFadden is as well. One thing about a RB on a bad team, he will get a lot of touches and make an impact immediately.

If they have any patience they would build the lines and sign a FA RB, but patience doesn't sell tickets.

 

[b72s]

Trade down for Vet LB and picks

We need to trade down and get a vet lb if possible. This would address a big need or CB if we let asante walk.

Our window is with Brady so I tink getting younger at LB is best bet

 

[makewayhomer]

Hypothetical question, if LT was available for the Patriots at pick 6 in 2001 would they take him or Seymour?
http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?season=2001

Knowing what we know now, it is a tough call. LT has been the most dominant RB and averages over 2000 combined yards and 14-18 TDs per season.

Seymour has been an anchor on 3 championship teams.

Tough call..

it's not really close, the top DE's are worth much more than the top RB's. NFL GM's agree by paying them a lot more.

LT2 is great, but has been playing in a great offense. go look at Erik Turners #'s, they are awesome

 

[Real World]

We'll see how the draft breaks down. Right now Gholston and Malcolm Jenkins look like they'll be going around there. Of course, #6 could be a good trade down spot as the #1 QB, as of now, is looking to be in the latter part of the top ten and QB are often traded up for.

I'm with you BF. I think the Pats will draft at #6 if the person they want is there, and they don't think they can get him if they move. The Pats are all about value, and I think being where they are now is better for their line of operation. They'll have more flexibility with a #6 pick, as it should prove to be more attractive to teams in this draft.

 

[cstjohn17]

it's not really close, the top DE's are worth much more than the top RB's. NFL GM's agree by paying them a lot more.

LT2 is great, but has been playing in a great offense. go look at Erik Turners #'s, they are awesome

I see your point about DEs, but it is not really a general discussion. It is a very specific question about two especially talented players, LT versus Seymour.

I would have to disagree about LT playing on a good offense, I would say he is their offense. Even now can you imagine them winning a playoff game without LT? AFter looking at the numbers it is not even close, LT is one of the most productive players in NFL history.

In 2000, the year before he was drafted, SD averaged 16.8 PPG
2001 - 20.8
2002 - 20.8
2003 - 27.6
2004 - 27.9
2005 - 26.1
2006 - 30.8
2007 - 25.6


Career stats - http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TomlLa00.htm
- averages since 2001 (including an incomplete 2007 season)
- 16.3 rushing TDs per year
- 1.9 receiving TDs
- 1 passing TD per year
- 19 total TDs or 114 points per year
- 332 rushes per year, 65 receptions
- he touches the ball 24 times per game
- averages 2000 yards (1500 rushing, 500 receiving) per year

Honestly I had no idea the guy was this good.

 

[mgteich]

I'm with rook, I think that we will expect to use the pick for a talented 6-year addition. That is what good team should want to do. We are not a rebuilding team that wants to add 10 draftees. Sure, depending on how the draft is going, we could trade down a couple of spots, but I don't see us falling out of the top 16. The extra contract year is important.

Our priorities should be easily seen by Draft Day. Just look at our roster players at LB and CB. Did we deal with these issues in free agency, through extensions, or not. And yes, we will always consider an OT, even though we have a pro-bowl LT and three solid backup OT's.

I dont think the Pats will be trading down if they find talent... and that includes if they pick at #2. I'm actually a little pissed that Cinci lost. wtf?

 

[shakadave]

Tell me if this rings true:

I agree with much stated above.

It's hard to see us paying a top-5 pick what top-5 picks get. 6-8 is a slightly better deal, and 10-12 has actual good value. The system is whacked --- how do we go about lobbying to fix it?

I still think RB is a need, but a Round 1 RB is not a need. Anyone else notice that RBs tend to be taken in the 1st or 4th round, but you don't see many 2nd rounders for some reason?

Tell me if this rings true: We never seem to draft a LB in Round 1, but we've never had the 5th pick before. Holding such a high pick, BB finds a LB that he KNOWS will be good in the pros, and for the first time, we draft LB.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Re: Tell me if this rings true:

Tell me if this rings true: We never seem to draft a LB in Round 1, but we've never had the 5th pick before. Holding such a high pick, BB finds a LB that he KNOWS will be good in the pros, and for the first time, we draft LB.

I wouldn't hold your breath on that linebacker. Seriously, don't get your hopes up. About the only 1st round pick that I wanted/thought would happen was Wilfork (NT), and it was a miracle that he slid all the way to 21. I knew the Pats could not pass up that kind of player, so perfect for their system at that draft slot.

 

[cstjohn17]

At least it gives us more to talk about, maybe 8-10 players are in the mix to be taken in the top 5. With pick #2 there really were 1 or 2 potential picks.

I still say trade back and it should be easier from #5 than #2.

Whoever said 6-8 was right on the money, props to 'carolinatony'. I think we are at 8 as of 12/23. From a cap perspective, according to last years salaries this is still a little high, Jamaal Anderson DE 5 year $31.00 for a $6.20 average. Lynch is signed for 6 years for only $3M.

I still vote 'trade back' but at least the cap hit is not totally dehibilitating at #8.

2007 draft contracts
8 Atlanta Jamaal Anderson DE 5 $31.00 $6.20
9 Miami Ted Ginn Jr. WR 5 Unknown Unknown $14M guarantees
10 Houston Amobi Okoye DT 6 $15.40 $2.57
11 San Francisco Patrick Willis ILB 5 $16.65 $3.33
12 Buffalo Marshawn Lynch RB 6 $18.90 $3.15

 

[Fencer]

Hmm.

On the one hand, I have trouble envisioning them paying $6 million/year to ANYBODY who's a rookie-level risk.

On the other hand -- how would that compare to the fraction of the salary cap they committed to Seymour, when he was drafted?

 

[VJCPatriot]

Whoever said 6-8 was right on the money, props to 'carolinatony'. I think we are at 8 as of 12/23. From a cap perspective, according to last years salaries this is still a little high, Jamaal Anderson DE 5 year $31.00 for a $6.20 average. Lynch is signed for 6 years for only $3M.

I still vote 'trade back' but at least the cap hit is not totally dehibilitating at #8.

2007 draft contracts
8 Atlanta Jamaal Anderson DE 5 $31.00 $6.20
9 Miami Ted Ginn Jr. WR 5 Unknown Unknown $14M guarantees
10 Houston Amobi Okoye DT 6 $15.40 $2.57
11 San Francisco Patrick Willis ILB 5 $16.65 $3.33
12 Buffalo Marshawn Lynch RB 6 $18.90 $3.15

The Doofins paid 14M in guaranteed money for a KICK RETURNER?? This epitomizes what is wrong with that organization. And their fans wondered why they couldn't even compete with the Pats... Gee I wonder.