I get what you are saying, and it’s a perfectly valid take, . And I agree that 3 is too high, but I still prioritize franchise caliber over decent starter. If I’m going to use that pick in a quarterback then they have to have the highest upside, and not the highest floor. Bo Nix and Penix could possibly end up being decent starting quarterbacks, but that only take a team so far, usually ending in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, at best. And McCarthy could end up being a total bust, like Zach Wilson is to this point in time. However McCarthy also has an upside that if coached properly, and he takes to that coaching, could be good enough to win Lombardi’s with. And this is the critical quality for me when it comes to taking the quarterback in the first round, can you win championships with them? If you just thing decent starter is their ceiling then wait until the second round to take them, otherwise you are wasting your first round pick, which imo should always be used for a prospect with ALL PRO upside, regardless of need, and not used just to fill a need. And that isn’t pro bowl upside, because literally anyone can make the pro bowl these days, as the real top players always pass on it, but ALL PRO, the best of the best.
So, while I agree that 3 is a big risk with McCarthy, I would still use it if I believed that he’s a potential top 4 QB in this league. But it’s always better to take the risk than it is to be happy with mediocre.