Should Belichick Retain Personnel Duties?

[lancerman]

I am quite capable of finding a rational take where I see this team contend for a playoff berth next year. Many people just don't want to hear it. The pitchforks are out and there is no stopping the angry mob that somehow believes that getting rid of BB will solve all the problems. There are other possibilities.
1) Get two competent Quarterbacks
2) Bring in more new coaches and consultants to replace the "brain drain"
3) Solidify the WR position and the OL
4) Keep the defense intact and add a bit more speed at LB

The NFL always has a team or two that nobody saw rebounding from the previous year. I think that BB is still good enough to do it.

Here's the problem

1. The hardest position to hit on and one that usually doesn't pan out in year one.
2. The problem is that Bill has shown zero willingness to go outside his comfort zone when it comes to hiring coaches.
3. He's had since 2019 to fix the WR position and has failed. The offensive line has been up and down mediocre and shallow for awhile as well. We need at least 2-3 guys that can be solid to go into that rotation.
4. The defense being good this year doesn't guarantee that it will be good next year. They've played well against mediocre Colts, Giants, and Chargers teams. The Cowboys, Saints and Dolphins dropped more than 30 on them. The Eagles, Raiders, and Commanders broke 20. Even if you take the 3 best defensive showings this year and turn them into wins, it isn't enough.

I don't see how we reasonably can expect to hit on a QB next year that makes an impact and have another one as a competent back up or enough to keep the ship steady until a rookie is ready. At least one quality #1 WR and probably another decent 2 option, at least 1 or 2 offensive lineman, and I guess a linebacker. You can also add a kicker to that as well.

We are talking 7-8 players and only linebacker has shown any level of us having a good track record of filling.

That's before you get into how the free agents this year are
-Hunter Henry (our best pass catcher)
-Bourne (one of our better pass catchers)
-Trent Brown (very inconsistent and lacks heart, but is still would be harder to replace an improve)
-Onwenu (another decent lineman)
-Ezekiel Elliot (is really our best RB, losing him actually does in fact matter with Stevenson having a down year and finishing it injured)
-Gesicki (having both our starting TE's on the free agency list is not good)
-Dugger/Flowers/Uche/Jennings on defense. (You know guys that good defense probably needs to retain if they want any hope of staying at that level)

We have 2 wins, it would be hard to be worse, but there's a lot of people we have to worry about retaining to stay the same before we talk about hitting on hard positions like QB and WR. We could draft a stud OL, but could lose Brown and Onwenu and undermine that unit far more. We have to decide if we want to pay the best RB on the team. Hunter Henry has zero incentive to give us any sort of friendly discount, so we could lose the best pass catcher on the team.

There's no way this team is a contender next year. We got lucky with the Bills having a down year and Rodgers being out on the Jets. Just for the division those teams have a far easier path to adding pieces and being ahead of us. We can get better, but so can every team that is currently closer than us.

 

[mgteich]

Apples and oranges. This year they will likely have a top 3 pick, instead of the #15. And while there are no guarantees with any pick the likelihood is greater the higher you pick. Allen, Mahomes, Tua, Burrows, Lawrence, and others demonstrate that you can get a franchise with a high pick if it’s used wisely. You can also get a Wilson or Manziel if you are careless with the pick, but my hope is that they won’t be.

Yiou really would want the #2 or #3 picks of the Jones draft?

 

[Calhoun44]

Here's the problem

1. The hardest position to hit on and one that usually doesn't pan out in year one.
2. The problem is that Bill has shown zero willingness to go outside his comfort zone when it comes to hiring coaches.
3. He's had since 2019 to fix the WR position and has failed. The offensive line has been up and down mediocre and shallow for awhile as well. We need at least 2-3 guys that can be solid to go into that rotation.
4. The defense being good this year doesn't guarantee that it will be good next year. They've played well against mediocre Colts, Giants, and Chargers teams. The Cowboys, Saints and Dolphins dropped more than 30 on them. The Eagles, Raiders, and Commanders broke 20. Even if you take the 3 best defensive showings this year and turn them into wins, it isn't enough.

I don't see how we reasonably can expect to hit on a QB next year that makes an impact and have another one as a competent back up or enough to keep the ship steady until a rookie is ready. At least one quality #1 WR and probably another decent 2 option, at least 1 or 2 offensive lineman, and I guess a linebacker. You can also add a kicker to that as well.

We are talking 7-8 players and only linebacker has shown any level of us having a good track record of filling.

That's before you get into how the free agents this year are
-Hunter Henry (our best pass catcher)
-Bourne (one of our better pass catchers)
-Trent Brown (very inconsistent and lacks heart, but is still would be harder to replace an improve)
-Onwenu (another decent lineman)
-Ezekiel Elliot (is really our best RB, losing him actually does in fact matter with Stevenson having a down year and finishing it injured)
-Gesicki (having both our starting TE's on the free agency list is not good)
-Dugger/Flowers/Uche/Jennings on defense. (You know guys that good defense probably needs to retain if they want any hope of staying at that level)

We have 2 wins, it would be hard to be worse, but there's a lot of people we have to worry about retaining to stay the same before we talk about hitting on hard positions like QB and WR. We could draft a stud OL, but could lose Brown and Onwenu and undermine that unit far more. We have to decide if we want to pay the best RB on the team. Hunter Henry has zero incentive to give us any sort of friendly discount, so we could lose the best pass catcher on the team.

There's no way this team is a contender next year. We got lucky with the Bills having a down year and Rodgers being out on the Jets. Just for the division those teams have a far easier path to adding pieces and being ahead of us. We can get better, but so can every team that is currently closer than us.

I guess you are a "glass is half empty" guy and I am a "glass is half full" kind of guy. Regardless of who is GM/Coach all those issues you see will still exist. My opinion is that I would prefer BB to have at least one more year to correct as many of my concerns as possible. If he drops the ball this off-season, then I would be willing to make the change.

Your criticism of the defense against some of those teams is really unfair considering how bad the Patriots offense is and how much time the defense is forced to play without a lead. Imagine this defense with Judon, Marcus Jones and Gonzales when the other team was having to play catch up. They would feast on QB's and wreak havoc all over the field.

 

[Calhoun44]

Yiou really would want the #2 or #3 picks of the Jones draft?

As long as they took Micah I'd be okay with it.

 

[lancerman]

I guess you are a "glass is half empty" guy and I am a "glass is half full" kind of guy. Regardless of who is GM/Coach all those issues you see will still exist. My opinion is that I would prefer BB to have at least one more year to correct as many of my concerns as possible. If he drops the ball this off-season, then I would be willing to make the change.

Your criticism of the defense against some of those teams is really unfair considering how bad the Patriots offense is and how much time the defense is forced to play without a lead. Imagine this defense with Judon, Marcus Jones and Gonzales when the other team was having to play catch up. They would feast on QB's and wreak havoc all over the field.

Guys like Gonzalez were playing when teams were having success against us early in the season

 

[mgteich]

Exactly. There's no rational take where you see this team going from where it is today to a playoff contender next year..

We have close or in the playoffs every year but this one. In 2023, it is clear that with a bit of health and a competent, not even average, QB, we would likely be competing for the playoffs now.
============
I disagree with your assessment. There are many roads to being a 2024 playoff contender. See below for one plan.
=================================
We have over $100M in free agent money.

Let's start by presuming the re-signing of all our free agents plus drafting a QB at the top of the first and drafting 2 OT's and a WR in the 2nd-4th rounds.

DEFENSE
We will have a top Defense with the return of Gonzo and Judon. I presumed free agent money to re-sign everyone. Obviously, replacements are also alternatives. In any case, we will re-sign or replace Mills, Jackson, Duggar and Jennings (and perhaps even Bryant).

SPECIAL TEAMS
These are good to go, with the possible addition of a kicker. Note that our top PR is coming back.

OFFENSE
I have presumed the re-signing or replacement of Bourne, Onwenu, Brown, Elliot, and the TE's.

ADDITIONALLY
Along with the above, a top free agent priority is a veteran QB to start until the rookie is ready, and then be the backup.
The second priority is WR.

 

[mgteich]

As long as they took Micah I'd be okay with that

No, no , no

Folks seem to think that we can draft a Qb in the top 3 picks and we are set at QB. That just isn't true.

Parsons is a great choice a couple of years later. How many top 15 players are team leaders and all-pro's?

 

[Toofy]

If we are 100% certain that Marvin Harrison can be a bona-fide wr1 then draft him over maye or caleb Williams.

I am not so sure if the top 2 qb picks will be great and if we whiff we are screwed . Much rather have a decent all pro than a potential franchise qb with poor offensive line and no wide receiver.

The cupboard is so barren.

 

[venecol]

I am quite capable of finding a rational take where I see this team contend for a playoff berth next year. Many people just don't want to hear it. The pitchforks are out and there is no stopping the angry mob that somehow believes that getting rid of BB will solve all the problems. There are other possibilities.
1) Get two competent Quarterbacks
2) Bring in more new coaches and consultants to replace the "brain drain"
3) Solidify the WR position and the OL
4) Keep the defense intact and add a bit more speed at LB

The NFL always has a team or two that nobody saw rebounding from the previous year. I think that BB is still good enough to do it.

Getting rid of Bill will not solve all the problems but it'll stop the bleeding. There's too much work to get done and no easy fixes. It'll take 2 to 3 years to get this team back to being competitive.

Except for item 1, that's exactly what Bill tried this season. We know the results. He'll be a year older with almost no draw for new players based on the team being ass, having no known QB, and Bill's reputation sinking. If you're Higgins or Evans, why in the world would you come here? They won't.

Sure, we'll win more games, mainly because we've got nowhere to go but up. It won't be enough. Another losing record, no playoffs, and one more lost season. More games filled with bone headed plays, penalties, **** STs, etc. Nothing will change. There's zero evidence for your wish to come true. Plenty of evidence for what I'm saying to happen.

 

[Calhoun44]

No, no , no

Folks seem to think that we can draft a Qb in the top 3 picks and we are set at QB. That just isn't true.

Parsons is a great choice a couple of years later. How many top 15 players are team leaders and all-pro's?

I thought we were talking about the 2021 draft.

 

[Calhoun44]

Getting rid of Bill will not solve all the problems but it'll stop the bleeding. There's too much work to get done and no easy fixes. It'll take 2 to 3 years to get this team back to being competitive.

Except for item 1, that's exactly what Bill tried this season. We know the results. He'll be a year older with almost no draw for new players based on the team being ass, having no known QB, and Bill's reputation sinking. If you're Higgins or Evans, why in the world would you come here? They won't.

Sure, we'll win more games, mainly because we've got nowhere to go but up. It won't be enough. Another losing record, no playoffs, and one more lost season. More games filled with bone headed plays, penalties, **** STs, etc. Nothing will change. There's zero evidence for your wish to come true. Plenty of evidence for what I'm saying to happen.

Just to be clear, I am not trying to predict the future. I suck at doing that. I am just saying what I would like to see happen. I hope BB stays but if they go a different direction, I will support that plan and hope that ownership makes the right decision to make the team better. I am clearly just a football fan without all the info needed to make these kinds of decisions and I would never pretend to think that I have any answers that are better than any other fan or (especially) ownership.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I would like to see him stay on one more year. The defense is elite (especially if Judon and Gonzalez are back next year), now we know Mac isn't the guy (so maybe Kraft will stay out of his way with the next QB) and I think giving him one last try to right the ship would be very reasonable (if he wants to stay) considering all he has done for our favorite football team.

My biggest concern about losing Belichick as HC is the coaching of defensive backs. There is no better coach at developing great defensive backs than Belichick, and that’s critical in this era of high passing football. Not that there isn’t anyone else who can do it, but Belichick can turn just about any defensive back into a good to great player. However, he can’t be in control over all personnel anymore, there is just too much at stake this offseason to risk a wasted offseason.

Yiou really would want the #2 or #3 picks of the Jones draft?

Every draft is different, and you know that. You wouldn’t want the #2 or #3 pick in the drafts Mahomes and Allen came out in? You wouldn’t want C.J. Stroud?

This is a good Draft for QB prospects, and the Patriots will have their pick of either all
or almost all of them, and that’s exactly what I want,

 

[Calhoun44]

Guys like Gonzalez were playing when teams were having success against us early in the season

Wow. Tough crowd. The guy was a rookie playing against at least two of the top offenses in the league and by most accounts folks thought he handled himself exceptionally. Then he got hurt. Now it seems as though you might be saying he wasn't/isn't a good player. Am I reading that correctly?

 

[Huckleberry1]

No, no , no

Folks seem to think that we can draft a Qb in the top 3 picks and we are set at QB. That just isn't true.

Parsons is a great choice a couple of years later. How many top 15 players are team leaders and all-pro's?

Now you’re just making **** up. No one is saying any QB is a lock, what we are saying is that a high pick gives you the best shot at the an prospect you want, and that’s just common sense.

 

[BennyBledsoe]

Right now, if the line is not fixed, any rookie QB can NOT develop. Without at least two reliable receiving options, any rookie QB can not develop.

In short, if we draft a QB, and we're not addressing those positions, that drafted QB needs to sit until the OL and WR issues are solved. Let some other sucker get their ass kicked.

 

[lancerman]

Wow. Tough crowd. The guy was a rookie playing against at least two of the top offenses in the league and by most accounts folks thought he handled himself exceptionally. Then he got hurt. Now it seems as though you might be saying he wasn't/isn't a good player. Am I reading that correctly?

You can't look at 3 games against subpar opponents to declare the defense great and say "oh these other guys will come back" and then ignore that when they played quality offenses, they got lit up even when healthy. We are slated to lose defensive players next years. We can't assume this 3 game stretch is indicative of longterm success.

Gonzalez is good. The defense still got lit up with him on it when they played good teams. How can you say that won't happen next year? Especially when we will likely be losing strong contributors on defense next year.

 

[venecol]

Wow. Tough crowd. The guy was a rookie playing against at least two of the top offenses in the league and by most accounts folks thought he handled himself exceptionally. Then he got hurt. Now it seems as though you might be saying he wasn't/isn't a good player. Am I reading that correctly?

I think Gonzalez showed he has the size and talent to be a great CB. I like him. Good pick. I think that what we've seen since 2019 is the defense playing great against sub .500 teams with rookie or back-up QBs but not so much against teams with elite skill players. It's been pretty consistent. If you add to that the mainly anemic offense (even in 2019), you end up with a losing record in Dec/Jan every season since 2019. That never happened before. The Pats were known for getting better as the year went on and had great records in Dec/Jan.

 

[condon84]

Yup, that's a fine absolute. How well did that strategy work in the Mac Jones draft year?

Here's a good article about drafting a QB in the first round - The NFL draft is coming. If your team drafts a 'franchise' quarterback in the first round, brace for failure

Maholmes is the only QB taken in the first round to have taken his team to the SB since 2011.

As far as this thread, if Belichick stays, he needs to hire a proven OL coach, a proven WR coach. Scar retiring has been devastating. Troy Brown isn't getting the job done.

 

[venecol]

Here's a good article about drafting a QB in the first round - The NFL draft is coming. If your team drafts a 'franchise' quarterback in the first round, brace for failure

Maholmes is the only QB taken in the first round to have taken his team to the SB since 2011.

As far as this thread, if Belichick stays, he needs to hire a proven OL coach, a proven WR coach. Scar retiring has been devastating. Troy Brown isn't getting the job done.

Although coaching matters, the real issue is lack of talent while not having a top 10 QB. Bill hired a proven OC/QB coach and we've seen the results.

Remember when people were saying that BoB was good for 3 more wins (vs Patricia). Good times.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I don't see how we reasonably can expect to hit on a QB next year that makes an impact and have another one as a competent back up or enough to keep the ship steady until a rookie is ready. At least one quality #1 WR and probably another decent 2 option, at least 1 or 2 offensive lineman, and I guess a linebacker. You can also add a kicker to that as well.

I hear what you're saying. And I do agree that the entire offense needs an overhaul. But it's really not as impossible as you make it sound to turn the team around from terrible to competitive in say a couple of years time.

Just to give you the counter example to your theory look at the Houston Texans.

2022 Texans 3-13. Offense 17.0 PPG 30th ranked in the NFL. Defense 24.7 PPG 27th ranked.

In 2023 the Houston Texans select CJ Stroud #2 overall in the draft.

2023 Texans 7-5. Offense 23.4 PPG 10th ranked in the NFL. Defense 20.8 ppg 12th ranked.

Obviously the Texans made some additional moves besides drafting Stroud but he's clearly the key Domino piece that changed their fortunes.

And I'm not even demanding that the Patriots instantly turn into a winning team in 1 year. Let's say we draft our franchise QB and have him 'learn' behind a veteran and then start the next year. That's fine as long as the team is moving in the right directon. But you can't give up on doing the rebuild before it even starts and just say 'it's too hard'.

Let's also consider that the Patriots will have around 75 million in free agency dollars to spend in 2024 along with what looks like a top 2 pick in a Golden generation of QBs coming up. I'd say that's our BEST chance to improve. And our front office can NOT afford to screw up the upcoming draft and free agency period.

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