The Patriots technically "control their own destiny" for #2 overall. Arizona is ahead of them, but only because they have not had their bye yet so they've lost an additional game. If the Pats lose out and the Cardinals lose out, they'll have the same record, and Arizona will likely have a higher SOS so the Pats will get #2. At least in all likelihood unless some of the teams they have yet to play drastically change their records. The Cardinals currently already have a higher SOS, and their remaining games have an overall SOS of about .625. The Patriots' remaining opponents have an overall SOS of about .522.
Interestingly, if the Panthers win 1 more game and the Saints, Falcons and Bucs all collectively accumulate a few wins to raise the Panther's remaining SOS, the Pats could end up with #1 overall based on SOS.