Is the New England Patriot Defense Elite?

[SammyBlueCat]

We have experienced heated discussions on this topic in other threads.

Please weigh in.

 

[Guts]

On paper yes

 

[Kontradiction]

I’ll let you know in mid-October. They have the potential to be a very good unit, though. Too many X-factors that aren’t known right now. Will Gonzo hit the ground running? How much will they miss McCourty’s presence and leadership?

 

[TheRainMaker]

No. Many posters, including myself have shown why they are not. However, it's not that big of a deal as no defense in the NFL is elite. Every defense has good players at one or two levels, but they all have glaring flaws that show up at some point. Last year, the Pats major flaws were defending elite WR's at the boundaries and the middle of the field.

I like the potential of the pass rush this year with the combo of Judon, Uche, Wise, Barmore and White. I think they eclipse 50 sacks again for the 2nd consecutive year. Gonzalez is the X Factor in the secondary along with who can defend the middle of the field.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

The D has the talent to be at the top of the league. Elite defenses need complimentary offenses and special teams that win the field position battle. While it is expected that good teams will have better results, the real issue last year was that the offense did not hold the ball long enough to allow the D to catch its breath and the ST often gave the opposing team great field position. Sooner or later the D got worn down and the games got out of hand against good offenses.

 

[Pape]

nope.

very few defenses in the league can be called elite

as it stands, we are not one of them.

We might be good/very good, but if we are using the only "elite" measuring stick worth its salt, the FEAY's system (Flacco's Elite, Are You?), I don't think our defense is quite there yet...

 

[Nunchucks]

They have a lot of talent, they could be, but need to prove it on the field.

 

[VrabelJr]

The success of the defense really hinges on a few things in order of importance (omitting health because that's obvious):

1) Can the DL control the point of attack against the run and consistently get pressure? You simply can't cover WRs for long anymore. Godchaux's role in particular is huge. We've got edge defenders galore but need to hold up in the middle.

2) LBs making plays in coverage. We have smart LBs but we need fast ones or else we're going to end up with only Bentley on the field with a bunch of extra Safeties that make us susceptible to long run plays. Tavai is always improving but it's not a good thing when he's on the field.

3) Can Duggar take the next step in Football Intelligence? He has the potential to make the entire Secondary better.

 

[Kontradiction]

They have a lot of talent, they could be, but need to prove it on the field.

Great post, man. Thanks. Never thought of it like that before.

 

[Hyped]

Yes, definitely elite. For these reasons:

1.) I'd rank our secondary #1 in the league. Some other teams may have a better starting CB tandem or a better pair of safeties...but nobody else has the depth the Patriots have all over the secondary...even with D-Mac hanging em' up. Heck, we even have linebackers/safeties (Peppers, Mapu, Bentley, and Wilson) dropping back in coverage or moving up to the LOS. My issue this year would be how the secondary communicates with one another. D-Mac coordinated a lot of that back end communication....

2.) Linebackers? Probably the best group we have had in a long while...Bentley and Tavai have done a great job and are solid players. Mapu joining that group...and Wilson looking good in camp. That coupled with our off-the-ball pass rushers... really..it is almost as if we don't have linebackers because we will be in sub defenses most of the time anyway. There used to be great linebackers in the NFL...nowadays...its different...but I'd rank the Pats LB corps in the top 10 league wide.

3.) Defensive line....again we have Judon/Uche dropping down for run support...Mapu/Peppers too. I am hoping Barmore is injury free this year...he is the guy with the most potential for providing an interior rush. I'd also like to see Godchaux bounce back. Not the best D-Line in the NFL....but a top 15 one, IMO.

4.) This is a passing league....and I love our defense's ability to mix up looks and play versatile players all over the place. We are well built to withstand the best passing attacks in the NFL. This defense still will give up points the more it is on the field....which is why we need complementary offense and ST's. But if we need to limit the #1 opponent passing offense to 24ppg with our offense's TOP under 20 minutes...I love our chances at doing so. We had some good first halves defensively last year...allowing ~10ppg before the wheels fell off in the 2nd half.

 

[PatsFan2]

Sammy I'll tell you after the First Four Regular season games.

 

[Kasmir]

"Elite" is a subjective term that has no accepted definition.

As for the Pats this year, no one knows, but last year they were a top defense by most measures.

I know most of you despise statistical analysis because it cramps your style, but at least systems like DVOA are objective and comparative.

For those who claim the Pats defense "feasted on weak opponents" I did a DVOA analysis of which teams fell off the most when facing strong offenses (Note that negative DVOA is better for defenses):

The defenses that did worse when adjusting for offense were PHI (+4.3%), DAL (+3.9%), and SF (+2.3%).

The defenses that did better were NYJ (-5.1%), NO (-2.3%), BAL (-1.8%), NE (-1.7%), BUF (-1.1%), WAS (-1.3%), DEN (-1.2%)

Again that is only looking at the top 10 defenses by DVOA.

So by DVOA, PHI, DAL, and SF "feasted on weak offenses". The rest of the top defenses -- especially NYJ but including NE -- did relatively better when credited for the DVOA strength of opposing offenses.

2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Defense | Football Outsiders

www.footballoutsiders.com

 

[stinkypete]

You don't have to squint too hard to see the young core of Barmore, Uche, White, Mapu, Bentley, Dugger, Gonzalez and the Jones coalescing into an elite unit. It's gonna time some time though. We have impending free angents to sign, and CBs need a couple of years to reach their ceiling. It could happen, or it could get blown up before its able to mature.

For now the defense is good with top 10 potential. However to hit elite status, a defense has to be able to hold an elite offense off in a big game. Hasn't happened here since 2019,

 

[Chevy]

Define "Elite".

BB says - make them go on long drives. Lock down the red zone. So, yards will always look bad - out of context.

If this year's defense can turn, lets say, 15% of last year's TD drives into one category lower (TD to FG, FG to punt/turn over) then yes, it will be elite.

 

[Real fan 02]

You don't have to squint too hard to see the young core of Barmore, Uche, White, Mapu, Bentley, Dugger, Gonzalez and the Jones coalescing into an elite unit. It's gonna time some time though. We have impending free angents to sign, and CBs need a couple of years to reach their ceiling. It could happen, or it could get blown up before its able to mature.

For now the defense is good with top 10 potential. However to hit elite status, a defense has to be able to hold an elite offense off in a big game. Hasn't happened here since 2019,

Us, San Francisco and the jets.. I'd say are " elite " defensive units in the 2023 NFL. Where the rules are all geared toward scoring. Passing is at an all time high. Teams are not going to completely shut down offenses. Last season they showed the traits of an elite defense holding teams in the red zone, stopping them on 3rd down and take aways. This defense was put in terrible positions last season by the offense. Our pass rush is top 5 in the league.. we have a formidable pass rush, adding white, Mapu and my guy gonzo will only help! This era of the NFL CB'S are coming in from pro systems run in college so other than the speed of the game the learning curve isn't as steep as it once was. Gonzo just needs to play with his natural instincts and study the habits of WRs he'll adjust.

 

[BTTA]

I think this is one of those generational questions, as in, the older you are, the more you've seen, the stingier you are with the term "elite."
I'm halfway into my seventh decade. I've seen about a half dozen elite defenses in that time. So no, we ain't nowhere near that status.

I'd define the term as an indication that any offense will need to significantly alter its standard playbook to have hope of scoring more single digits.

Others may define the term differently, which is fine. Let's just agree to be explicit about that so we don't end up arguing aimlessly.

 

[Kasmir]

Us, San Francisco and the jets.. I'd say are " elite " defensive units in the 2023 NFL. Where the rules are all geared toward scoring. Passing is at an all time high. Teams are not going to completely shut down offenses. Last season they showed the traits of an elite defense holding teams in the red zone, stopping them on 3rd down and take aways. This defense was put in terrible positions last season by the offense. Our pass rush is top 5 in the league.. we have a formidable pass rush, adding white, Mapu and my guy gonzo will only help! This era of the NFL CB'S are coming in from pro systems run in college so other than the speed of the game the learning curve isn't as steep as it once was. Gonzo just needs to play with his natural instincts and study the habits of WRs he'll adjust.

Those happen to be the 3 teams -- in that order -- that finished last year as the top 3 in weighted defensive DVOA

2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Defense | Football Outsiders

www.footballoutsiders.com

 

[sb1]

Last year we managed to be a top 10 run defense for the first time since 2019 and that includes bad games against the Ravens Packers and Bears. Both seasons before that we were in the bottom 25% of the league in run defense.

As others have said elite is relative. If elite means one of the best in the league today sure why not.

 

[Real fan 02]

Those happen to be the 3 teams -- in that order -- that finished last year as the top 3 in weighted defensive DVOA

2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Defense | Football Outsiders

www.footballoutsiders.com

You are definitely right my friend!! Just think if we had even a middling offense last season.. we'd have at least 10, 11 wins.. our defense was scoring more than the offense was at times!

 

[Kasmir]

You are definitely right my friend!! Just think if we had even a middling offense last season.. we'd have at least 10, 11 wins.. our defense was scoring more than the offense was at times!

Not to mention our PPG including 3 special team scores given up. If you normalize PPG for the above average offense and special teams TD's given up and above average defensive scores our PPG was also top 3.