Hopkins Headed to Tennessee

[Bill Lee]

I'll post this part in here also as I transcribed his video earlier:

Monday Patriots Notebook 7/17: News and Notes | PatsFans.com

Some New England Patriots news and notes for Monday, July 17, 2023.

www.patsfans.com

Orlovsky Views Tight Ends as the Key​

Dan Orlovsky of ESPN posted a video following the news of Hopkins landing in Tennessee and while he believes it’s a big loss for the Patriots, he feels like the tight ends might ultimately make up the difference in how successful they potentially are this season.

Orlovsky believes it’s an offense that’s certainly under a lot more pressure, but with their defense, he’s confident that they’ve still got a shot.

“Congrats to Tennessee on getting D-Hop, I did not expect that,” said Orlovsky. “It gives them a chance to win the [AFC] South now if D-Hop is who we have grown accustomed to him being and [Mike] Vrabel as their head coach.”

“The more obvious thing for me is, two things. Number one, it feels like a massive missed opportunity and loss for the Patriots and Mac Jones going into a huge year. Number one, because just look at the division. They are worst in the division when it comes to overall skill talent by far and bottom three or bottom four in the conference.”

“So now you’re going to expect your offense to have enough firepower to compete against the Jets and the Dolphins and the Bills and basically everyone in the AFC, and you don’t, and you also expect your quarterback to take a big step and he’s got not nearly the amount of weapons that other quarterbacks have.”

“The second thing I think of, there is tremendous pressure now on Bill O’Brien, their playcaller – who’s awesome – but also Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki. It makes me think that New England will major, not minor, major in 12 personnel – one back, two tight ends – and absolutely live in that. Because they don’t have the people on the outside wide receiver-wise to really contend firepower-wise scoring points with everyone they have to.”

“So it feels like this is a big missed opportunity for New England and Mac Jones. But if those two tight ends play together and they become one of the, if not the top 2, 3 duos in the Conference, they’ve got a shot with great defense. But it’s a lot of pressure on those two units.”

Thanks for the clarification, and for posting this info too.

It seems Bill just can't sleep at night till he has a dependable TE in his offense.

WR1, not so much.

People can vent all they want to, but it's pretty clear Bill isn't going to change, and IMO there's no way Krafty Bob gives him the boot, even if we suck this year.

So, looks like we're gonna get another season of good defense with a ball control offense, like it or not.

 

[Steve102]

think they were just trying to protect some of the financial flexability that comes with an offer structured like that one?

I don't know. I think @RobertWeathers point of 41% of games is a factor, and Bill is not going to extend on a player who might be really good and might be on a treadmill. I don't think we are talking Moss for a 4th rounder on a real friendly contract. I think Bill looks at it and says "this is what we will risk" for this guy.

Wanna talk about the too soon 2024 FA class? It's going to be the same deal when Mike Evans is on the market. WR on the other side of 30.

 

[Wozzy]

Can Mac make that next jump with this cast of WR's?? I think we Need more than Juju.

They have two great TE's in Gesicki and Henry.

They have very good established WR's in Parker, Juju and Bourne.

They have potential stars in Thornton and Marcus Jones, both need to develop and stay healthy... but the athleticism is there.

They have potential contributors in Tre Nixon, Ed Lee, Raleigh Webb and Malik Cunningham.

There's maybe 3-4 WR's in the league that scare opposing coordinators. If the Pats youth develops and the unit stays healthy, they have a great group of weapons.

There's some projection here, the kids have to develop and they need to stay healthy. They also have a great group of young RB's, but they could afford to add another body there.

It's rarely the team that has the one superweapon that wins it all, it's generally the teams that have the best group. Football is about matchups.

 

[Steve102]

Thanks for the clarification, and for posting this info too.

It seems Bill just can't sleep at night till he has a dependable TE in his offense.

WR1, not so much.

People can vent all they want to, but it's pretty clear Bill isn't going to change, and IMO there's no way Krafty Bob gives him the boot, even if we suck this year.

So, looks like we're gonna get another season of good defense with a ball control offense, like it or not.

Yeah, I think he does not view the WR position the way many posters here do. He looks at roster building very differently from a lot of fantasy football fans here, and even differently from other GMs in the league. TE is more important here, and obviously CB has always been a thing.

 

[Brewskies]

Not signing Hopkins is disappointing. He might have brought some excitement to the WR core. Mac Jones maybe could throw a pass or two to him beyond 25 yards. Oh well, what about Cook to help Stevenson? No that's not happening either. Where is the excitement with the Pats? Using the double TEs until the opposing teams figure out how to stop this offense.

 

[Vindicate]

This could be me coping, but:

It's a really difficult season for the Patriots. Looking at the long term, is this the season to shell out for a veteran WR? I'm always thinking about the long term (potentially to a fault) and it raises questions like: what is Hopkins' effect long-term? Will that net positive carry into the next season when he's potentially gone? Can we keep this guy happy enough to not divide the locker room?

I think ultimately I would've loved to see the signing because it'd confirm for me that there is a belief that his output would benefit us long-term (encourage and inspire other receivers, encourage Max, etc.) But maybe the Patriots staff didn't see that to be true. This season would be a slog for even Brady (but then again, in the instance it's a no-brainer: get Hopkins. Brady can maximize the value of almost all signings. Can Mac do that?)

 

[PatsFan2]

think they were just trying to protect some of the financial flexability that comes with an offer structured like that one?

You do that with Meh player likes Parker not with a Player of D-Hop's caliber we're too cute.

 

[crawhammer]

Some people seem to be overlooking that the Patriots wanted Hopkins on their roster. That's undeniable. So clearly they don't think 1) Hopkins is washed up or 2) that their current WR corps is satisfactory.

 

[Vindicate]

This could be me coping, but:

It's a really difficult season for the Patriots. Looking at the long term, is this the season to shell out for a veteran WR? I'm always thinking about the long term (potentially to a fault) and it raises questions like: what is Hopkins' effect long-term? Will that net positive carry into the next season when he's potentially gone? Can we keep this guy happy enough to not divide the locker room?

I think ultimately I would've loved to see the signing because it'd confirm for me that there is a belief that his output would benefit us long-term (encourage and inspire other receivers, encourage Max, etc.) But maybe the Patriots staff didn't see that to be true. This season would be a slog for even Brady (but then again, in the instance it's a no-brainer: get Hopkins. Brady can maximize the value of almost all signings. Can Mac do that?)

As I hit post on that, it did occur to me: the Patriots had a chance last season to get a read on Mac and gauge his ability to maximize value of signees, and they squandered the hell out of it. At that point, they're a victim of their own preponderance to be very analytical.

 

[PatsFan2]

They have two great TE's in Gesicki and Henry.

They have very good established WR's in Parker, Juju and Bourne.

They have potential stars in Thornton and Marcus Jones, both need to develop and stay healthy... but the athleticism is there.

They have potential contributors in Tre Nixon, Ed Lee, Raleigh Webb and Malik Cunningham.

There's maybe 3-4 WR's in the league that scare opposing coordinators. If the Pats youth develops and the unit stays healthy, they have a great group of weapons.

There's some projection here, the kids have to develop and they need to stay healthy. They also have a great group of young RB's, but they could afford to add another body there.

It's rarely the team that has the one superweapon that wins it all, it's generally the teams that have the best group. Football is about matchups.

Really Great TE's?? Stopped reading right there.

 

[RodThePat]

There's maybe 3-4 WR's in the league that scare opposing coordinators

Try about 20. That's an insane take.

 

[Pape]

Who was willing to pay David Andrews a large bag of money... nobody.

He's a center with "good" not "great" athleticism who is more valuable to the Patriots than any other team because he knows their system.

I don't know who. He's better than Karras, and look at what he got. He came back for cheap.

 

[Pape]

Try about 20. That's an insane take.

there are three or four on the dolphins & bengals combined...

 

[crawhammer]

They have two great TE's in Gesicki and Henry.

Great?? Neither has ever been close to 1000 yards in 11 combined seasons. Neither are good blockers either.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I don't know. I think @RobertWeathers point of 41% of games is a factor, and Bill is not going to extend on a player who might be really good and might be on a treadmill. I don't think we are talking Moss for a 4th rounder on a real friendly contract. I think Bill looks at it and says "this is what we will risk" for this guy.

Wanna talk about the too soon 2024 FA class? It's going to be the same deal when Mike Evans is on the market. WR on the other side of 30.

Age too. If fans want to throw out the PED suspension fine but the fact is he took PEDs because he is an older player and needed help to recover from an injury.

When it comes to paying older players, fans hate the actuarial approach the team takes but they are right more often than not.

 

[PatsFan2]

Yeah, I think he does not view the WR position the way many posters here do. He looks at roster building very differently from a lot of fantasy football fans here, and even differently from other GMs in the league. TE is more important here, and obviously CB has always been a thing.

Too bad because no Teams will be game planning for our bunch of meh WR's very easy to defend. We have NO WR on our Roster who commands a Double Team. And even T Thornton with that speed is still in prove it mode: bottom still of the barrel type group. That doesn't bode well for the recent BB Teams or Offense post GOAT QB.

 

[Pape]

Wanna talk about the too soon 2024 FA class? It's going to be the same deal when Mike Evans is on the market. WR on the other side of 30.

i really don't... took a look at it just the same... Its ugly out there brother...

 

[PatsFan2]

Great?? Neither has ever been close to 1000 yards in 11 combined seasons. Neither are good blockers either.

Yeah I stopped reading at that very point too I'm a litttle optimistic but more realist.

 

[Steve102]

i really don't... took a look at it just the same... Its ugly out there brother...

yeah, there's no one out there.

 

[Patsgofor4]

Try about 20. That's an insane take.

Yeah, 3-4 is way too low. I’d say 12-15 is about right.