DRAFT Chad Ryland - Round 4 - 112th overall

[moosekill]

Bill panicked. Plain and simple.

Like a child obsessing over a trinket, Belichick just had to do this boneheaded move.

Still doesn’t sit right in my craw.

But doncha know he was a worthy fourth-rounder as well?

Meanwhile, just to take a broader view, the best most clutch kicker in our team’s modern history (RIP, Gino) was undrafted.

Someone named Adam.

And I read that this kid was only 3 out of 6 from beyond 50. Yeah, a big leg but the lack of consistency means old man Folk, only four years older than our new tackle Reiff, and very consistent from 47 yards and in, will not go gentle into that dark night.

Could Bill decide to carry both on the 53? If so, that would be hilarious.

And the Krafts should bring in a GM for next year.

Wow the trolls are out on the kickers. Go back under your bridge your Schtick is old and boring.

 

[DaBruinz]

Bill panicked. Plain and simple.

Like a child obsessing over a trinket, Belichick just had to do this boneheaded move.

Still doesn’t sit right in my craw.

But doncha know he was a worthy fourth-rounder as well?

Meanwhile, just to take a broader view, the best most clutch kicker in our team’s modern history (RIP, Gino) was undrafted.

Someone named Adam.

And I read that this kid was only 3 out of 6 from beyond 50. Yeah, a big leg but the lack of consistency means old man Folk, only four years older than our new tackle Reiff, and very consistent from 47 yards and in, will not go gentle into that dark night.

Could Bill decide to carry both on the 53? If so, that would be hilarious.

And the Krafts should bring in a GM for next year.

Adam wasn't better than Gostkowski who was also a 4th round pick.

You've spewed the same moronic nonsense multiple times. Not matter how many times you say it, it won't be LESS moronic or MORE true.

No. The Krafts shouldn't bring in a GM. They already have one. And he's a sight better than you or Captain could ever hope to be.

 

[upstater1]

Bill panicked. Plain and simple.

Like a child obsessing over a trinket, Belichick just had to do this boneheaded move.

Still doesn’t sit right in my craw.

But doncha know he was a worthy fourth-rounder as well?

Meanwhile, just to take a broader view, the best most clutch kicker in our team’s modern history (RIP, Gino) was undrafted.

Someone named Adam.

And I read that this kid was only 3 out of 6 from beyond 50. Yeah, a big leg but the lack of consistency means old man Folk, only four years older than our new tackle Reiff, and very consistent from 47 yards and in, will not go gentle into that dark night.

Could Bill decide to carry both on the 53? If so, that would be hilarious.

And the Krafts should bring in a GM for next year.

Thank god you're not in charge of the draft. Ryland wouldn't have been there when we picked. The team picking after the Jets ended up taking a guy not nearly as good in the 5th round. That team didn't panic, but they did get stuck with an untalented kicker.

I like Ryland a lt more than Moody anyway. Low line drives like Moody kicks don't cut it in the NFL.

 

[AQPE]

Will be interesting to see how the new kickoff/fair catch rule affects the Folk vs. Ryland competition (assuming they even let Folk compete for the job considering the draft capital they invested in Ryland). The rule seems like it works in favor of a guy like Folk who wouldn’t be kicking touchbacks anyway. Folk has been quite good overall but he is 38. I can’t see him having any trade value.

Obviously we who are in fact Pats fans just hope Ryland works out well. I’m not generally in love with taking specialists in the draft, but if you don’t have a kicker and punter you can count on it can easily blow up your whole season.

 

[50-yard-line]

Will be interesting to see how the new kickoff/fair catch rule affects the Folk vs. Ryland competition (assuming they even let Folk compete for the job considering the draft capital they invested in Ryland). The rule seems like it works in favor of a guy like Folk who wouldn’t be kicking touchbacks anyway. Folk has been quite good overall but he is 38. I can’t see him having any trade value.

Good observation. I hate that the NFL just simplified the game even more.
On the other hand, both kickoff returns for TDs by the Bills in that game with the Pats last year were GIFTED by utterly blown non-calls. I'm also not sure many returners will take the fair catch - I can't believe how many guys still catch the ball four yards deep and try to run it out (even on the Pats), letting their team have 80+-yard-drive potential.

Obviously we who are in fact Pats fans just hope Ryland works out well. I’m not generally in love with taking specialists in the draft, but if you don’t have a kicker and punter you can count on it can easily blow up your whole season.

I'm not down on taking specialists when you have that many picks, but yeah, it's not usually what you want to do.

 

[Wozzy]

The top 22 players in 2022 who led the league in scoring were kickers, it wasn’t until 23 where skill player Austin Ekeler appeared on the scoring list.

But we don’t need a kicker and the 4th round was a waste… some real smooth brain mouth breathing types here.

 

[Sciz]

And I read that this kid was only 3 out of 6 from beyond 50. Yeah, a big leg but the lack of consistency means old man Folk, only four years older than our new tackle Reiff, and very consistent from 47 yards and in, will not go gentle into that dark night.

Two of those 50+ misses were kicks that don’t exist in the NFL, from the college hash that’s a few yards outside the goalpost. Every FG that Ryland ever attempts again will have the ball placed inside the NFL hash marks and therefore lined up between the goalposts.

 

[DaBruinz]

The top 22 players in 2022 who led the league in scoring were kickers, it wasn’t until 23 where skill player Austin Ekeler appeared on the scoring list.

But we don’t need a kicker and the 4th round was a waste… some real smooth brain mouth breathing types here.

The following of the top 20 were draft picks:
Daniel Carlson
Tyler Bass
Nick Folk
Jason Sanders
Greg Zeurlein
Ryan Succop
Matt Gay
Mason Crosby
Evan McPhearson
Jake Elliott

That's fully HALF the top 20 in scoring.

 

[Sicilian]

Will be interesting to see how the new kickoff/fair catch rule affects the Folk vs. Ryland competition (assuming they even let Folk compete for the job considering the draft capital they invested in Ryland). The rule seems like it works in favor of a guy like Folk who wouldn’t be kicking touchbacks anyway. Folk has been quite good overall but he is 38. I can’t see him having any trade value.

Obviously we who are in fact Pats fans just hope Ryland works out well. I’m not generally in love with taking specialists in the draft, but if you don’t have a kicker and punter you can count on it can easily blow up your whole season.

In a way I think it will hurt a guy like Folk. The kickoffs that teams would potentially want to fair catch are the high, arcing ones that take a while to land inside the 5. Folk was kicking it to the 5 on a line drive, which is why Hines was able to return them in that last Buffalo game. With Folk's leg, if he tried to do the high arcing kickoff, it's probably coming down at the 10-15, and I'm guessing teams are taking their chances that they can get at least 10 yards if not more in that scenario. Big leg will still win out for kickoffs, IMO.

 

[Kasmir]

The following of the top 20 were draft picks:
Daniel Carlson
Tyler Bass
Nick Folk
Jason Sanders
Greg Zeurlein
Ryan Succop
Matt Gay
Mason Crosby
Evan McPhearson
Jake Elliott

That's fully HALF the top 20 in scoring.

DVOA is a useful tool to quantify these kind of differences because is based on actual measurements of performance contribution to wins and losses -- so you can compare kickers to (say) QB's.

Just looking at the FG/XP game (i.e. ignoring kickoffs) for 2022, there's a +10% to -10% DVOA difference between the best kicker and the worst kicker.

The DVOA range for QB's in 2022 was +30% to -30%.

The difference between the best kicker and the worst kicker was 1/3 the difference between the best QB and the worst QB! That's a lot riding on one player -- especially given that QB DVOA is affected by the quality of the receivers etc while a kickers FG/XP contribution is pretty much an individual one.

Quantifying that in their model, an average team will win 1.5 more games by upgrading to the best kicker and lose 1.5 more games downgrading to the worst kicker.

If you can truly identify a great kicker in the draft, it looks like it makes a ton of sense to spend a mid round pick on him.

Caveat: I only looked at 2022. A thorough analysis would look at multiple years particularly to see how much of the FG/XP DVOA variation was skill and how much was noise.

2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Special Teams | Football Outsiders

www.footballoutsiders.com

2022 Quarterbacks | Football Outsiders

www.footballoutsiders.com

2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Overall | Football Outsiders

www.footballoutsiders.com

 

[Wozzy]

DVOA is a useful tool to quantify these kind of differences because is based on actual measurements of performance contribution to wins and losses -- so you can compare kickers to (say) QB's.

Just looking at the FG/XP game (i.e. ignoring kickoffs) for 2022, there's a +10% to -10% DVOA difference between the best kicker and the worst kicker.

The DVOA range for QB's in 2022 was +30% to -30%.

The difference between the best kicker and the worst kicker was 1/3 the difference between the best QB and the worst QB! That's a lot riding on one player -- especially given that QB DVOA is affected by the quality of the receivers etc while a kickers FG/XP contribution is pretty much an individual one.

Quantifying that in their model, an average team will win 1.5 more games by upgrading to the best kicker and lose 1.5 more games downgrading to the worst kicker.

If you can truly identify a great kicker in the draft, it looks like it makes a ton of sense to spend a mid round pick on him.

Caveat: I only looked at 2022. A thorough analysis would look at multiple years particularly to see how much of the FG/XP DVOA variation was skill and how much was noise.

2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Special Teams | Football Outsiders

www.footballoutsiders.com

2022 Quarterbacks | Football Outsiders

www.footballoutsiders.com

2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Overall | Football Outsiders

www.footballoutsiders.com

We constantly hear, from many of the same negative nancy’s poo pooing this pick, how QB’s are the most important position in football.

Important because only one plays and can make a big difference in actual games. But kickers, the highest scorers in football, don’t receive this type of respect after a draft pick is made.

Year after year we see examples of teams losing in the playoffs because their season long inconsistent kicker couldn’t be relied on. We also see teams losing weekly as they have a turnstile of kickers being brought in on tryouts only to be let go the very next week.

The Patriots have been very good at scouting and selecting special teams players in both the draft and free agency. There hasn’t been a lot of wasted resources.

If they felt like there were two kickers worth acquiring in this entire draft class, one came off the board earlier, then taking a kicker in the fourth was a smart move. This isn’t fantasy football, it’s real-life football and games are won and lost because of points.

 

[State]

Adam wasn't better than Gostkowsk

You’re wronger than a chick without breasts.

 

[State]

The Patriots have been very good at scouting and selecting special teams players

Meanwhile, at the tackle position, who is that? Calvin Schiraldi?

Oh, Mac is not gonna make it with all those punishing hits.

But we have the best third string gunner in the whole NFL!

 

[Wozzy]

Meanwhile, at the tackle position, who is that? Calvin Schiraldi?

Oh, Mac is not gonna make it with all those punishing hits.

But we have the best third string gunner in the whole NFL!

Rarely have I entered any season being entirely comfortable with any position group or overly confident. Injury is the great equalizer and anything can happen. That being said Trent Brown has shown the ability to play OT at a Pro Bowl level. I really liked Calvin Anderson as an UDFA rookie and said as much on Patriots forums, now he returns more experienced and having starts at LT under his belt. Reiff is a known commodity assuming health. McDermott is a swingman backup but a good one. I don't have much faith in Stueber or Hines, but they're both big. They'll have serious depth on the interior if things go south and need to kick Onwenu outside, he can do it and do it well.

Sidy Sow played left tackle as a freshman in college, he has the size, length and athleticism to play tackle now. We'll see if he can... which is no different from drafting a guy who played tackle his senior season. Nothing you did in college matters at this point, or where you were drafted... all that matters is how you play. This is a pretty good group to start camp with, no matter how much you complain about it.

 

[PatsWSB47]

We constantly hear, from many of the same negative nancy’s poo pooing this pick, how QB’s are the most important position in football.

Important because only one plays and can’t make a big difference in actual games. But kickers, the highest scorers in football, don’t receive this type of respect after a draft pick is made.

Year after year we see examples of teams losing in the playoffs because their season long inconsistent kicker couldn’t be relied on. We also see teams losing weekly as they have a turnstile of kickers being brought in on tryouts only to be let go the very next week.

The Patriots have been very good at scouting and selecting special teams players in both the draft and free agency. There hasn’t been a lot of wasted resources. If they felt like there were two kickers worth acquiring in this entire draft class, one came off the board earlier, then taking a kicker in the fourth was a smart move. This isn’t fantasy football, it’s real-life football and games are won and lost because of points.

A top tier kicker is very valuable but a top tier quarterback is more valuable.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Good observation. I hate that the NFL just simplified the game even more.
On the other hand, both kickoff returns for TDs by the Bills in that game with the Pats last year were GIFTED by utterly blown non-calls.

And let us not forget (A) Folk's inability to kick touchbacks and (B) injuries (Brenden Schooler being inactive was something of a surprise).

 

[Kasmir]

[snarky post deleted]

 

[Wozzy]

A top tier kicker is very valuable but a top tier quarterback is more valuable.

QB's are most important, both are important... it's a team sport.

 

[PatsFan2]

Rarely have I entered any season being entirely comfortable with any position group or overly confident. Injury is the great equalizer and anything can happen. That being said Trent Brown has shown the ability to play OT at a Pro Bowl level. I really liked Calvin Anderson as an UDFA rookie and said as much on Patriots forums, now he returns more experienced and having starts at LT under his belt. Reiff is a known commodity assuming health. McDermott is a swingman backup but a good one. I don't have much faith in Stueber or Hines, but they're both big. They'll have serious depth on the interior if things go south and need to kick Onwenu outside, he can do it and do it well.

Sidy Sow played left tackle as a freshman in college, he has the size, length and athleticism to play tackle now. We'll see if he can... which is no different from drafting a guy who played tackle his senior season. Nothing you did in college matters at this point, or where you were drafted... all that matters is how you play. This is a pretty good group to start camp with, no matter how much you complain about it.

I must have read that incorrectly I hope McDermott doesn't make this squad we never want to get to him.

 

[Wozzy]

I must have read that incorrectly I hope McDermott doesn't make this squad we never want to get to him.

He'd be a nice player to have on the practice squad.