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OT Bears Trade #1 Pick

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Well some people speculated a trade up for Mac Jones in his draft (supposedly 49ers Shanaham trying to make a Matt Ryan 2.0), Justin Fields was considered the #2 pick for months.

In the end they got drafted at #9 and #15

This happens. GMs and scouts change their vision and sometimes the momentum changes from a pick to another in the coming days of the draft.

This for me is a draft that you sit there and wait, maybe the player will slid to you just like it happened above, maybe do a trade on draft day to make sure.

I liked a few things I saw from Bryce Young in Bama, but not enough to sell the farm, and there's the height issue. CJ Strouder for the Colts at #4 makes a lot of sense but now who knows if he is the guy Carolina wants. Some rumors already floating around that if the Colts or Texans are locked in a guy, the Panthers could really trade the trade. I think it's stupid but who knows.
 
If Fields ends up sucking, and the guy Carolina takes (Howard or Stroud) ends up a lot better, then the Bears lose out big time. It's a risky move for Chicago since Justin Fields is no sure thing.
May be betraying my ignorance here, but who is 'Howard'?
 
I think you make some important points.

All "#1 picks" are not created equal. IMO the Panthers owner is just being impatient and over-paid for the privilege of picking #1 in a bad draft class.

Some QBs take longer to develop. We could see Fields turn it around and become a good QB. This happened for Allen in BUF and Hurts in PHL.

Either way, CHI has a lot of ways for the trade to pay off, CAR must hit on the #1 for it to pay off, and history shows that isn't as easy to do as many suggest.

Many times the best player selected in the first round of a given draft class is NOT the #1 pick.

CAR traded a lot of assets just to make a pick that very well may turn out to be a bust.
This is why the NFL doesn't need a draft lottery. The #1 overall pick just isn't that big of a deal. That's why I think Chicago got a steal by trading down.

If you go back 30 years all the way to Drew Bledsoe, only 5 #1 overall picks won a Super Bowl with the team that drafted him. Bledsoe, of course, is 1 of the 5 but we all know his story. 2 of them were offensive linemen: Orlando Pace (Rams) and Eric Fisher (Chiefs). The other 2 are the Brothers Manning. Drafting #1 isn't exactly a surefire path to the Super Bowl.
 
That's like a compensation to give up to get a elite QB like Mahomes/Burrow/Allen not a rookie lol
You'd need at least 5 times that compensation to get one of those three.
 
If Fields ends up sucking, and the guy Carolina takes (Howard or Stroud) ends up a lot better, then the Bears lose out big time. It's a risky move for Chicago since Justin Fields is no sure thing.
Yes, although that's one of the least likely scenarios.
 
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