Does Belichick Last Beyond 2023, and What Needs to Happen?

[RobertWeathers]

My point was how can anybody make that assumption? They’ve crumbled late in the season for 4 years now. It’s more than a trend, it might be who they are

It is. No question.

What the reason is is clear. Once they play better teams and tougher games, they lose. Why? Talent and coaching.

 

[TomPatriot]

It is. No question.

What the reason is is clear. Once they play better teams and tougher games, they lose. Why? Talent and coaching.

Talent is getting better. Coaching isn’t.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Talent is getting better. Coaching isn’t.

Which is totally and completely unacceptable

 

[Ring 6]

And you telling everyone how bad they’ve made this site and whining about anyone who doesn’t agree with you makes this site more enjoyable?

That’s for you to decide. If it makes it unenjoyable for you then you may leave also.

 

[TomPatriot]

That's everyone's worst nightmare...

If that is his path forward, he should be relieved of his duties now.

As a fan, I also couldn’t care less about breaking Shula’s record.

 

[TomPatriot]

My “sabbatical” wasn’t wasted at all. It was thoroughly enjoy able to not deal with the disaster this place has become because of posters like you. My return was triggered by the prospect of the changes Ian is going to make that will mitigate the damage people like you do to this site. But thanks for your concern.

To say this site is a disaster is ridiculous.

 

[TomPatriot]

Matt Patricia is not throwing 3 INTs in Buffalo.

Matt Patricia called a play that had Devante Parker down the seam for a walk in TD. The ball was underthrown. Parker had to slow down and look back for the ball that hit him in the helmet. Again, the same way the ball was underthrown to Parker in the 1st game of the season @ Miami. Another deep ball for a TD that ran out of gas and was INTed.

I have my problems with Mac but he isn’t the reason the Pats lost. White’s pick was because Agholor didn’t fight for the ball (Shocking!). The Parker pass wasn’t perfect but it was the kind of ball Parker catches. The Howard int in the first Miami game was Patricia trying to go after one of the best corners in the league.

 

[Ring 6]

To say this site is a disaster is ridiculous.

Ok, I will rephrase. Many of the posters that dominate the conversation here are a disaster. Better?

 

[40yrpatsfan]

They ended 2-4 and missed the playoffs because of it. It doesn't matter how or why. They needed 1 more dub, didn't get it.

In previous recent years, they did play poorly down the stretch, including Brady's last year here. This year they played well enough to win but just didn't, largely due to a rash of bad officiating but also due to special teams blunders. Cinci and Buffalo are maybe the 2 best teams in the NFL, and we played both of them even, both games were right in our grasp. That's nothing like we finished last year or any recent year.

 

[TomPatriot]

Ok, I will rephrase. Many of the posters that dominate the conversation here are a disaster. Better?

There are always going to be posters you or I don’t like or who challenge our experience here.

 

[All3Phases]

It is. No question.

What the reason is is clear. Once they play better teams and tougher games, they lose. Why? Talent and coaching.

Agree, at least talent at specific positions. I think overall, the team is pretty good talent wise. Not the upper echelon of the league, but certainly not as bad as they make it look

 

[40yrpatsfan]

That wasn't my point. I'm honestly not impressed with anything Bill has done, including 2019 when Tom was here. Something is off besides the QB. It's just weird.

If it were that easy to stay on top for 20+ years, more teams would do it, don't you think? Other teams hire away your coaches and executives, players leave, you pick in the 25-32 range every year, you have a commissioner stealing your draft choices every few years, you miss on a couple of draft classes, and eventually it all translates to a few years of .500 ball - directly after appearing in 4 of the past 5 SB's and winning 3.

I'm fine with that, but I guess you're not.

 

[Triumph]

I have my problems with Mac but he isn’t the reason the Pats lost. White’s pick was because Agholor didn’t fight for the ball (Shocking!).

Why not throw the ball back shoulder so only Agahlor can catch it or it goes out of bounds?

We see the same careless throws over and over. 11 INTs on the season and 2 more called back (13) are because of 1 person named Corky Mac Jones.

The Parker pass wasn’t perfect but it was the kind of ball Parker catches.

The ball hit Parker on the top of his helmet after he slowed down. The DB was in the play now where if the ball was thrown by a QB with a stronger arm, Parker does not break stride and scores. Would you have blamed Parker too if the Buffalo DB came down with the ball?

The Howard int in the first Miami game was Patricia trying to go after one of the best corners in the league.

Parker had him beat for a TD, but the ball lost speed to land in front of Parker so Howard had no play other than PI.

Did Brady run scared and hide from Revis? To be the best you beat the best in the NFL game. If you have the ability.

 

[All3Phases]

The offense was the same. There were some changes, just like every year. The problems were the OL and the indecision of the QB.

it’s probably time to give this up after watching during your break. The offense was a joke

 

[40yrpatsfan]

"What changed," you ask? Matt Patricia/Joe Judge playing Keystone Kops with the offense is what changed.

Do you honestly think because Hunter Henry said "it's the same playbook" that it REALLY was the same offensive system in 2022 that existed under Josh McDaniels? It wasn't. "Same playbook" means nothing. Perhaps they brought forward "plays" from "the playbook," but blocking schemes were different, terminology changed, play calling suffered, formations went haywire, LOS blocking protection/receiver route/play audibles were limited severely in 2022, passing game timing and receiver route spacing became problematic -- all with essentially the same offensive personnel as 2021.

The below 2022 offensive rankings are pathetic compared to 2021. The Patriots had 31 offensive touchdowns this season (19 passing/12 rushing) vs. 48 offensive touchdowns in 2021 (24 passing/24 rushing). That is a difference of SEVENTEEN TOUCHDOWNS, or one per game!

The Patriots offense ranked sixth in 2021, 17th in 2022. Total offensive yards dropped from 6,008 in 2021 to 5,348 in 2022. Offensive penalties increased from 95 in 2021 to 104 in 2022. First downs dropped from 326 in 2021 to 264 in 2022. On down the line, in every category, the offense took a huge step back under an offensive coordinator with no prior experience running an offense and a quarterbacks coach with no experience in that role.

Only the blind and willingly ignorant would try pinning the Patriots' 2022 offensive regression chiefly on player personnel.

Here's where Patriots ranked in every offensive category in 2022 in the NFL

Here's a look at where the Patriots ranked in just about every offensive category you can use to assess the potency or lack thereof from an offense.

www.cbsnews.com

The overall scoring rank looks fine, but that number was boosted in a major way by eight non-offensive touchdowns (five INT returns, two fumble returns, one punt return). Those eight non-offensive touchdowns accounted for more than 20 percent of the team's overall touchdowns. In terms of offensive touchdowns, they ranked in the bottom five of the league.

That is what changed. What NEEDS to change going forward and for BB to lengthen his tenure is, for starters, a total revamping of the offensive coaching staff plus a new special teams coordinator. And it better happen soon.

Those metrics are all concerning and need to turn around next season. I think it partly had to do with the changes to the playbook and terminology in pre-season, which was supposedly to simplify things with Josh departing. That in combination with new offensive coaches was probably too much change for 1 year.

Our offensive injury luck was also bad throughout the year. Mac missed a month. Parker missed 6 games. Thornton missed a month. Jakobi missed 3+ games. Damien missed a month. Johnnu missed 6 games. Andrews missed a month. Wynn missed most of the season, and RT was a nightmare most of the season.

 

[venecol]

 

[h0c2000]

I know people would like to discuss this, so given that Bill has already said he's coming back for the 2023 season, and it would be pretty surprising to see Kraft move on from him - barring a refusal to make changes - what do you think needs to happen for him to last beyond this season?

If they don't get a post season win, he needs to go. At the same time, does RKK care more about celebrating a phony most combined wins record in 3 years or winning playoff games? I don't know nor care. For me, Bill's time has passed. He should be gone now.

And do you think he can make enough moves this offseason to make them competitive enough to be a factor next January?

No, 6-11, 7-10 is about where I put them right now for 2023.

1. The coaching staff is one of the smallest most in-bred in the NFL. He'll be 71 and is the GM. Why not spread the work to qualified individuals or is getting 20M more important to him? Time to close up shop at Belichick and Sons at Patriots Place.
2. 
   
3. MattyP is coaching the OL and calling the plays. The OL was not great this year. Some good and some bad but inconsistent overall. His play calling was crap. Wonder why a former college center liked running on first down so much?
   
   
4. At least Joe Judge was an SEC QB, sure he was a place holder but he was in the QB room. I’m not ready to say Mac’s not the guy. Mac’s lack of progress though is concerning.
5. 
   
6. I believe he still thinks he can win with a skewing of the attention and financial resources to the defense and special teams. This is fine and dandy when you have an elite QB playing at a salary discount.
7. 
   
8. He doesn’t have someone who can challenge him on the staff. Any blind spots are not discovered until it’s too late. Even if he and Ernie spoke about MattyP as the OC, they might have agreed that it wouldn’t be bad.
9. 
   
10. His offensive skill position (TE, WR and QB) acquisitions for the last 10+ years have been below average at best. I think he’s a bad evaluator of that talent and he believes those positions are not valuable.
11. 
    
12. He mismanaged the single most important position in 2020 and 2022. He had no plan for 2020 to replace the QB. Maybe his evaluation said the QB was done or the team couldn’t afford that QB any longer. F- for either or both of those decisions. This also happened while being 27th in cash outlay the last 3 seasons. Hmmm…. Then he decides let’s put 2 bozos in place to help Mac grow. What about Cam Newton? LOL and I like Cam the celebrity. But as a QB in 2020?
13. 
    
14. The “Patriots Way” doesn’t look so good these last 3 seasons. I wonder what Bourne might tell Hopkins if asked about coming here.

I would never have guessed that Bill hit the cliff before TB12. Yet, here we are in 2022.

Bill won’t resign and geriatric RKK won’t fire him. A 55 year old RKK might have reacted differently to the 81 year old version. So, I guess none of this matters.

 

[upstater1]

We pressured the F out Allen and he just burnt us. Same with Cousins and Burrow. Mahomes would do the same. Higgins was bullying Marcus. Need at least 6'1" CB. Jamael Dean is available in FAcy.

You can live with 2 TDs like that against a high powered offense. Those were 2 perfect throws, one of them a ridiculous catch.

But I should also point out that 2 of our CBs were hurt and Myles Bryant does not figure into my calculations.

 

[upstater1]

The coaching staff is one of the smallest most in-bred in the NFL. He'll be 71 and is the GM. Why not spread the work to qualified individuals or is getting 20M more important to him? Time to close up shop at Belichick and Sons at Patriots Place.

I don't know why people keep saying this.

The staff is big. They have 20 coaches on staff: HC, OC, Ass't OL, WR/KR (Troy Brown), TE, QB, RB, passing game coordinator (Rothstein), Offensive ass't (Hughes), Ass't RB, DC, LB, DL, S, CB, Ass't Defense, ST, Ass't ST, S&C, Ass't S&C

The staff is huge.

And if Belichick's salary is what prevents them from hiring coaches of choice, that's not a Belichick problem. That's a Bob Kraft problem.

 

[Guts]

I said it after the 2020 season that you need at least 3 years to properly evaluate a team(and a 1st round QB) after their HOF QB retires or leaves to a different team. We are heading to year 3 and the concerning part is the regression from 2021. We lost games this year we had no business losing and the way we lost was Jets like(Raiders game/ Cincy game).

There's no clutchness or mental toughness from years past. We need a totally different offensive staff because the offense stinked. On a positive note there's good enough talent to work with that it is possible to turn this around considering all the cap space we will have as well.

Crucial that we make it to the divisional round at the minimum next year.