okay a trade, maybe, but he was priced to have this second year to show something if need be. if someone wants to relieve some of the spend on him, and we're sure he straight sucks, well okay. I don't know how to really figure out what they "mean" by their contracts, but they're very on the hook w Agholor. Err on the side of panning out, I think.
Nelson Agholor contract and salary cap details, including signing bonus, guaranteed salary, dead money, roster bonuses, and contract history
overthecap.com
We save the almost 5M we haven't spent this year if he goes away. (We have spent the 5M in prorated bonus and additionally owe 5M to pay for him not to play.) But I am definitely rethinking my sunk cost fallacy on agholor . We do get back 5M. Forget about whats already spent, and getting back 5M is getting back 5M.
By comparison, if we get rid of Meyers (860 some yards), there's no dead money but that doesn't get us anything, and going forward we would only get back $4M, where we'd get $5m back with Agholor. So we'd be ditching the better player to get back less. Also you have to get 860 yards out of a binkie to be "right" with Meyer, where it's 473 for Agholor.
First choice, Agholor wins in camp b/c he is uncoverable and running great routes and breaking ankles in the secondary and stuff... or at least looks like a lock for another 500 or so yds and a good bet for 700-800. But if we've got
no confidence in him, okay, we trade him. But we better be damn sure of whoever's up next. With the binkies, that means getting evidence in camp. Guys like Lil'Jordan are there to look at and probably get rid of.
1. So
If Agholor looks good, like he'll go north of 700 or 800 yards like pre-NE, with a handful of TDs...
2. Assume the sunk cost has no effect...
3.
Agholor's got a spot. But you guys are right, and we think that <500 yards is just who Agholor is in NE,... that's inviting us to take the hit and let him go. Onus is on him.
So question one is whether we think 2021 predicts 2022 for NA
4. Thornton's cheap. as are the other binkies -- what do they have to show to make us think they are a lock to replace Agholor production? If they have to be able to plug-and-play for 500 yards, a quick look tells us that something like 90 guys get that every year. That's gettinng uncomfortably close to "all of them." If they have to get us 800 yards, the seeming "decent receiver" level in NE, that's something 44 guys in the league can do.
Are we sure on the strength of a good minicamp that Nixon is in that club? Are we sure on the strength of that one game against Jax that Wilkerson brings that? Are we sure on the strength of great drills and 40 time that Thornton has that?
4b. All these guys have upside because they're unknown, so there's that, None of our top guys is Cooper "2 girls 1" Kupp, and since we don't know their ceilings, the new guys "just might be". We virtually
can't tell Thornton to go away before we have a look, They're alll cheap, all they cost is roster space. That's one more reason Thornton's ST ability makes him a keeper.
This is where the 2 new faces come in - they're the only real potential improvements. Thornton and 1 other. The other guys are known-ish quantities.
5. DeVante makes real-ish money at $6M/year... that's too much to not even watch him in a game. He gets a spot.
6. Bourne got us 800 yards last year and did it on the cheap-ish.
7. Meyers brought 866 yards and he carries no dead cap. So he costs $4m and performs well. I don't know what I was smoking looking at him from a dead cap perspective (0 dead cap, but who cares. He's good.)
Agholor, Bourne, Parker, and Meyers,
I think, are in. You don't draft a guy highish, like TyThorn, and not at least look at him, so that's not even on the table.
If these things are true (and we're going with 6) that is 1 spot for Tre nixon, Kristin Wilkerson, Lil'Orphan Humphries, and whoever else. It seems like Kristian W and Tre Nixon are fighting for that last spot, unless someone has a terrible camp, someone brings great trade value, or I'm just wrong and we're shopping Agholor as we speak, because unknown to me we hate him, he hates us, more accurately he's "not getting it" or "it's not a good fit for him." etc. I think he just had a sub 500 yard season and that can change, and his deal is priced to keep us looking at the glass half full.
However, what's spent is spent. If you forget whats gone before, it's a question of whether you want a roster spot and 5m back off the books by ditching him, or if you want what NA can bring and dont mind spending the remaining 5M to get it.
sorry for the long post!