DRAFT Patriots select WR Tyquan Thornton at 50.

[upstater1]

How is it reasonable to equate post facto consensus with pre-draft consensus?

My thesis is now that the only NFL teams management that care about the public draft consensus are the ones worried about losing their jobs.

My opinion is that public draft consensus is another form of fantasy football: a fun entertaining alternative way of scoring football activity not particularly relevant to actual football teams.

I was responding to a post saying that the Patriots drafts underwhelm because Belichick perennially reaches for players. The whole point of my post was to show all the players that Belichick chose who were taken before the consensus predicted.

 

[Sciz]

No way in hell they exercise that 5th year option for Harry

Well yes, because the deadline was 3 hours ago. There were reports about some options getting declined, but I don’t think that happened for Harry. They just let the deadline pass without anybody reporting anything.

 

[nextsuperstar]

The Patriots have been accused of reaching for the following players:

Richard Seymour, Matt Light, Daniel Graham, Deion Branch, Eugene Wilson, Logan Mankins, Matt Cassel, Steve Gostkowski, Sebastian Vollmer, Patrick Chung, Devin McCourty, Shane Vereen, Chandler Jones, Jamie Collins, Logan Ryan, Duron Harmon, James White, Kyle Dugger.

Don't get me wrong: you'll find just as many reaches who busted and failed. But it's clear Belichick has his own values, and all of the above players were much lower when you look at the consensus. Admittedly, Cole Strange seems to have broken the record when it comes to first rounders. I can't recall someone rated so lowly. I think the next lowest first rounder would have to be either Logan Mankins, Chandler Jones or Devin McCourty. All 3 of these players were slotted about 10-20 picks back from where they were selected. Strange is more like 30-40 picks back.

McCourty was definitely thought of poorly by some, but a lot people loved that draft.


“Wolf offers the most succinct analysis of the Patriots draft: "Does there really need to be any analysis of these picks? Bill Belichick is a draft master. Period."”

2010 NFL Draft Report Card Report

Our seventh annual report card on draft report cards examines NFL pundits to see which teams did best, which teams did worst, and which teams caused the most polarization across the Internet.

www.footballoutsiders.com

Remember those days?

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

I am guessing that when the Patriots traded up in the 2nd round you were hoping for Travis Jones????

You know me well

 

[Uptown]

 

[DaBruinz]

My biggest concern on Thorton is his glacially SLOW 3 cone time. 7.2 is slower than our QB. its slower than a 350lb NT. So add the micromini hands, the rail thin physic, the injuries, and the fact he was a day 3 pick on many board AND we felt we had the need to trade UP to get him and I'm not worried a bit about this pick.

Your first mistake is thinking that the "Many boards" you were looking at have any resemblance to NFL teams. It's already been established (yet again) that they don't.

Next, not sure what NT you're referring to, but that 7.25 was faster than Travis Jones and Jordan Davis didn't run it. Thornton's 7.25 is better than Vince Wilforks 7.62. Also, there was a lot of complaints about how the NFL CHANGED the Shuttle and 3 cone at the combine.

Thornton's hands are 8 1/4". But he's got a drop rate of a whopping 3.1%. That's better than Burks, Watson and a host of others. Pickens had 8 3/4" hands. Phillips 8 5/8". Tre Turner 8 1/2. Josh Johnson 8 5/8.

Thornton missed 3 games in 2020 and part of a 4th. Whoopdee do.. You're making sound like the kid had injuries every year and didn't produce anything.

No offense, Ken, but whatever sources you're using for the draft you need to improve on them.

 

[DaBruinz]

I hear you, but consider DK Metcalf's slow times in shuttle or whatever the hell he had that was worse than Tom Brady's times and how he was far from a layup pick that is presented now. In no way is this kid DK Metcalf, but he's got world class speed, and that always comes off the board earlier than the talking heads talk about. He is skinny, to be sure. That's a concern. I don't care about the small hands. Someone else posted that his hands at bigger than Tyreek Hill's. Would we rather have a 6'4" Moss clone with baseball glove hands? Sure. I think he will be fine. He won't a HoF'er, but he will be a serviceable wideout for the Pats.

Just for comparison of the Shuttle and 3 cone.

 

[DaBruinz]

He hasn't played 1 snap

He was referring to Harry..

 

[JMC00]

I know this might cause **** but have any of you considered Thornton is coming into a team QB'd by Mac Jones and not Tom Brady. Mac isn't the type to death stare a rookie WR and freeze them out and never look their way.

 

[DaBruinz]

Thornton seems natural getting off the line, accelerates and cuts well, and has a lot of room to go being 20 years old. If you want high upside and speed, that is what we now have. The same coaches that picked Stevenson picked Thornton and Strong. We will see but I think there is a new draft sheriff in town and I like what he is doing.

Thornton turns 22 in August. Born 8/7/2000

 

[DaBruinz]

Really? Jakobi was a UDFA who was just developing. During a year in which 4 OL were hurt and Marshall Newhouse was the LT. Meyers and Brady barely even saw the field together.

Meyers saw 416 offensive snaps in 2019. That was 36.21% of the offensive snaps.

Brady and Meyers saw plenty of one another that year.

 

[JMC00]

 

[DaBruinz]

As far as Thornton, I don't know how the draftniks overlooked this guy. 4.28, 6'2", proven production, obvious WR skills. No way in the world this guy gets past the 2nd round.

It's not that they overlooked Thornton. They downgraded him significantly because of his thin build. The problem is they've called him "frail" and he's not. He missed 3 games and a bit of a 4th in the Covid shortened season. They downgraded him because of his hands/wrists but didn't look at his drop rate (3.1%). If he works with a martial arts specialist on how to fall and take hits the way Brady did, then I don't foresee injury issues for him because of his frame.

 

[JMC00]

 

[DaBruinz]

Nah, Mankins was identical. Everyone screamed what a horrible reach it was to take him at 32 and then it turned out someone else was going to take him just a pick or two later.

Keep in mind that part of the 'consensus' thing is disinformation to try and keep people away from the players you actually want.

Patriots picked Mankins at 32. The story goes that Mankins was actually on the phone with the 49ers who told him they were taking him at 33 when the Patriots called in. He told the 49ers he had to take it since it was the Patriots.. This all came out in the days/weeks/months after the selection.., But not before the "Know-more-than-Belichick" crowd had crucified BB for taking Mankins when they did.

I mentioned this almost immediately in the threads but received the same sort of backlash.. I was even told that they weren't' similar because of the schools they went to.. Mankins went to "powerhouse of the WAC" Fresno St while Strange went to lowly UT-Chat.. *shrug*

 

[DaBruinz]

I'm not talking about where someone else would take him. I'm talking about the consensus ratings.

For instance: Top 10 Belichick-Era Patriots Draft Successes: #8 Logan Mankins

But.. But.. But.. I got told that the "Mankins reach" wasn't the same as Strange.. ..

 

[JMC00]

Patriots picked Mankins at 32. The story goes that Mankins was actually on the phone with the 49ers who told him they were taking him at 33 when the Patriots called in. He told the 49ers he had to take it since it was the Patriots.. This all came out in the days/weeks/months after the selection.., But not before the "Know-more-than-Belichick" crowd had crucified BB for taking Mankins when they did.

I mentioned this almost immediately in the threads but received the same sort of backlash.. I was even told that they weren't' similar because of the schools they went to.. Mankins went to "powerhouse of the WAC" Fresno St while Strange went to lowly UT-Chat.. *shrug*

The funniest thing is 49ers came out and said they had Strange as a 1st round talent..

 

[DaBruinz]

How is it reasonable to equate post facto consensus with pre-draft consensus?

It wasn't "post facto consensus". The Pre-draft Consensus was that Mankins was a late 2nd/early 3rd round pick. That the Pats REACHED to take him.. In an almost identical way that the Pats "reached" to take Strange.

It's also since come out that at least 3 other teams (Ten/SF/TB) had a 1st round grade on Strange.

Senior Bowl Advisor, Jim Nagy, also stated that most of the teams he'd talked to had at least a 2nd round grade on Strange. Nagy also took a shot at the "Draftnicks" saying that they don't really understand what the teams are seeing..

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Patriots picked Mankins at 32. The story goes that Mankins was actually on the phone with the 49ers who told him they were taking him at 33 when the Patriots called in. He told the 49ers he had to take it since it was the Patriots.. This all came out in the days/weeks/months after the selection.., But not before the "Know-more-than-Belichick" crowd had crucified BB for taking Mankins when they did.

I mentioned this almost immediately in the threads but received the same sort of backlash.. I was even told that they weren't' similar because of the schools they went to.. Mankins went to "powerhouse of the WAC" Fresno St while Strange went to lowly UT-Chat.. *shrug*

And if you look at the picks in the 2nd round in that draft they were all busts. So the Pats made the right decision.

 

[DaBruinz]

The funniest thing is 49ers came out and said they had Strange as a 1st round talent..

I've had at least one person on here claim that it was BS and just Kyle Shanahan sticking up for his buddy Belichick. Had another on here claim that he didn't believe that there were 4 teams that had a 1st round grade on Strange and demanded the "sources" for the information.