The 2 Year Rebuild Of The Offense

[PowerRunRevival]

The way people describe the offense last year and the need for improvement this season you would think that the Pats were a bottom tier offense. The Pats finished 9th in DVOA for offense last year.

Do people expect the offense to regress? I see a lot of comments on threads about how the offense won’t be good enough to make the playoffs. It was last year and I’d think it’s likely they improve with a bunch of the newcomers getting more familiarity with the system and Mac continuing to develop.

I know a lot of big moves this offseason make people think the Pats will be passed by other teams, but every experienced Pats fan should know that execution during the season means more than splashy offseason moves. Sports fans often act like they are sure how a season will unfold based on offseason moves when really week to week improvement is more important that the quality of a team in week one.

 

[Ring 6]

I have a bad feeling NelsonA will be on the team....

Seem's like no FA wants to sign with Patriots. NOT ATTRACTIVE.

Bills are getting stronger.

Phins as well.

Imagine how good the top 10 offense of 2021 will become if we bring back all the sand players and the QB advancing from rookie to 2nd year player expands his game to make the players largely left out of the scheme (Agholor, Smith) more frequent targets and more heavily involved.

 

[PScottman]

double dip early in this draft for WR talent.

Holes across a wide range of positions which were exposed as actual season killers such as the DL and LB at the end of last year and still a ton of laser focus on using not just one, but two early picks on a single position that did not play a major role in the end last year's campaign (and as Andy pointed out were not the performance dumpster fire everyone continues to proclaim).

How did the WRs contribute to the defense not forcing one punt in two games against the Bills?

I'm not saying the WRs dont need an upgrade. If there's a guy that falls or is high rated in the draft versus the other positions when the Pats select - no issue taking one. Same with a free agent trade as has been rumored. But the use of two picks? At what impact to the the rest of the team?

From the DL run defense to the second level LBs both run and pass - not to mention now a hole at G (or T if the Wynn sucks meme plays out in moving him to G) - to a #1 CB with Jackson gone...I just cant see using 1/3d of the total picks the Patriots have this year on one position.

 

[aluminum seats]

Then there's Harry....who still can win 50/50 balls

If Harry takes up a roster spot next year I’m gonna start breaking things

 

[TheRainMaker]

WR's need an upgrade! Mac cannot have Myers as his #1 guy. That is tragic. Bourne is a #3 playing as a #2. Agholor shows up when he feels like it.

The defense clearly can't control every game, so you need an offense to adapt if their script goes off course. The two Bills games are the best examples they were dead to rights when the Bills got a lead.

 

[mgteich]

Imagine how good the top 10 offense of 2021 will become if we bring back all the sand players and the QB advancing from rookie to 2nd year player expands his game to make the players largely left out of the scheme (Agholor, Smith) more frequent targets and more heavily involved.

Folks have their own reality.

We had a top 10 offense that has had a year of working together. Maybe White helps; maybe not. But I don't understand how the offense could be worse.

Would I like to have one of the $20M-$25M WR's playing for us for $10M or $25M? Sure!

Would I like a VET minimum player as a replacement for Harry? Sure!

But those statements are about even MORE improvement from a top 10 offense.

WR's need an upgrade! Mac cannot have Myers as his #1 guy. That is tragic. Bourne is a #3 playing as a #2. Agholor shows up when he feels like it.

The defense clearly can't control every game, so you need an offense to adapt if their script goes off course. The two Bills games are the best examples they were dead to rights when the Bills got a lead.

Let me translate.

You think that signing a $20M to $25M WR (instead of using the cap room for other players) will make us competitive with Buffalo.

 

[mgteich]

If Harry takes up a roster spot next year I’m gonna start breaking things

Harry actually was helpful in several games.

I certainly hope that we can upgrade that position. My GUESS is that Wilkerson would be inactive in every game. while Harry might be active in certain games.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Folks have their own reality.

We had a top 10 offense that has had a year of working together. Maybe White helps; maybe not. But I don't understand how the offense could be worse.

Would I like to have one of the $20M-$25M WR's playing for us for $10M or $25M? Sure!

Would I like a VET minimum player as a replacement for Harry? Sure!

But those statements are about even MORE improvement from a top 10 offense.

Let me translate.

You think that signing a $20M to $25M WR (instead of using the cap room for other players) will make us competitive with Buffalo.

No, find better players via the draft.

 

[mgteich]

No, find better players via the draft.

I apolgize.

Let the patriots find a #1 WR in the draft. Now there's something that's likely!

 

[TheRainMaker]

I apolgize.

Let the patriots find a #1 WR in the draft. Now there's something that's likely!

They better try.

 

[RIpats88]

They better try.

They are meeting with alot of receiver prospects. So I hope so. In this market where elite receivers are making $20-$30 million you almost need to get one in the draft.

I hope they go WR and CB in the draft. Maybe get an Alabama guy Mac played with

 

[TheRainMaker]

They are meeting with alot of receiver prospects. So I hope so. In this market where elite receivers are making $20-$30 million you almost need to get one in the draft.

I hope they go WR and CB in the draft. Maybe get an Alabama guy Mac played with

WR, front 7 and CB are my top 3 needs in no order.

I'd like to see a Metchie reunion. He was a big time prospect before his injury.

 

[Hyped]

They better try.

A list:

Year	Rnd	Player	Pos	College/Univ
2021	7	Tre Nixon	WR	Central Florida
2019	1	N'Keal Harry	WR	Arizona St.
2018	6	Braxton Berrios	WR	Miami (FL)
2016	4	Malcolm Mitchell	WR	Georgia
2016	7	Devin Lucien	WR	Arizona St.
2014	7	Jeremy Gallon	WR	Michigan
2013	2	Aaron Dobson	WR	Marshall
2013	4	Josh Boyce	WR	TCU
2012	7	Jeremy Ebert	WR	Northwestern
2010	3	Taylor Price	WR	Ohio
2009	3	Brandon Tate	WR	North Carolina
2009	7	Julian Edelman	WR	Kent St.
2008	5	Matthew Slater	WR	UCLA
2006	2	Chad Jackson	WR	Florida
2004	5	P.K. Sam	WR	Florida St.
2003	2	Bethel Johnson	WR	Texas A&M
2002	2	Deion Branch	WR	Louisville
2002	7	David Givens	WR	Notre Dame

 

[Triumph]

The shady contractor took the money and never came back on the WR rebuild.

 

[Sam Bam Cunningham]

I don’t the comments about last years free agency acquisitions under performing very interesting.
Aside from Free Agent signings, our offense had
A rookie QB, the FIFTH chosen among rookies.
Jakobi Meyers, NKeal Harry and absolutely no other receivers or TEs
A LT, RG and no LG,C,RG
A RB and a 3rd down back that would essentially miss the year.

Free agency was the only means to turn that mess into anything

We ended up with the #6 scoring offense
An offense that scored on the 2nd highest % of possessions
10th best in 3rd down conversions
11th best in red zone (and much better after the rookies first few games)
Above average in yards and passing yards
A winning record and a playoff berth


It is ludicrous to look at the team without free agency and then the results and say free agency was a failure. Aside from free agency you have the worst offense in the NFL and a rookie QB. After free agency you had a top 10 or better offense, and one of the most productive ever with a rookie QB.

Anyone paying attention knows that the offense was run in 2021 as a rookie QB offense, keeping constraints on the QB, coaching him to limit risks, keeping him a comfort zone as much as possible. The fact that some pieces of the offense and done aspects of the passing game didn’t click, first, doesn’t take away from the overall results and second, is something that should be a big opportunity for improvement in year 2.

Right now we bring back almost the same offense (onwenu for Mason is not a big downgrade) except for LG, but have added White back if he stays healthy.
The growth of the offense in 2022 will be the growth of the group that far exceeded expectations in the first year. Incorporating the pieces that were left behind a little by the QB maturation plan is clearly the big opportunity.

Have a look at the offense in Decemmber and in the playoff game. When it really mattered they were a below average offense.

 

[Ring 6]

Have a look at the offense in Decemmber and in the playoff game. When it really mattered they were a below average offense.

Eh, they were pretty similar then as the season outside of a bad game vs Buffalo. It was the defense that faltered.
But in any event given where they were without free agency it’s ridiculous to not call free agency a success.

 

[ivanvamp]

The running game will be fantastic next year. Why do I think that? Because it was fantastic this year and the key guys making that happen are back. There's no reason to think they won't be a highly effective running team.

They should also be a good short passing team. Adding White is huge. He's just really good.

It's the medium and deep passing that could be problematic. So can they be a good overall offense with a good running game and short passing game? Yes. IF they are decent in the other phases of the passing game. They don't have to be great at the medium and deep passes. They just have to be decent, and this offense on the whole will be pretty solid.

My bigger concern is the defense. They were excellent all season long until the very end when they absolutely folded like a cheap tent. Utterly disastrous game to end the season, and they've lost a bunch of guys since then, including JC Jackson, one of the best CBs in the sport. I don't see tons of reason to think that the defense will be better in 2022 than it was in 2021, though obviously I don't expect them to play like they did in the playoff game vs Buffalo, which was a once in a lifetime catastrophe that we shouldn't see again from ANYONE in the NFL.

 

[TheRainMaker]

A list:

Year	Rnd	Player	Pos	College/Univ
2021	7	Tre Nixon	WR	Central Florida
2019	1	N'Keal Harry	WR	Arizona St.
2018	6	Braxton Berrios	WR	Miami (FL)
2016	4	Malcolm Mitchell	WR	Georgia
2016	7	Devin Lucien	WR	Arizona St.
2014	7	Jeremy Gallon	WR	Michigan
2013	2	Aaron Dobson	WR	Marshall
2013	4	Josh Boyce	WR	TCU
2012	7	Jeremy Ebert	WR	Northwestern
2010	3	Taylor Price	WR	Ohio
2009	3	Brandon Tate	WR	North Carolina
2009	7	Julian Edelman	WR	Kent St.
2008	5	Matthew Slater	WR	UCLA
2006	2	Chad Jackson	WR	Florida
2004	5	P.K. Sam	WR	Florida St.
2003	2	Bethel Johnson	WR	Texas A&M
2002	2	Deion Branch	WR	Louisville
2002	7	David Givens	WR	Notre Dame

Thanks for the list.

Let's break this down.

If my math is correct, the average round they drafted a WR in 17 years they took a WR was almost the 5th round. Yikes!

Now break it down by frequency in each round:
One 1st rounder
Four 2nd rounders
Two 3rd rounders
Two 4th rounders
Two 5th rounders
One 6th rounder
Six 7th rounders

4 times in 21 years they took multiple WR's.

Only 18 WR's in 21 years averages out to not even drafting one WR per year.

Now how many of those worked out:

Givens
Branch
Edelman
Malcolm Mitchell is debatable.

Let's call it 3 or 4 out of 18.

Only one 1,000 yard WR (Edelman)
Two Super Bowl MVP's (Branch and Edelman)
No Pro Bowlers or All Pro's

 

[BobDigital]

This is going to be an unpopular and down voted post. But at least I'm be consistent with what I've always preached.

I really am finding the general narrative and conversation on this board starting to be reminiscent of fan boards from teams that the Pats crushed time and time again only a few years ago when we were one of the top dogs. There seems to be this massive dissonance between what is takes to contend in the current NFL and exactly where we are.

So let me be 100% clear on where the Pats offense is. The answer is.... not. even. close. Meyers, Bourne, Agholor, Henry, Smith Harris and White Are we being serious right now? None of these guys are a #1 or even #2 option on a legit championship offense these days. And the days of trying to cobble together a bunch of #3 weapons and playing small ball offense to squeak out back to back to back low scoring victories in the playoffs are over.

The only reason it worked for us in the past is because we had the greatest QB of all time to elevate the guys around him. Mac Jones will not be doing that. Even if he turns out to be great, he won't be that level of great (not to mention whenever Gronk was healthy he was legit, and Edelman is the best WR the pats drafted during the entire Brady window). Last year in some ways lured the Pats and patsfans into a false sense of security. We somehow managed to have the 6th best PPG offense in the NFL. But lets be honest. It wasn't a good offense. In 3 blow out wins they scored 149 points. In the other 14? They were average at best. There was a huge amount of inconsistency in this offense last year, and I wouldn't expect those huge blow out wins to happen like they did last year. Maybe one... but three was, i believe, a statistical irregularity where they just happened to face 3 teams that came out completely flat, where most years you get maybe 1.

They ended up 15th in YPG, and that's probably more where they belonged offensively speaking. And a lot of that was due to their defense helping a often struggling offense score points. We managed to go 10-7, but when the games really counted, we got shown our place in the WC round with a quick and decisive exit by a real contender in Buffalo.

I don't mean to come down too hard on our team, or the fans hopes for it. But we need to be realistic. We need great players on this offense. And A RB like Harris being our best player is a serious problem. Without top offensive PASSING CATCHING weapons we aren't going anywhere. Period.

And if BB can't do it. Then he isn't the coach I want on this team anymore. So I very much hope he can figure it out, cause i like every thing else he brings.

If you are okay with quick exits in the playoffs though, we can keep trying to cobble wins together with good defense and B level offensive talent, but when the rubber meets the road, the lack of play makers will bite us. Personally with the current 14 team format, and now needing to win 4 games in a row unless you have the #1 seed, I am not at all interested in just making the playoffs and shrugging when it then falls apart when our run game gets stopped an our WRs can't win 1v1,

 

[Boomer B]

All we have to do is look at the last 3 SB winners and the contenders. All have legit weapons. At some point you’re gonna get in some shoot outs. Mac needs weapons.