Analyzing the offense

[Ring 6]

Over the years, I have seen game plans that I felt held the offense back and others that made it much more effective. Looking at this year I think the overall philosophy has been leaning toward holding it back, clearly out of a goal of limiting mistakes and turnovers and playing complementary football. When you look over the season this team has been competitive against anyone, blow games open when things go well, but struggle in tight games especially vs good teams. I think the 2 are related.
The game plans that hold the offense back always seem to be games where the priority seems to be staying on schedule on down and distance, getting to 3rd and makable and avoiding poor down no distance situations, while the most effective approach pushes the ball down the field and gets chunk plays.

When you look at the season, offensively they are:
6th in scoring
17th in turnovers
2nd in % of drives resulting in points
10th in 3rd down conversions
11th in red zone TD % (but #1 since the 2/8 start in weeks 1-3
Balnaced, 8th in rushing, 14th in passing (probably would be more like 10 and 10 without the 3 pass game anomaly)
6 in time of possession

Statistically that looks like an offense that would be a 12-5, 13-4 team

Defensively
2 in points allowed
3 in takeaways
4 in yards
5 in 3rd down conv
2 in red zone
2 in % of drives allowing points

That looks like a defense that would be 14-3 or 15-2

Yet we are 10-7

I want to deep dive into the offense to see where the disconnect may be.

Cumualtive stats over a full season without situational context have little value other than a general overall impression.

Situationally gives a better look at what causes winning and losing.
In this case, the overall #s indicate the Patriots are a good team that plays close games against good teams but fall short more than it would seem they should.
I think the offensive approach of playing conservatively fits into that. You have to make a lot more plays to score, and to score TDs if you aren’t getting chunk plays, and against good teams you have less room for error with a non scoring drive or a turnover,

So here is a break down that I think shows this no other interesting facts. For comparison I used the 2017 offense which I think was good example of a good patriots offense that was more on the aggressive side.

FIRST DOWN
Run/pass ratio. 55% run 45% pass
-we averaged 4.3 per rush and gained 38 first downs on 263 1st down rushes.
-we completed 68.6% of passes, and 68 of 144 completions and 210 attempts resulted in 1st downs
-so less than half of the completed passes gained a 1st down
-only allowed 6 sacks in 216 drop backs on 1st

COMPARED TO 2017
run/pass almost identical at 54/46
-rushing avg 4.6 1 fewer 1st on 4 more rushes
-68.2% but 81 1st downs on 148 completions
-11 sacks

2nd down (the key in my opinion prior to looking at numbers)
run/pass ratio 46/54
rush avg 4.6 but only 65 1st downs on 159 rushes
70.9% completion but only 53 1sts in 127 completions, 9 sacks

2017
35/65 run/pass
3.7 per rush 49 1sts in 127 att
69.2% 84 1st in 153 completes, 11 sacks

First interesting fact, 2017 made 133 1sts on 2nd down vs 118 in 2021 with an extra game.
2017 did throw more but also while completing a lower % had A much higher rate of converting a 1st; 55% of completions gained 1st downs vs 42 this year.

To go deeper, on 2nd and 7+ 2021
32/68 r/p
31 1st on 96 completes out of 134 attempts (71.6% complete but only 23% sufficient yards for a first)

2017
24/76 r/p
40 firsts on 102 completes and 148 (68.9 complete 27 1st)

2nd and <7
2021
65/35 r/p
22 first on 31 completes and 45 attempts (68.9; 49)


2017
50/50 r/p
44 1st on 51 completes and 73 attempts (69.9; 60)

This is a huge difference.
On 2nd and less than 7 in 2017 we threw 73 times and made 44 first downs and this years we only threw 44 times and made 22 first downs.
Compartively this year we are relying so much more on converting many 3rd downs,

IS FIRST DOWN TO BLAME?
No.
2021 % of 2nds with yards to go
1-3 17.9
4-6 23.6
7-9 23.6
10+ 34.8
avg yards to go 7.7

2017
1-3 17.8
4-6 24.8
7-9 22.0
10+ 35.4
avg yards to go 7.5

almost identical

while the 2017 offense produce 12 more 1st downs on first down than 2021, they were almost in identical situations on 2 nd down with very different amounts of success

3RD DOWN
This is where it gets very interesting
Because they converted 27 more 1st downs on first and second down, the 2017 offense had 495 first down plays and only 201 3rd downs while the 2021 offense had 479 first down plays and 209 3rd downs. 2021 actually has a higher 3rd down conversion rate (43.5 to 40.8). 57.9% of 2021s 3rd downs were 6 or less to go, while 53.3 % Of 2017s were (and 31% vs 29% were 3 or less) so that’s the apparent trade off but it’s negligible.

Overall the 2021 offense scored 4 more points than the 2017 offense, was 61.9% vs 60% in the red zone ( but had 7 fewer trips in one extra game) and scored on 48% of drives vs 49.4%. 2021 exactly the same number of offensive TDs as 2017.
And this is where cumulative stats are meaningless without context. The 2021 team scored 17 or less 6 times and lost 5 of them while the 2017 team scored less than 20 just once and won.
2021 won 3 their 3 highest scoring games by a total of 149-30 and 2017 by 114-70.

The other factor that can’t be overlooked is the 2017 team committed 12 turnovers and 2021 committed 23, and 16 were in losses. But those turnovers only led to the defense allowing 7 more points in one more game.

What I think this illustrates is that overall the 2021 was every bit as good as the 2017 offense, but it was not nearly as consistent or as good against better teams. Underlying that is the conservative play calling. While the offense was unbelievably good overall, and the conservative approach is surely justified, what’s going on inside the numbers is that while we throw as much, and have an almost identical run/pass ratio, and similar completion percentages, we are relying more on short passes on first and second down (and throwing less on 2nd) so a much more methodical drive is necessary. It seems to work even better when we are in control of the game, but it caused the offense to struggle in close games against better teams.
The real question is whether Jones is being coached to do this or choosing to do it himself. The ultimate issue becomes (since the patriots are a high to low progression offense) the definition of open. Mac has to read his first progression and decide whether it’s open and throw or move on. That also includes the factor of how long you wait to decide as the route is coming open. It’s clear that his definition of open is conservative and he passes on the progressions more readily. To compete in the playoffs that is what has to change, and especially on 2nd down he needs to throw the ball up the field, to elevate this offense to be more successful against good teams, like it is against not as good teams.

Im sure there are other opinions to be formed from these numbers, and what we have seen, so hopefully this can create some discussion.

 

[Pats1971]

Over the years, I have seen game plans that I felt held the offense back and others that made it much more effective. Looking at this year I think the overall philosophy has been leaning toward holding it back, clearly out of a goal of limiting mistakes and turnovers and playing complementary football. When you look over the season this team has been competitive against anyone, blow games open when things go well, but struggle in tight games especially vs good teams. I think the 2 are related.
The game plans that hold the offense back always seem to be games where the priority seems to be staying on schedule on down and distance, getting to 3rd and makable and avoiding poor down no distance situations, while the most effective approach pushes the ball down the field and gets chunk plays.

When you look at the season, offensively they are:
6th in scoring
17th in turnovers
2nd in % of drives resulting in points
10th in 3rd down conversions
11th in red zone TD % (but #1 since the 2/8 start in weeks 1-3
Balnaced, 8th in rushing, 14th in passing (probably would be more like 10 and 10 without the 3 pass game anomaly)
6 in time of possession

Statistically that looks like an offense that would be a 12-5, 13-4 team

Defensively
2 in points allowed
3 in takeaways
4 in yards
5 in 3rd down conv
2 in red zone
2 in % of drives allowing points

That looks like a defense that would be 14-3 or 15-2

Yet we are 10-7

I want to deep dive into the offense to see where the disconnect may be.

Cumualtive stats over a full season without situational context have little value other than a general overall impression.

Situationally gives a better look at what causes winning and losing.
In this case, the overall #s indicate the Patriots are a good team that plays close games against good teams but fall short more than it would seem they should.
I think the offensive approach of playing conservatively fits into that. You have to make a lot more plays to score, and to score TDs if you aren’t getting chunk plays, and against good teams you have less room for error with a non scoring drive or a turnover,

So here is a break down that I think shows this no other interesting facts. For comparison I used the 2017 offense which I think was good example of a good patriots offense that was more on the aggressive side.

FIRST DOWN
Run/pass ratio. 55% run 45% pass
-we averaged 4.3 per rush and gained 38 first downs on 263 1st down rushes.
-we completed 68.6% of passes, and 68 of 144 completions and 210 attempts resulted in 1st downs
-so less than half of the completed passes gained a 1st down
-only allowed 6 sacks in 216 drop backs on 1st

COMPARED TO 2017
run/pass almost identical at 54/46
-rushing avg 4.6 1 fewer 1st on 4 more rushes
-68.2% but 81 1st downs on 148 completions
-11 sacks

2nd down (the key in my opinion prior to looking at numbers)
run/pass ratio 46/54
rush avg 4.6 but only 65 1st downs on 159 rushes
70.9% completion but only 53 1sts in 127 completions, 9 sacks

2017
35/65 run/pass
3.7 per rush 49 1sts in 127 att
69.2% 84 1st in 153 completes, 11 sacks

First interesting fact, 2017 made 133 1sts on 2nd down vs 118 in 2021 with an extra game.
2017 did throw more but also while completing a lower % had A much higher rate of converting a 1st; 55% of completions gained 1st downs vs 42 this year.

To go deeper, on 2nd and 7+ 2021
32/68 r/p
31 1st on 96 completes out of 134 attempts (71.6% complete but only 23% sufficient yards for a first)

2017
24/76 r/p
40 firsts on 102 completes and 148 (68.9 complete 27 1st)

2nd and <7
2021
65/35 r/p
22 first on 31 completes and 45 attempts (68.9; 49)


2017
50/50 r/p
44 1st on 51 completes and 73 attempts (69.9; 60)

This is a huge difference.
On 2nd and less than 7 in 2017 we threw 73 times and made 44 first downs and this years we only threw 44 times and made 22 first downs.
Compartively this year we are relying so much more on converting many 3rd downs,

IS FIRST DOWN TO BLAME?
No.
2021 % of 2nds with yards to go
1-3 17.9
4-6 23.6
7-9 23.6
10+ 34.8
avg yards to go 7.7

2017
1-3 17.8
4-6 24.8
7-9 22.0
10+ 35.4
avg yards to go 7.5

almost identical

while the 2017 offense produce 12 more 1st downs on first down than 2021, they were almost in identical situations on 2 nd down with very different amounts of success

3RD DOWN
This is where it gets very interesting
Because they converted 27 more 1st downs on first and second down, the 2017 offense had 495 first down plays and only 201 3rd downs while the 2021 offense had 479 first down plays and 209 3rd downs. 2021 actually has a higher 3rd down conversion rate (43.5 to 40.8). 57.9% of 2021s 3rd downs were 6 or less to go, while 53.3 % Of 2017s were (and 31% vs 29% were 3 or less) so that’s the apparent trade off but it’s negligible.

Overall the 2021 offense scored 4 more points than the 2017 offense, was 61.9% vs 60% in the red zone ( but had 7 fewer trips in one extra game) and scored on 48% of drives vs 49.4%. 2021 exactly the same number of offensive TDs as 2017.
And this is where cumulative stats are meaningless without context. The 2021 team scored 17 or less 6 times and lost 5 of them while the 2017 team scored less than 20 just once and won.
2021 won 3 their 3 highest scoring games by a total of 149-30 and 2017 by 114-70.

The other factor that can’t be overlooked is the 2017 team committed 12 turnovers and 2021 committed 23, and 16 were in losses. But those turnovers only led to the defense allowing 7 more points in one more game.

What I think this illustrates is that overall the 2021 was every bit as good as the 2017 offense, but it was not nearly as consistent or as good against better teams. Underlying that is the conservative play calling. While the offense was unbelievably good overall, and the conservative approach is surely justified, what’s going on inside the numbers is that while we throw as much, and have an almost identical run/pass ratio, and similar completion percentages, we are relying more on short passes on first and second down (and throwing less on 2nd) so a much more methodical drive is necessary. It seems to work even better when we are in control of the game, but it caused the offense to struggle in close games against better teams.
The real question is whether Jones is being coached to do this or choosing to do it himself. The ultimate issue becomes (since the patriots are a high to low progression offense) the definition of open. Mac has to read his first progression and decide whether it’s open and throw or move on. That also includes the factor of how long you wait to decide as the route is coming open. It’s clear that his definition of open is conservative and he passes on the progressions more readily. To compete in the playoffs that is what has to change, and especially on 2nd down he needs to throw the ball up the field, to elevate this offense to be more successful against good teams, like it is against not as good teams.

Im sure there are other opinions to be formed from these numbers, and what we have seen, so hopefully this can create some discussion.

2017 Pats were 2nd in points scored 458. 1st in yards6307 yards 4418 passing 1889 Rushing. TD's 32 Passing Rushing 16. 2021 6th in PF 15th in yards. 3857 passing 14th 2151 Rushing 8th
2017 Average Starting yardline 28 2021 Average starting yardline 32
2017 Pats first downs 339 2021 Pats first downs 287
2017 Pats Turnover pct 6.9% 2021 Pats turnover pct 12.6%


Here is a weird note. On defense 2017 the pats were 5th in points against and 29th in yards against 2021 2nd in points and 4th in yards against.
Geez and people gripe about this defense this year?

 

[Poker]

Great analysis Ring 6. All the detailed data for each down definitely coincides with what my eyes and gut feel tell me when watching every game this year. A little too conservative and predictable on 1st down, too many second down runs vs passes esp in 2nd and 5-7ish, and when we pass on 2nd, too many check downs. All of these trends and the challenges they cause exacerbated in close games against better teams. Who we (perhaps coincidentally, perhaps not) also seemed have a higher incidence of killer turnovers and untimely bad penalties.

I agree with what I think you are implying we need to do starting tomorrow night: Unless the coaches want Mac to stick with the the risk-averse approach on offense, (either because they feel he's not ready, or he is ready but can't often enough pull the trigger on a chunk play attempt, or a one-off weather game exception again), then we need to open it up more on downs 2,3,1 (and 4!) in that order. I do think it would work well, esp if done with play action, given all the deep trends we've put on tape you've noted.

 

[Ring 6]

Great analysis Ring 6. All the detailed data for each down definitely coincides with what my eyes and gut feel tell me when watching every game this year. A little too conservative and predictable on 1st down, too many second down runs vs passes esp in 2nd and 5-7ish, and when we pass on 2nd, too many check downs. All of these trends and the challenges they cause exacerbated in close games against better teams. Who we (perhaps coincidentally, perhaps not) also seemed have a higher incidence of killer turnovers and untimely bad penalties.

I agree with what I think you are implying we need to do starting tomorrow night: Unless the coaches want Mac to stick with the the risk-averse approach on offense, (either because they feel he's not ready, or he is ready but can't often enough pull the trigger on a chunk play attempt, or a one-off weather game exception again), then we need to open it up more on downs 2,3,1 (and 4!) in that order. I do think it would work well, esp if done with play action, given all the deep trends we've put on tape you've noted.

My feeling has been for many years this offense struggles the most when we try to Just move the sticks. It’s especially frustrating when you move the ball, complete a bunch of passes then have a 3rd and 2 that gets tipped at the line, dropped, misfired or run and end up short. It doesn’t feel like the offense can’t move ve the ball but they short circuit and kill drives. 40% is a good 3rd down conversation rate. Needing to convert 2 or 3 is very different than needing to convert 7, which is why those chunk plays matter.

 

[captain stone]

Here is a weird note. On defense 2017 the pats were 5th in points against and 29th in yards against 2021 2nd in points and 4th in yards against.
Geez and people gripe about this defense this year?

As well they should... They're not blameless for the reasons why we're losing tomorrow night in Barfalo instead of having the week off.

 

[Ring 6]

As well they should... They're not blameless for the reasons why we're losing tomorrow night in Barfalo instead of having the week off.

And if they weren’t among the few best in the nfl we’d be sitting home watching.

 

[Pats1971]

As well they should... They're not blameless for the reasons why we're losing tomorrow night in Barfalo instead of having the week off.

We have had worst defenses and won superbowls. I mean top 5 in points against and yards against seems good.

 

[FCB02062]

I've been saying this September and getting banned for it. the offense has been way too conservative all season, and I would say an inordinate amount of their "long" pass attempts were on trick plays (vs other teams).
Captain conservative should've taken the training wheels off because now you're going into a road playoff game with an offense that knows nothing else than having to mount 340 play drives to score a field goal (sarcasm, folks). this trickles down to the defense and the need for near perfection. but the same is true for the offense; without near perfect execution the offense is lucky to score a touchdown and a couple field goals before it's down 14 desperation time in the 4th

 

[captain stone]

And if they weren’t among the few best in the nfl we’d be sitting home watching.

We'll be sitting at home watching soon enough...

 

[captain stone]

We have had worst defenses and won superbowls. I mean top 5 in points against and yards against seems good.

They're also top 5 in needing one more stop to win a game and choking it away...

 

[Ring 6]

I've been saying this September and getting banned for it. the offense has been way too conservative all season, and I would say an inordinate amount of their "long" pass attempts were on trick plays (vs other teams).
Captain conservative should've taken the training wheels off because now you're going into a road playoff game with an offense that knows nothing else than having to mount 340 play drives to score a field goal (sarcasm, folks). this trickles down to the defense and the need for near perfection. but the same is true for the offense; without near perfect execution the offense is lucky to score a touchdown and a couple field goals before it's down 14 desperation time in the 4th

No, no, no.
It’s not WAY TOO CONSERVATIVE.
With a rookie QB the offense is 6th in scoring, 2nd in % of possessions scored on, 11th in red zone, but first the last 14 games. You may not be able to find a more effective offense with a rookie QB.
The conservative nature though is subtle. It’s a handful of plays where Jones checks down instead of throwing 8-12 yards downfield. It’s being more aggressive on 2nd and 6 to try and make a big play and accept you may have 3rd and 6 instead of prioritizing gaining yards to be in better shape on 3rd.

 

[Ring 6]

They're also top 5 in needing one more stop to win a game and choking it away...

No they aren’t. There are only 8 teams in the league with fewer losses.

 

[Ring 6]

We'll be sitting at home watching soon enough...

I know, that’s what you are hoping for.

 

[captain stone]

No they aren’t. There are only 8 teams in the league with fewer losses.

There should've been only two teams in the league with fewer losses, and neither of them in the AFC.

 

[Ring 6]

There should've been only two teams in the league with fewer losses, and neither of them in the AFC.

How can that be if the patriots have zero chance of winning tomorrow?
Your argument appears to be they suck because they are so good.
In any event I created this thread with the intention to have a discussion on the offense and the numbers and game planning. W3 all know you have given up on the patriots and think they should forfeit so please don’t pollute this thread with it. Thanks

 

[FCB02062]

No, no, no.
It’s not WAY TOO CONSERVATIVE.
With a rookie QB the offense is 6th in scoring, 2nd in % of possessions scored on, 11th in red zone, but first the last 14 games. You may not be able to find a more effective offense with a rookie QB.
The conservative nature though is subtle. It’s a handful of plays where Jones checks down instead of throwing 8-12 yards downfield. It’s being more aggressive on 2nd and 6 to try and make a big play and accept you may have 3rd and 6 instead of prioritizing gaining yards to be in better shape on 3rd.

correct, the game management results in too many third downs where running is not an option
also, don't forget the Pats have I'd sat at least 4 or 5 touchdowns late in games after they've been down double digits late. This skews that points scored #...
a more exacting analysis would be the first half #s, because that's where the crazy super captain conservative crap has screwed the club

 

[Stu Pidassle]

We have had worst defenses and won superbowls. I mean top 5 in points against and yards against seems good.

The Boogeymen showed that aggregate stats can be deceiving. This defense plays well with the lead, not so well when the team needs a stop. It is also fair to say that many games where the defense failed to get a stop at the end of the game where the same games where the offense left them to hold the fort for the first 3 quarters. It is not surprising that there was no energy left to get the ball back when it was needed most. Ultimately the team needs to play aggressive, complimentary football in all three phases to win against the Bildos Saturday.

 

[FCB02062]

I'd also bet that the Pats are a bottom half club in points scored in the first half

 

[Ross12]

Personally feel like the modern NFL rewards an offense that tries to be explosive much more than one that tries to be efficient. So many DPI flags, holding calls that grant automatic 1st downs, etc. Of course you've gotta be able to protect long enough to let those plays develop, which feels like it has not been a strength this year.

 

[Fubby]

To boil it all down…

Offense - Shaky O-Line and no big play potential

Defense - Poor run stopping and can’t get off the field when they must make a stop

Special Teams - Worst I’ve seen in the Belichick era