Content Post Idle Thoughts: The "why do I feel so bad about a 23 pt. victory" edition.

[scout]

FWIW, here's the Pats' rush defense the last four games:

78 yards to McCaffrey and Carolina
99 yards to Cleveland (who has a great running game even without Chubb)
40 yards to Atlanta
270 yards to Tennessee

So it's not like they're getting steamrolled every week. And honestly, you'll happily give up 270 rush yards if you're only giving up 85 pass yards. That's "only" 355 total yards. The average team in the NFL gains 349 yards per game, so all in all, that was basically a league average defensive performance yardage-wise. Not bad if that's your "bad" game.

I can't help not to look ahead to the Buffalo game, which has no running game. I also keep thinking the Super Bowl with the Giants when BB told his defense to let Thurman Thomas get running yards. I don't know, although, I do look forward to Ken's analysis on Mondays.

 

[NYCPatsFan]

Glad that I am not alone in both celebrating and agonizing over getting that 'Perfect Season' Ken. Thanks for the write-up.

Thrilled that the team has stepped up and won all their games in November - which typically is the month where teams get to know their capability and strengths/weakness better. Super excited about the team, and cautiously optimistic that they will win both @ Buffalo and at home.

Go PATS!!

 

[NashuaPats]

I understand Ken’s thoughts. It felt like Mac was inaccurate and left a lot of yards and points on the field. Yet, he completed 70% of his passes for 310 and we won easily. I think the biggest takeaway is that we played poorly and still blew out the 8-3 Titans with plenty of room for improvement while sitting near the top of the conference and in control of our destiny with a 6 game winning streak. That’s a great place to be.

 

[patfanken]

You're right to be worried, I think, Ken -- although not THAT worried.

J McD has been running a super-conservative offense (run up the middle on first down) and sometimes that gets stopped, like it did yesterday. We've seen enough this season to know that he has plenty of wilder plays up his sleeve and I'm going to guess that they'll come out if needed. At the moment, though, it's all been about bringing Mac Jones along without breaking his confidence. McD has done a great job of that. The glitches -- not picking up delayed blitzes, the occasional bad throw -- are pretty minor compared with Jones's achievements. The first KB touchdown was great, not just for itself but for what it showed us those two players can do together.

But I do think that the run defense is seriously worrying. If your defense gives up a big play to a wonder catch by OBJ or DeAndre Hopkins or gets outrun by Brandin Cooks, fair enough. But not all teams have players like that. But every team has running plays for first down or third and short and, if you can't stop those, others will see it. Even during the Falcons and Browns games I was haunted by the memory of the Chargers converting a 4th down and pushing their running back into the endzone. Your DL has to stop that kind of nonsense.

In the past, the Patriots have done that with at least one big guy in the middle, going back to Ted Washington and Vince Wilfork. They don't need to be exceptional players like those two. Keith Traylor, Alan Branch and Danny Shelton did the job. I thought that was supposed to be Godchaux. If he can't get it done, it's a serious problem. Barmore is obviously a huge handful for the OL but he's not an out and out run stuffer (I think) and Guy and Davis aren't able to do the job, it seems.

What's worse is that BB pushed all his chips onto the table this season. Not only did he sign more players than anyone had a right to expect, but he signed them to deals that will accelerate next season. So there won't be the space for any kind of big signing to the DL in the off-season, given other needs (cornerback, tackle, safety).

I was really surprised that BB was spending like that for a team that, at the time, didn't have a quarterback. Now they've got one who is doing far better than any of us had a right to expect so this "re-building year" has suddenly become a competitive year. I'm thankful for that. Even if they go down in flames against the Bills and the Colts (I hope they don't, of course) it will have been a good year.

kind of makes me wonder if the Henry Anderson injury was more impactful than we thought. IIRC he was touted as being a top run stuffer at a 3-4 DE. A bit more stout than say Detrick Wise

 

[Ring 6]

Well.... then doesnt that mean they did a bad job?

They knew they would run all day because we played a scheme that encouraged them to run.
Result: 2 drives with more than 2 first downs, 13 points and 7 on a fluke play.
No they did a very good job.

 

[Mike the Brit]

I think the Pats will have around 48M next year, but have quite a number of FA as well, starting with JC.Jackson, Meyers, McCourty, Brown, Phillips, Hightower, White, etc. there are some players I would love to keep which will cost some money, but regarding a well needed NT, there are not so many FA available, I would go via Draft and go after Davis as he is a monster in the IDL and incredibly fast for a NT

Where did you get that figure? Overthecap says $26 million:

New England Patriots Salary Cap | Over the Cap

New England Patriots salary cap, contracts, bonus money, dead money, and cap savings for every player

overthecap.com

 

[everlong]

I told everyone who would listen this week that this was going to be a game for 3 quarters. That's a high quality OL and DL the Pats played against. The only reason the score ended up like it did was because the defense rose to the occasion and turned them over and the offense wore down their defense.

All of you should not tune in today to squeeky and the douche because they're going to act like they survived a tomato can game. BS. That's a good team and if they get everybody back it's a coin flip game gaing aginast them.

Check my post history. I'm not a blind homer. I've been very critical of the team when it's justified. In this case it simply isn't. They wore down and beat a quality oppoentt who yes was shorthanded but not incompenent. Solid win.

 

[masterbouncer]

Where did you get that figure? Overthecap says $26 million:

New England Patriots Salary Cap | Over the Cap

New England Patriots salary cap, contracts, bonus money, dead money, and cap savings for every player

overthecap.com

yeah not sure about it, because they say the salary cap will be 186M but the projection for 2022 is 208M and I think it will be more likely closer to the 208M than to the 186M, this year was a fluke because of the Covid season else we would be above 200M, so guess the league tries to catch up now and BB was calculating it in already during this years FA when he signed all of those free agents

NFL, NFLPA agree to $208.2M salary cap ceiling for 2022 season

The NFL and the NFLPA on Wednesday agreed to a $208.2 million salary cap ceiling for the 2022 season, NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reported.

www.nfl.com

 

[Mike the Brit]

yeah not sure about it, because they say the salary cap will be 186M but the projection for 2022 is 208M and I think it will be more likely closer to the 208M than to the 186M, this year was a fluke because of the Covid season else we would be above 200M, so guess the league tries to catch up now and BB was calculating it in already during this years FA when he signed all of those free agents

NFL, NFLPA agree to $208.2M salary cap ceiling for 2022 season

The NFL and the NFLPA on Wednesday agreed to a $208.2 million salary cap ceiling for the 2022 season, NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reported.

www.nfl.com

OTC says the 22 liabilities are 186million and the cap space is 26million, so that would give a 2002 cap number of 212million. In other words, the increase in the cap is already built in. (How I miss not having @Miguel on Patsfans!)

 

[n6249c]

Haven’t seen snap counts, but did Barmore even play yesterday? I saw he was active, but never heard his name mentioned as a play maker?

I don’t recall hearing his name or seeing him make plays. Want to see the snap counts. Meanwhile I think it’s a good question to wonder whether his injury contributed to the poor run defense, whether he was totally absent or merely less effective (I expect more likely the former).

 

[upstater1]

1. As for the Patriots run defense, I noticed they went light up front while getting gashed. 2 DL and an edge player. That is it. It was almost by design because I think Belichick believed Tennessee could gash them all day long but it wouldn't kill the Patriots. It might have backfired if not for JC Jackson's forced fumble.

1A. The Bills must be thinking they can run on the Patriots, LOL, so this is good camo for the upcoming game.

2. Wasn't that Harris on the long Patriot run for a TD? I believe it was.

3. Jakoby was a QB in high school, but I'm pretty sure he played WR during his entire career at NC State. So he's not making an Edelman-ish transition here. He clearly knows the tricks of the WR trade more than most. So he's perfect for a McDaniels offense.

4. Still can't believe we got Bourne for $15m for 3 years.

 

[Chevy]

2013 we allowed 280 to Denver, holding manning to 150 and frustrating him and beating Denver.
This team has been a game plan team for 20 years. They defense each opponent differently and uniquely. The 68 yard TD was a fluke. Tennessee was virtually giving up running in that down/distance clock time and time out situation.
Take that away and you have 200 rush yards 85 pass yards and 6 points. What is wrong with rope a doping a team into not being able to score points?
Ultimately Tennessee had 2 drives all day with more than 2 first downs.

Anyone else have visions of Ray Rice circa January 2010 when Tenn broke that 68 yard run?

 

[n6249c]

I don’t recall hearing his name or seeing him make plays. Want to see the snap counts. Meanwhile I think it’s a good question to wonder whether his injury contributed to the poor run defense, whether he was totally absent or merely less effective (I expect more likely the former).

defensive snap count. Looks like Barmore played just over half the defensive snaps. So much for the theory he was out. Maybe rookie learning curve?

 

[Ring 6]

Anyone else have visions of Ray Rice circa January 2010 when Tenn broke that 68 yard run?

No.

 

[BTTA]

I think they'll fix whatever DL problems they had yesterday. It did seem to be about scheme and a couple of badly executed plays.
The OL being outmatched worries me more.
Mac's inaccuracy in his first cold weather, wet game worries me even more. Hope it is a simple learning curve issue.

 

[Mike the Brit]

1. As for the Patriots run defense, I noticed they went light up front while getting gashed. 2 DL and an edge player. That is it. It was almost by design because I think Belichick believed Tennessee could gash them all day long but it wouldn't kill the Patriots. It might have backfired if not for JC Jackson's forced fumble.

Between them Godchaux, Davis, Guy, Barmore and Wise had 176 snaps, which means that 3 of them will have been on the field per snap, on average. That doesn't look "light" to me. As for the idea of it being a sensible plan to stop ... Tanny throwing to Hollister and Firkser? Not exactly scary!

 

[Ring 6]

Between them Godchaux, Davis, Guy, Barmore and Wise had 176 snaps, which means that 3 of them will have been on the field per snap, on average. That doesn't look "light" to me. As for the idea of it being a sensible plan to stop ... Tanny throwing to Hollister and Firkser? Not exactly scary!

It worked

 

[sb1]

I don't know about most yards allowed rushing in the BB era. It's more than they gave up in any game in 2002 so I'd say probably. Tried looking it up with stathead.com but that's behind a paywall now and that sucks.

I found out 270 is the most yards given up on the ground by any team this year, that's 6 more than the Bills gave up in the Colts game.

 

[ivanvamp]

I think they'll fix whatever DL problems they had yesterday. It did seem to be about scheme and a couple of badly executed plays.
The OL being outmatched worries me more.
Mac's inaccuracy in his first cold weather, wet game worries me even more. Hope it is a simple learning curve issue.

Inaccuracy? He missed Henry for a TD. He had one ball slip out of his hands (the swing pass to Bourne that hit the turf). He had one undercut by a defender that could have been picked.

Otherwise he was damned good and highly accurate. You're nitpicking ball placement on completed passes. I don't know what you expect from him if 71% completion for 310 yards, 2 TD and 0 int doesn't do it for you. He also hit a bunch of guys in perfect spots for big YAC.

Dude wasn't perfect but he was GREAT yesterday. The Pats scored on virtually every possession and put up 36 points without a defensive or special teams score.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

... Defense - Has a Bill Bellichick defense EVER given up 270 yds on the ground during his time in NE, or anywhere else for that matter. It was really awful.

I don't know about 270+, but I read that the Patriots under BB have given up 250+ yards rushing 5 times.

Their record in the 5 games?

4-1.

I always enjoy your postgame analysis, Ken. Thanks agian!