How do you figure they don't control their own destiny for HFA? They have 1 Conference loss. Every other team other than the Titans has at least 2. The Chargers, Raiders, Bengals, and Steelers all have 2. The Ravens and Bills each have 3.
The Browns game was HUGE as was the Chargers game when it comes to tie breakers. The Titans game and the Bills games are huge as well in the scheme of things but they Pats have an even chance in all 3 of those games. Both games against the Bills will determine who wins the division.
If the Pats win both Games against the Bills, the Pats take the division but end up tied with the Bills, the Pats still take the division because of head-to-head. And that is the case even if the Pats were to lose the Miami game.
If the Pats beat the Titans and they end up tied with the Titans, the Pats would be seeded ahead of them.
The Miami game only factors in to HFA if the Pats don't get business done. But that is them controlling their destiny.