Kicking the 56 yard FG vs going for it on 4th and 3

[sb1]

They used the bag of tricks already in this game more than once. If you’re more confident in that than your QB to get the 4th down conversion then use it again.

Kicking is not a defensible decision. Sorry

 

[Pape]

THATS OK. YOU ARE ENTITLED TO YOUR OPINIONS

NO IM NOT BECAUSE APPARENTLY JAH HAS DETERMINED MY OPINIONS ARE BAD FAITH... LIKE THE BAND MAYBE...

OR WAS THAT BLIND MELON ... OR MELON COMPANY... BAD MELON BLIND COMPANY SOMETHING LIKE THAT

 

[sb1]

Whether it was Bill or Josh… bad call

 

[holyredeemer]

Do these metrics take the weather into account? I honestly don’t know.

 

[Kdo5]

They used the bag of tricks already in this game more than once. If you’re more confident in that than your QB to get the 4th down conversion then use it again.

Kicking is not a defensible decision. Sorry

Seriously? Dude missed it just barely. I was at the bar and people were cheering thinking it was good. Maybe if Folk sucked or he totally shanked it but that wasn’t the case.

 

[NG Pats Fan]

THATS OK. YOU ARE ENTITLED TO YOUR OPINIONS

if only that were true on this forum. Prior to 2018, it used to be that way

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

and you know what, no matter what decision BB made, it would have been excoriated if it didnt work.
You know you;d be here screaming for his head if they went for it and didnt convert.

Not a fair assumption to those disagreeing with the call. I agreed with the decision to punt at the end of half one, that one kinda backfired, gave up 3 instead of potentially scoring 3. But I'll stand with BB on that one, I would have punted as well. i stood with him on 4th and 2 against the colts, totally get the logic there. Disagreed with this call from the moment I heard Folk is coming onto the field and the result obviously didnt change my mind about it.

 

[NG Pats Fan]

Embarrassingly bad decision to kick field goal. what happened to the belichick who took risks To win? who took intentional safeties to beat Denver at mile high in 03, who went for it on 4th in 2 from own territory against Indianapolis in 2009 to defeat a prime Peyton Manning?

 

[JayNM]

Do these metrics take the weather into account? I honestly don’t know.

From what I understand, most advanced metrics try to internalize external factor for in-game probability

So like, Instead of saying Y= A + b X + c, they can do something Y = A + b X1 + d X2 + e X3 ...+ c, where X2, X3... are what used to be exogenous variables, like weather and wind and other ****

so yeah, they do use

and this post goes to @Twentytothree , if u disagree, let me know

 

[Pape]

Not a fair assumption to those disagreeing with the call. I agreed with the decision to punt at the end of half one, that one kinda backfired, gave up 3 instead of potentially scoring 3. But I'll stand with BB on that one, I would have punted as well. i stood with him on 4th and 2, totally get the logic there. Disagreed with this call from the moment I heard Folk is coming onto the field and the result obviously didnt change my mind about it.

Its not unfair. Its how these forums have been playing out for months.

 

[Boomer B]

Get the corpses on Hightower and Van Noy dragged by tthose fatties Godsucks and Henry Anderson out of the club.

Making A TON of personnel mistakes on defense, penalty after penalty, downgrading the coaching on the O-line

And now? The most cowardly decision I ever seen.

Mac was SHOWING IT. He deserved that chance.

But NAH. Trust the elderly Kicker with a .6 career on +50 to tie his personal best.

It's half the drinking speaking, half the fact that i have to work in 4 hours, but **** YOU BB, JAKE WAS RIGHT

You might wanna sit the next play out Sparky

 

[Bruins29]

if only that were true on this forum. Prior to 2018, it used to be that way

You should leave then. You certainly wont be missed nor will we miss your families money. LMAO

 

[denverpatsfan]

Not where the game was lost.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Its not unfair. Its how these forums have been playing out for months.

Can't apply that conclusion to everyone who disagrees with a call, based upon what certain other forum members are saying.

 

[Triumph]

Its only a bad call because Folk didnt make it.

 

[Tunescribe]

let's not forget that since the 8-0 start in 2019, the head coach has coached this team to a 12-17 record....

Beats cleaning septic tanks for a living, wouldn't you say?

 

[sb1]

Bill in 2009: We went for it on 4th and 2 because we didn’t want to give the ball to Peyton Manning

Bill tonight: On 4th and 3 we’re gonna try a 56 yard FG in bad weather with our kicker who doesn’t have that range - because best case scenario I’d love to give the GOAT another shot at winning this one

 

[Triumph]

Not where the game was lost.

A foot to the right and its another FG of Patriots lore.

 

[Twentytothree]

I agree. I’ve always defended 4th and 2.

The way I saw it, you had with these conditions, maybe at absolute best - I think this is generous - a 50% chance on the kick. Then if he makes it, maybe a 65% chance of stopping Brady from getting 3. So overall, I see that as roughly a 33% chance to win.

ok.

If you convert 4th and 3, you’re very close to a sub-50 yard field goal deciding the game. I don’t know the odds there, but against that horrid secondary and within Folk’s range, I imagine you’re closer to a 50% chance overall.

4th and 3 on average is ~45%. If you don't have a working running game it's not going to be higher. Generously, a 10 yards shorter FG might improve things from 50% to 70% - voila, 32% chance to win (and of course options to lose/win the game on the spot even after converting).

 

[FCB02062]

Beats cleaning septic tanks for a living, wouldn't you say?

luckily I have town sewer and don't know the answer to that...