2021 Draft: Bold Predictions (in poop)

[Ring 6]

Please share the data set you are analyzing that leads you to this conclusion.

The history of top 10 QBs. Feel free to give examples that refute it.

 

[Clonamery]

The history of top 10 QBs. Feel free to give examples that refute it.

Injuries.

 

[Ring 6]

Injuries.

Definitely a risk that could slow down development but what QB went into a strong situation and busted even due to injuries.
I can’t think of many top 10 QBs who had their career derailed by injuries early on.

 

[scott99]

Alabama DT Christian Barmore is the pick at 15, then they trade up to a higher pick in the 2nd round for QB Kellen Mond of Kyle Trask. Jimmy G stays in SF to mentor Trey Lance for a year.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Ok, if we’re making “Bold” predictions....

- Patriots do not draft a QB until day 3, if that
- Patriots acquire at least one day 1/2 pick in the 2022 draft, to make up for the lack of comp picks coming next year
- Patriots make far fewer than 10 draft selections; in the range of 7
- Will select one WR in rounds 1-3
- All other picks will have an eye toward 2022..... LB, FS, CB, OT, RB.

 

[WeezyFbaby]

Pats trade up to 7 and draft Justin Fields

Pats take Kyle Trask in the third round 96

Double down on QBs like WFT with RG3 and Cousins

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

In case youse guys have NSA connections and are monitoring our TV, I hereby openly confess that our lone TV will be tuned to the CW to watch programs on Meghan & Harry stuff, not the draft.
Since I have no idea who any of these college players are other than Lawrence & maybe Wilson, I'll wait for Patsfans to tell me what's up.
- more gelded than Tommy Boy

 

[50-yard-line]

Disagree. The point of moving up is to grab a potential franchise QB. That’s the hope. If Fields or Lance are busts, then it doesn’t make any sense to move up. A franchise QB should be on your team for 10 to 15 years. Like Tom Brady, Russel Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes.

No player comes into the league with a guarantee of becoming a franchise player but you hope they become one. Trevor Lawrence, Zac Wilson, Fields, Jones and Lance can all turn out to be busts, but it doesn’t mean you don’t take a chance they might turn out to be great players. It is all about taking a chance and hoping.

While I agree with your hopes, the truth is that after year 4, that QB starts getting expensive, and by the time year 5 gets there, that QB is eating tons of CAP.

Wilson's contract is hurting Seattle.
Watson's contract (now) will devastate Houston.
Mahomes, who is beyond any and all expectations, is going to be playing with a much weaker cast very soon.

The days of "our guy" forever and ever (Manning, Brady, AR, etc.) may be coming to a swift end because of hte absurd value now placed on the position.

 

[BTTA]

How many top 10 QBs went to a team that has what the patriots do in terms of coaching, system, OL, running game, TEs, and defense and failed?
Qbs bust because they don’t get coached up and play on crappy teams that they have to try and carry before they are ready.

The history of top 10 QBs. Feel free to give examples that refute it.

You asked a research question and then refute basic research methods.
To answer the question you posed requires the entire data set of QB's taken in the first round, then see how many of them failed vs. became top 10, then compare/contrast the conditions under which each of those happened.
Otherwise, its just subjective impressions serving to support a predetermined conclusion.

 

[Ring 6]

You asked a research question and then refute basic research methods.
To answer the question you posed requires the entire data set of QB's taken in the first round, then see how many of them failed vs. became top 10, then compare/contrast the conditions under which each of those happened.
Otherwise, its just subjective impressions serving to support a predetermined conclusion.

No it does not. I can look out my window every morning and a year later tell you how common snow, rain or sunshine are without needing to look up statistics. I can easily look at the top 10 QBs who busted and recognize that it happens to bad teams with bad coaching and doesn’t happen to good teams with good coaching.
Feel free to do you exhaustive study of what is obvious and give a couple of examples that dispute what I see.

 

[The Brandon Five]

Aren't we due to draft another long snapper in the 5th?

 

[RDS11]

How many top 10 QBs went to a team that has what the patriots do in terms of coaching, system, OL, running game, TEs, and defense and failed?

Maybe you can't think of one that failed because this situation rarely happens ? Top 10 QBs are, by definition, usually drafted by bottom-10 teams, not Patriots-like teams.

But, to play your game which hasn't many example, Christian Ponder was drafted (although 12th overall) by a good organization and a good coaching staff, and failed. Goff and Wentz are not total failures, but the teams that drafted them are moving on from them after getting to a Super Bowl. RG3 was drafted by Mike Shanahan, 2-times Super Bowl champion, a coach Belichick highly respect, and failed.

 

[Ring 6]

Maybe you can't think of one that failed because this situation rarely happens ? Top 10 QBs are, by definition, usually drafted by bottom-10 teams, not Patriots-like teams.

But, to play your game which hasn't many example, Christian Ponder was drafted (although 12th overall) by a good organization and a good coaching staff, and failed. Goff and Wentz are not total failures, but the teams that drafted them are moving on from them after getting to a Super Bowl. RG3 was drafted by Mike Shanahan, 2-times Super Bowl champion, a coach Belichick highly respect, and failed.

Ponder was drafted by a 6-10 team that had fired their hc and had Leslie Frazier as hc and Bill Musgrave as OC.

Goff went to a SB and wentz was an mvp candidate and both went to teams that stank when they got there.

RG III played well until injured and the redskins were coming off 4-12, 6-10, 5-11. He played well until injured so he actually supports the value of coaching in QB development.

 

[Boston Boxer]

Trade up to somewhere around #10. Draft DaVonta Smith. Trade for Jimmy.

D. Smith/Agholar/Bourne/Meyers
J. Smith/Henry/Asiasi
Harris/Michel/White
JG/Cam

Not bad.

i would back that 1000% but i just dont trust Jimmy G to stay healthy. If he could stay healthy, he is the perfect QB for us. I'm just weary of the injuries.

 

[Boston Boxer]

my sources (wink wink) are telling me...

They draft Horn CB at #15
They draft QB Jamie Newman day 3

 

[Hyped]

Patriots trade #15 to Baltimore for their two firsts....take two of CB/OT/LB/WR.

Day 2...Patriots trade #46 and something to move up to #34-#36 and take Kellen Mond or Davis Mills.

 

[Twentytothree]

How many top 10 QBs went to a team that has what the patriots do in terms of coaching, system, OL, running game, TEs, and defense and failed?

Well, how often do teams that do "what the patriots do in terms of coaching, system, OL, running game, TEs, and defense" actually pick in the top 10? In fact, how many teams are there in the NFL that fall into the "do what the Patriots do" category, by your count?

 

[Addictive]

Chicago do something desperate as the GM knows unless they make huge improvements this season he'll be out of a job. So either he'll acquire Jimmy G and overpay the 49ers bringing Jimmy back to Illinois. Or he'll mortgage future draft assets including 3 firsts to get into the top 10 to get Fields.

I don't see Bill trading up, hopefully this means a stud falls to us at 15 but I think we are more likely to trade down and try and get four or five players in the top 95 who can see the playing field this year.

 

[RDS11]

Ponder was drafted by a 6-10 team that had fired their hc and had Leslie Frazier as hc and Bill Musgrave as OC.

Goff went to a SB and wentz was an mvp candidate and both went to teams that stank when they got there.

RG III played well until injured and the redskins were coming off 4-12, 6-10, 5-11. He played well until injured so he actually supports the value of coaching in QB development.

My point exactly. Top-10 QB are drafted by bottom-10 teams, so your argument that top-10 QBs drafted by Patriots-like team never fails is not something that can be verified because it rarely happens.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Here’s a bold prediction:

Bill takes Asante Samuel Jr.