GM LOUNGE

[long distance]

Transitioning to LBs one instructive GM look at signing the top of LB market:

1. Don't do it.
Unless there is proven vet (known commodity pref. your own FA) in his prime who is dominant on his own just stay away, esp in weak LB market.
In 2018 KC signed Hitchens on 5/45-9apy-21.3 guaranteed on just two solid seasons w DAL surrounded with better talent. The signing was followed by 3 straight below average seasons on D with lesser talent around him. He had hardly any positive impact on the team performance.
2019 was one of the strongest LB markets (that reset the market significantly) . yet only 1 of top 5 LB FA signings had impact on his new team.
2020 was average LB market so some average players again got top contracts. 6 LBs got over 10M apy contracts and all but one saw significant drop in their impact and production. The only exception was Blake Martinez who went from iffy GB DL in front of him to one of the best DLs in the league @NYG.

2. Protect yourself from bias.
Interesting look at two big LB contracts that were signed as supposedly known commodities in 2019 and 2020: Mercilus and KVN.
Mercilus - HOU - extension - 4y/54M/18Mg
KVN - NE>MIA (Flores) - FA - 4y/51M/15Mg

While KVN's contract was much bigger head-scratcher . the detail in the contract revealed that it was at least much smarter/safer deal.
The construction of Mercilus 2019 contract not only protected him for 2 years but also triggered a fully guaranteed 3rd year (on 5th day of 2020 season) - just one of many malpractice GM decisions by BoB. On the other side KVN only had one guaranteed year with 2021 salary only being guaranteed on 5th day of the same League Year.

So the two deals that looked the same offered totally different GM outcomes: one being 3year expensive marriage and the other expensive one-nighter (that MIA could afford re their Cap situation). We can speculate that MIA GM gave in to Flores first hand evaluation/infatuation but kept the flexibility to satisfy his reservations. He knew KVN came to NE as below average LB who benefited greatly not only by coaching but BBs defensive system and specific defensive talent predicated on top NFL secondary. He was a solid piece in NE but not really impactful on his own. His by far best year was his contract year when he played alongside Trey Flowers, Hightower, Collins and with top NFL secondary incl. NFL defensive player of the year behind.

When BB was re-signing his own top LB (Hightower) - also top LB FA in 2017 projected at 12M apy (ranked #7 overall!) - he let him out there to examine the market, travel around the country and finally signed him to 4y/33.5M (reported 4y/43.5M) with 17M guaranteed. It was constructed as essentially 2y/14.5M with possible 2019 release leaving 7.5M dead money (signing bonus but no guarantees) that could be prorated over 2y with after june 1st designation.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

J Davis might be on the block. Half the fans there hate him the other thinks hes good. Limited but has the athleticism and physicality Bill likes. You just can't ask him to drop he might be someone to keep an eye on. If he is moved Parson, Collins, trade back might be likely options.

 

[jah]

Transitioning to LBs one instructive GM look at signing the top of LB market:

1. Don't do it.
Unless there is proven vet (known commodity pref. your own FA) in his prime who is dominant on his own just stay away, esp in weak LB market.
In 2018 KC signed Hitchens on 5/45-9apy-21.3 guaranteed on just two solid seasons w DAL surrounded with better talent. The signing was followed by 3 straight below average seasons on D with lesser talent around him. He had hardly any positive impact on the team performance.
2019 was one of the strongest LB markets (that reset the market significantly) . yet only 1 of top 5 LB FA signings had impact on his new team.
2020 was average LB market so some average players again got top contracts. 6 LBs got over 10M apy contracts and all but one saw significant drop in their impact and production. The only exception was Blake Martinez who went from iffy GB DL in front of him to one of the best DLs in the league @NYG.

2. Protect yourself from bias.
Interesting look at two big LB contracts that were signed as supposedly known commodities in 2019 and 2020: Mercilus and KVN.
Mercilus - HOU - extension - 4y/54M/18Mg
KVN - NE>MIA (Flores) - FA - 4y/51M/15Mg

While KVN's contract was much bigger head-scratcher . the detail in the contract revealed that it was at least much smarter/safer deal.
The construction of Mercilus 2019 contract not only protected him for 2 years but also triggered a fully guaranteed 3rd year (on 5th year of 2020 season) - just one of many malpractice GM decisions by BoB. On the other side KVN only had one guaranteed year with 2021 salary only being guaranteed on 5th day of the same League Year.

So the two deals that looked the same offered totally different GM outcomes: one being 3year expensive marriage and the other expensive one-nighter (that MIA could afford re their Cap situation). We can speculate that MIA GM gave in to Flores first hand evaluation/infatuation but kept the flexibility to satisfy his reservations. He knew KVN came to NE as below average LB who benefited greatly not only by coaching but BBs defensive system and specific defensive talent predicated on top NFL secondary. He was a solid piece in NE but not really impactful on his own. His by far best year was his contract year when he played alongside Trey Flowers, Hightower, Collins and with top NFL secondary incl. NFL defensive player of the year behind.

When BB was re-signing his own top LB (Hightower) - also top LB FA in 2017 projected at 12M apy (ranked #7 overall!) - he let him out there to examine the market, travel around the country and finally signed him to 4y/33.5M (reported 4y/43.5M) with 17M guaranteed. It was constructed as essentially 2y/14.5M with possible 2019 release leaving 7.5M dead money (signing bonus but no guarantees) that could be prorated over 2y with after june 1st designation.

I'm still trying to wrap my head around what happened with Hightower in 2017. In a league where players who demonstrated as much as he had consistently sign contracts for more than they're worth, Hightower inexplicably had to take a pretty team-friendly deal. Was it the dynamic of that specific free agency period? Was it fear of his injury history? I was going to guess maybe teams were wary of expecting a player to be as good for them as he was for us, but we see our players leave for huge money every single March.

 

[Sciz]

I'm still trying to wrap my head around what happened with Hightower in 2017. In a league where players who demonstrated as much as he had consistently sign contracts for more than they're worth, Hightower inexplicably had to take a pretty team-friendly deal. Was it the dynamic of that specific free agency period? Was it fear of his injury history? I was going to guess maybe teams were wary of expecting a player to be as good for them as he was for us, but we see our players leave for huge money every single March.

Reportedly, it wasn't his injury history (mostly knees), but that an MRI showed that his pec was partially torn and at increased risk of a full tear. That did happen 7 months later (knocking him out for the remainder of the 2017 season), so the concerns were apparently valid. That's a good example of how fans can only really look backwards at what injuries have already happened, but teams have additional information that can often better predict future injuries.

 

[micronin127]

When I think about our LBs from last year, and for the last decade really, the true shortcoming has always been coverage of RBs and TEs. this gets exacerbated when we cannot stop the run and put bigger LBs on the field to compensate. our CB/S coverage is way above average, but if easy 3rd down conversions are consistently surrendered by your weakest coverage link it wears down the defense.

What we have:
Hightower: leadership, stout/physical, pass rush (don't want him in coverage)
Bentley: stout/physical, leadership, slow, he is Hightower's backup/heir apparent, when baton got passed due to COVID was big dropoff
Uche: fast, good pass rush skills, some coverage skills (would a Van Noy reunion stunt his development?)
Jennings: stout/physical, slow, poor coverage skills
Hall: UDFA promoted to roster, fast riser and has good combination of speed/power, cheap depth
Winovich: pretty sure he will bulk up and become a Ninkovich-type DE rather than make a Bruschi-like transition from DE to ILB

I think we need more speed and coverage ability. Also, I am not thrilled about the Hightower/Bentley tandem with Hightower providing a few more years (tail end of career) and Bentley not looking like more than a backup/depth option.

ps: i still have nightmares about Peyton Manning throwing 2 TDs to the TE early in that AFC Championship game right over Jamie Collins head both times.
pps: when Russell Wilson led the comeback drive in SB49. first play was a wheel route to Marshawn Lynch... though we all know it wasn't a true comeback drive due to Malcolm Butler

 

[long distance]

When I think about our LBs from last year, and for the last decade really, the true shortcoming has always been coverage of RBs and TEs. this gets exacerbated when we cannot stop the run and put bigger LBs on the field to compensate. our CB/S coverage is way above average, but if easy 3rd down conversions are consistently surrendered by your weakest coverage link it wears down the defense.

What we have:
Hightower: leadership, stout/physical, pass rush (don't want him in coverage)
Bentley: stout/physical, leadership, slow, he is Hightower's backup/heir apparent, when baton got passed due to COVID was big dropoff
Uche: fast, good pass rush skills, some coverage skills (would a Van Noy reunion stunt his development?)
Jennings: stout/physical, slow, poor coverage skills
Hall: UDFA promoted to roster, fast riser and has good combination of speed/power, cheap depth
Winovich: pretty sure he will bulk up and become a Ninkovich-type DE rather than make a Bruschi-like transition from DE to ILB

I think we need more speed and coverage ability. Also, I am not thrilled about the Hightower/Bentley tandem with Hightower providing a few more years (tail end of career) and Bentley not looking like more than a backup/depth option.

ps: i still have nightmares about Peyton Manning throwing 2 TDs to the TE early in that AFC Championship game right over Jamie Collins head both times.
pps: when Russell Wilson led the comeback drive in SB49. first play was a wheel route to Marshawn Lynch... though we all know it wasn't a true comeback drive due to Malcolm Butler

Speed and coverage ability is not a need but an option. If your LB has speed and coverage but has limited ability to play forward (shoot gaps, tackle, hold the edge etc) he is useless bc every DB can do better job in coverage.

I do agree there are too many similar types of LBs on the roster and they have to complement them with different type. One complementary piece is already on the roster - Dugger. If he improves the backward game he'll be 3-down S/LB hybrid weapon every modern D can only wish for.

Searching for coverage in LBs is a bit of misconception to me. But i do hope they address speed & movement in space ability esp. lateral.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

ps: i still have nightmares about Peyton Manning throwing 2 TDs to the TE early in that AFC Championship game right over Jamie Collins head both times.
pps: when Russell Wilson led the comeback drive in SB49. first play was a wheel route to Marshawn Lynch... though we all know it wasn't a true comeback drive due to Malcolm Butler.

Me too. Do you get cold sweats too sometimes?

 

[ralmat55]

I’m really anxious to see what the Pats do with their Dline. Since Flowers and Brown left after the 2018 season and Pennel and Bennett didn’t work out, they’ve played way too light the last two seasons which has hurt their ability to stop the run and generate interior pass rush. It might have been necessitated by personnel, but it’s an area that significantly needs to improve.

Bill loves the versatility of LBs but what good is versatility if the LBs can’t cover or shed blocks. I’m hoping they sign and/or draft enough fatties to go back to the 3-3 or 4-2 they ran in 18 compared to the 2-4 they’ve used a majority of snaps the last couple of seasons. Have no problem playing Uche, Hall, Dugger or Phillips at LB if you have DTs and DEs good enough to keep Olineman from squaring them up.

 

[long distance]

LB POOL

Pretty thin FA group that will trap GMs into handing out big contracts to average players once again
Not deep Draft group either so not a good year to need starting LB - but better chance to find it there.


NE ROSTER

LB (8-9) - 54Hightower (31, 2021, $12.5/10), 51Bentley* (25, 2021, $1), 58Jennings* (24,2023,$1), 59Hall (24,2021,$0.8),
46Maluia* (22,2021,$0.8), 48Pinckney (23, futures)

NE FREE AGENTS

52Copeland (30)


FREE AGENTS top market: 18M-apy 2021 proj. FT=14.2M

Lavonte David, 31, TB ($12M) (M:3y/40) [PFF:13] — CLE
->Matt MIlano, 27, BUF [PFF:11] — CLE
->Jayon Brown, 26, TEN [PFF:11]
KJ Wright, 32, SEA [2y/12]
>Van Noy, 30, MIA (12.5) — cut — [M:2/12-16]
Perryman, 28, LAC (up&down) [PFF:2/13]
>Pierre-Louis, 30, WAS (6’0-230-4.5,rot.) [PFF:2]
Kendricks, 31, WAS (+speed)
>Anzalone, 27, NO
->Jarrad Davis, 26, DET (rot)
A.Williamson, 29, PIT (exNYJ) (+run) (2019-ACL)
BJ Goodson, 28, CLE [PFF:2/6]
>Todd Davis, 29, MIN (6’1-230)
>Eric Wilson, 27, MIN
->Grugier-Hill, 27, MIA ++ST
>M.Smith, 32, CLE (6’0-225) (SB-MVP>SEA+ST)
Bynes, 32, CIN
A.Walker, 26, IND
>McMillan, 25, LV
>D.Mayo, 28, NYG (2.5, 2.5) (vet min) +ST — cut —
Vigil, 28, LAC
Ragland, 28, DET (NEfit/have 3 similar)
Campbell, 28, ARI
Elandon Roberts, 27, MIA (knee)
Hewitt, 28, NYJ
Copeland, 30, NE
J.Thomas, 30, DAL
Biegel, MIA
Lee, 35, DAL
Irvin, 35, SEA
Riley, 27, PHI ++ST
N.Gerry, 26, PHI


POSSIBLE CUTS

[Jaylon Smith, 26, DAL (7.2-June2)
[J.Collins, 32, DET (9,10) — DET restructure
[McKinney, 29, HOU (6.4) — possible cut —
[LJ Fort, 31, BAL (2.2)
[Barr, 29, MIN (7.3) (inj.pect) — possible cut —
[Kwon Alexander, 27, NO (6’1-230) (achil.DEC) (13.2) — likely cut —


DRAFT

LB *Micah Parsons #11 Penn (6’3-244) - 1
LB *Nick Bolton #32 Mizzou (6’0-235) -1
OLB Zaven Collins #23 Tulsa (6’4-260) - 1
OLB Owusu-Koramoah #6 ND (6’2-216) - 1
OLB Jabril Cox #19 LSU (6’3-233) - D2
ILB Chazz Surratt #21 N Carolina (6’1-230) -
LB Justin Hilliard # Ohio St (6’0-227) -
ILB *Dylan Moses #32 Alabama (6’3-235) -
LB Jamin Davis #44 Kentucky (6’4-234) -
LB Monty Rice # Georgia (6’0-238) -
LB Pete Werner #20 Ohio St (6’2-242) - /++ST;
LB Baron Browning # Ohio St (6’3-241-10“) -

UDFA

LB KJ Britt #33 Auburn (6’0-240) -
LB Tuf Borland #32 Ohio St (6’0-230-10“) -
LB Grant Stuard #0 Houston (5’11-230) -
LB Derrick Barnes # Purdue (6’4-245) -


As always hopefully @BaconGrundleCandy can add/sort out Draft & UDFA if he can grab some time..

 

[venecol]

Matt Milano. Do it Bill. Make it happen.

 

[long distance]

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I've been a Milano fan forever. He was one of my priorities. He'll be overpaid but his skill set is unique and proven. I'm not drastically overpaying but fair market for him with Hightower is pretty intriguing, no?

Also like Beigel, Anzalone & Davis at the right price.

Draft - Collins is further along than Parsons in all areas but not doesn't quite explode like Parsons. I'll likely have him LB1. Big yes to Browning and JOK/Cox if we don't land Milano. I don't see them redundant to Dugger and would welcome either one in the 2nd/3rd.

Errol Thompson, Stuard and Barnes will grade out higher than udfa for me. I think they could be in play mid-late round. More traditional types for us except Stuard.

 

[micronin127]

If cut, Jaylon Smith is probably the best player we could get. Interesting that Micah Parsons is forecast at #11 and we pick at #15. We traded up to get Hightower when we already had Mayo, maybe we go get Parsons so that he can learn from Hightower.

I would trade for Jaylon Smith. He signed an extension in 2019 and is locked up through 2025. Cap hits are 7.2 / 9.2 / 11 / 11 / 12.5. Not bad for a LB that made Pro Bowl in 2019. Issue is Dallas only has 20M in cap space and needs to do something about Prescott. More likely is that Dallas converts most of the 7.2M to signing-bonus to create 4.5M in 2021 cap space and that keeps him off the market. I think we would have to offer at least a 2nd rounder this year and maybe another pick next year to get the player.

Top 100 Players of 2019: #61 Jaylon Smith (speed!)
** apologies for posting a link that includes NFL content and gets blocked. the video is easily found on YouTube.

 

[long distance]

I've been a Milano fan forever. He was one of my priorities. He'll be overpaid but his skill set is unique and proven. I'm not drastically overpaying but fair market for him with Hightower is pretty intriguing, no?

Also like Beigel, Anzalone & Davis at the right price.

Draft - Collins is further along than Parsons in all areas but not doesn't quite explode like Parsons. I'll likely have him LB1. Big yes to Browning and JOK/Cox if we don't land Milano. I don't see them redundant to Dugger and would welcome either one in the 2nd/3rd.

Errol Thompson, Stuard and Barnes will grade out higher than udfa for me. I think they could be in play mid-late round. More traditional types for us except Stuard.

Milano was an early binkie as well - to the point i was wondering i was missing something thinking he can play in NE & NFL since nobody even mentioned him when i stumbled across him. But i never thought he would become above average 3-down player..

Still, i wouldn't pay the projected asking price - not even close. He had a down year so maybe price comes down but unless its closer to 5-6M range i just would not do it. He would be a nice complementary piece to the LBs on the roster but probably not 3-down player for BB.

If Hightower is indeed good to go i dont see LB as a need in FA. Bentley had a great start as a rookie before injury and Jennings deserves one full preseason to see what he can do (and BB likes him a lot). You have Hall in Roberts role and Dugger and Phillips in predominant nickel and dimes. When they fix DL properly same LBs will show better performances by default.

As mentioned earlier id stay out of top LB FAs bc its mostly a recipe for hangover esp. in a weak class:

GM LOUNGE

Transitioning to LBs one instructive GM look at signing the top of LB market: 1. Don't do it. Unless there is proven vet (known commodity pref. your own FA) in his prime who is dominant on his own just stay away, esp in weak LB market. In 2018 KC signed Hitchens on 5/45-9apy-21.3 guaranteed on...

www.patsfans.com

So i hope and expect opportunistic approach to this position in FA by BB.

 

[micronin127]

Buffalo only has 2M in cap space, but they have a lot of ways to create cap space by converting base to bonus for players like Diggs. They like Milano too and will pay to keep him, so we would likely have to overpay to get him.

We have to make Milano an offer and likely also have to bow out when the price gets too high. If that means Buffalo doesn't get a hometown discount... well that would be a shame.

 

[patfanken]

Milano was an early binkie as well - to the point i was wondering i was missing something thinking he can play in NE & NFL since nobody even mentioned him when i stumbled across him. But i never thought he would become above average 3-down player..

Still, i wouldn't pay the projected asking price - not even close. He had a down year so maybe price comes down but unless its closer to 5-6M range i just would not do it. He would be a nice complementary piece to the LBs on the roster but probably not 3-down player for BB.

If Hightower is indeed good to go i dont see LB as a need in FA. Bentley had a great start as a rookie before injury and Jennings deserves one full preseason to see what he can do (and BB likes him a lot). You have Hall in Roberts role and Dugger and Phillips in predominant nickel and dimes. When they fix DL properly same LBs will show better performances by default.

As mentioned earlier id stay out of top LB FAs bc its mostly a recipe for hangover esp. in a weak class:

GM LOUNGE

Transitioning to LBs one instructive GM look at signing the top of LB market: 1. Don't do it. Unless there is proven vet (known commodity pref. your own FA) in his prime who is dominant on his own just stay away, esp in weak LB market. In 2018 KC signed Hitchens on 5/45-9apy-21.3 guaranteed on...

www.patsfans.com

So i hope and expect opportunistic approach to this position in FA by BB.

LB is a really big need this off season in BOTH the draft and FA. You really over value Bently who has proven over the last few years to nothing more than a back up one dimensional run defender. He's way too slow to be anything more than that.

With or without Stephan Gilmore the Pats will have one of the better and deeper secondaries. So in the FA market the Pats have to look at the DL and LB's first. Clearly there is a need for a run stopper in the middle who can play nose AND DT as the Pats will be multiple on the DL. Fortunately there are several guys who fit that bill starting (IMHO) with Jurrel Casey who can be a 3 down player and any position on the inside. If all you are looking for is a one or 2 down run stopper a guy like Harrison will be there for short money,

At LB the need is for speed, speed and more speed. Hightower will anchor and lead the LB corps, but he still is what he is, a smart big run stopper who is decent in coverage....FOR...HIS limited speed. But what he needs next to him is a guy like Milano or Bowser etc/

But this is how I would look at FA if I were GM.. I need to REBUILD this roster to fit the current game. Despite the large cap space this is at best a 2 year process. So I go back to my 2001 process, where I used that off season to add depth and size throughout the roster with a lot of middle of the road signings. But now the game has changed, though the basic philosophy hasn't. Instead of SIZE just substitute SPEED.. So I see the Pats suing THIS off season to use that large cap space to restock the middle and end of their roster with solid NFL players who may not ring anyone's bell, but will add depth and speed to the roster.

REMEMBER that 2022 will likely see a huge jump in the cap number with the new media deal likely to hit AND the revenue from filled stadiums likely this fall. So regardless of how much the Pats spend this off season, there is very likely to be a lot of cap space available again next year as well. There idea here is to use the fact that there will be a lot of teams forced to lose good players due to their cap situation, the market FA market will be larger than usual PLUS the teams with cap space to be buyers will be smaller, thus there WILL be a bunch of good bargains out there. In my plan, I use this year to get a quantity to good solid players throughout my program, and NOT over spend on just a few of the top FA's in this market, with the idea that I in the NEXT off season, I will find myself with a lot of cap space again,, BUT with a lot fewer holes to fill, so it will be in 2022 that the Pats should go out and look at the top players in the FA market.

Just a thought

 

[long distance]

LB is a really big need this off season in BOTH the draft and FA. You really over value Bently who has proven over the last few years to nothing more than a back up one dimensional run defender. He's way too slow to be anything more than that.

With or without Stephan Gilmore the Pats will have one of the better and deeper secondaries. So in the FA market the Pats have to look at the DL and LB's first. Clearly there is a need for a run stopper in the middle who can play nose AND DT as the Pats will be multiple on the DL. Fortunately there are several guys who fit that bill starting (IMHO) with Jurrel Casey who can be a 3 down player and any position on the inside. If all you are looking for is a one or 2 down run stopper a guy like Harrison will be there for short money,

At LB the need is for speed, speed and more speed. Hightower will anchor and lead the LB corps, but he still is what he is, a smart big run stopper who is decent in coverage....FOR...HIS limited speed. But what he needs next to him is a guy like Milano or Bowser etc/

I can understand fans wanting other linebackers but that doesn't constitute a need let alone really big need. We're trying to look at the roster building from GM perspective here.

Patriots are returning all of their starting/rotational linebackers: Bentley, Jennings, Hall and Uche - that i forgot to include earlier - and on top they are adding one of the best LBs in the league in Hightower. They are also returning both situational/hybrid/subpackage LBs in Dugger and Phillips.
To classify this position as a need from a GM perspective is quite a big stretch. Look at other 2020 rosters and you'll see half of the league with much less. You can of course want to upgrade - and i wouldn't mind at all don't get me wrong - but i think BB will keep most if not all of the young guys he signed and look forward to work with them in a full preseason. I know asking fans for patience is futile but i am looking forward to see development of home talent.

I can certainly join your wish for some added speed/mobility at LB but they did address exactly this with the two top picks of last year's draft. Both Uche and Dugger should see significant increase of snaps continuing the trend from the end of last season and that will make the unit faster etc.

One thing we should keep in mind is that LB play was significantly hindered by abysmal DL. Now there we can talk about really big needs esp. since almost all starters there are Free Agents. As discussed earlier Pats have every chance to build a dominant, versatile DL incl. early downs edge defenders and if they manage to do that than current LB group will look quite solid (counting top DB unit behind them).

f.e. (similar to what @patsfanfromoversea suggested earlier)

Hightower/Jennings - FA DE (Wolfe/Hyder)/Guy - FA DT (Tomlinson) - FA DE (Bowser)/Winovich
Dugger .................. Hightower/Jennings/Bentley .......... Uche

This is a stout line with enough speed and blitzing threat at both sides. Most players here also offer plenty of versatility to move them around as you want.

Again DL and DE are objectively big needs with only Cowart and Winowich returning. If you meet need with opportunity to seriously upgrade DL-DE then LB can easily become an afterthought. Why throw away young players that you have on the roster and showed ability to play the position & invest in questionable upgrades (look at the history of top LB FA around the league) instead of investing those resources in building dominant DL that will make your LBs on cheap contracts better?

Im not saying they should or will not look at upgrade - just going about it from the position of opportunity and not need.
(I wouldn't be surprised if they take another one high in the draft since there are a few BB would absolutely love)

But this is how I would look at FA if I were GM.. I need to REBUILD this roster to fit the current game. Despite the large cap space this is at best a 2 year process. So I go back to my 2001 process, where I used that off season to add depth and size throughout the roster with a lot of middle of the road signings. But now the game has changed, though the basic philosophy hasn't. Instead of SIZE just substitute SPEED.. So I see the Pats suing THIS off season to use that large cap space to restock the middle and end of their roster with solid NFL players who may not ring anyone's bell, but will add depth and speed to the roster.

REMEMBER that 2022 will likely see a huge jump in the cap number with the new media deal likely to hit AND the revenue from filled stadiums likely this fall. So regardless of how much the Pats spend this off season, there is very likely to be a lot of cap space available again next year as well. There idea here is to use the fact that there will be a lot of teams forced to lose good players due to their cap situation, the market FA market will be larger than usual PLUS the teams with cap space to be buyers will be smaller, thus there WILL be a bunch of good bargains out there. In my plan, I use this year to get a quantity to good solid players throughout my program, and NOT over spend on just a few of the top FA's in this market, with the idea that I in the NEXT off season, I will find myself with a lot of cap space again,, BUT with a lot fewer holes to fill, so it will be in 2022 that the Pats should go out and look at the top players in the FA market.

Just a thought

Agreed. Pats will be big players in 2022 FA almost regardless of what they do this year since they are - as mentioned in this thread before - #1 in effective cap space for 2022 by far and unlike most teams they will not put a bunch of dead money to 2022/2023 so their position will be even stronger. But since this is a bargain year they should use every opportunity - even a few close to the top of the market in bargain positions - when they present themselves.

Going by your plan of a 2y FA build that is just one more reason to give young players like the current young LB corps a full chance to prove themselves. But certainly bring in some solid competition for TC in the bargain part of the market.

 

[50-yard-line]

I can understand fans wanting other linebackers but that doesn't constitute a need let alone really big need. We're trying to look at the roster building from GM perspective here.

Patriots are returning all of their starting/rotational linebackers: Bentley, Jennings, Hall and Uche that i forgot to include earlier and they are adding one of the best LBs in the league in Hightower. They are also returning both situational/hybrid/subpackage LBs in Dugger and Phillips. To classify this position as a need from a GM perspective is quite a big stretch. Look at other 2020 rosters and you'll see half of the league with much less. You can of course want to upgrade - and i wouldn't mind at all don't get me wrong - but i think BB will keep most if not all of the young guys he signed and look forward to work with them in a full preseason. I know asking fans for patience is futile but i am looking forward to see development of home talent.

I can certainly join your wish for some added speed/mobility at LB but they did address exactly this with the two top picks of last year's draft. Both Uche and Dugger should see significant increase of snaps continuing the trend from the end of last season and that will make the unit faster etc.

One thing we should keep in mind is that LB play was significantly hindered by abysmal DL. Now there we can talk about really big needs esp. since almost all starters there are Free Agents. As discussed earlier Pats have every chance to build a dominant, versatile DL incl. early downs edge defenders and if they manage to do that than current LB group will look quite solid (counting top DB unit behind them).

f.e. (similar to what @patsfanfromoversea suggested earlier)

Hightower/Jennings - FA DE (Wolfe/Hyder)/Guy - FA DT (Tomlinson) - FA DE (Bowser)/Winovich
Dugger .................. Hightower/Jennings/Bentley .......... Uche

This is a stout line with enough speed and blitzing threat at both sides. Most players here also offer plenty of versatility to move them around as you want.

Again DL and DE are objectively big needs with only Cowart and Winowich returning. If you meet need with opportunity to seriously upgrade DL-DE then LB can easily become an afterthought.

Im not saying they should or will not look at upgrade - just going about it from the position of opportunity and not need.
(I wouldn't be surprised if they take another one high in the draft since there are a few BB would absolutely love)




Agreed. Pats will be big players in 2022 FA almost regardless of what they do this year since they are - as mentioned in this thread before - #1 in effective cap space for 2022 by far and unlike most teams they will not put a bunch of dead money to 2022/2023 so their position will be even stronger. But since this is a bargain year they should use every opportunity - even a few close to the top of the market in bargain positions - when they present themselves.

Going by your plan of a 2y FA build that is just one more reason to give young players like the current young LB corps a full chance to prove themselves. But certainly bring in some solid competition for TC in the bargain part of the market.

I think their DL-DE rebuild has to happen in FA. There are a lot of good college guys from what I've seen or read, but no sure things there. While I'd love them to draft a couple of the players, I wouldn't want them depending on them right away.

Pats in FA should be getting:
OFFENSE
QB - duh.
WR - They really should grab a couple of the good ones out there, even with a deep draft. I love Higgins, Samuel, Davis...
TE - Bring in a vet like Rudolph, at the least. Get a #1 if you can.
OL - Try to keep Andrews and Thuney (which I doubt); otherwise replace with a young talent.
RB - Bargain hunting only. Michel, Harris, Taylor, and Bolden are gtg.

DEFENSE
NT - they NEED a big, proven guy in the middle. Prime FA pickup.
DL/DE - Hopefully they get Guy or Butler back, but if not, they need a really good ONE or a decent pair. Judon, please.
LB - I doubt they go here in FA. I'd like Milano a lot, but not if the price isn't right. Exception would be Van Noy if they can bring him back.
DB - Even if Gilmore leaves, i don't expect this to be a FA hit, unless it's a buy-right situation.

 

[patfanken]

I can understand fans wanting other linebackers but that doesn't constitute a need let alone really big need. We're trying to look at the roster building from GM perspective here.

Patriots are returning all of their starting/rotational linebackers: Bentley, Jennings, Hall and Uche - that i forgot to include earlier - and on top they are adding one of the best LBs in the league in Hightower. They are also returning both situational/hybrid/subpackage LBs in Dugger and Phillips.
To classify this position as a need from a GM perspective is quite a big stretch. Look at other 2020 rosters and you'll see half of the league with much less. You can of course want to upgrade - and i wouldn't mind at all don't get me wrong - but i think BB will keep most if not all of the young guys he signed and look forward to work with them in a full preseason. I know asking fans for patience is futile but i am looking forward to see development of home talent.

I can certainly join your wish for some added speed/mobility at LB but they did address exactly this with the two top picks of last year's draft. Both Uche and Dugger should see significant increase of snaps continuing the trend from the end of last season and that will make the unit faster etc.

One thing we should keep in mind is that LB play was significantly hindered by abysmal DL. Now there we can talk about really big needs esp. since almost all starters there are Free Agents. As discussed earlier Pats have every chance to build a dominant, versatile DL incl. early downs edge defenders and if they manage to do that than current LB group will look quite solid (counting top DB unit behind them).

f.e. (similar to what @patsfanfromoversea suggested earlier)

Hightower/Jennings - FA DE (Wolfe/Hyder)/Guy - FA DT (Tomlinson) - FA DE (Bowser)/Winovich
Dugger .................. Hightower/Jennings/Bentley .......... Uche

This is a stout line with enough speed and blitzing threat at both sides. Most players here also offer plenty of versatility to move them around as you want.

Again DL and DE are objectively big needs with only Cowart and Winowich returning. If you meet need with opportunity to seriously upgrade DL-DE then LB can easily become an afterthought. Why throw away young players that you have on the roster and showed ability to play the position & invest in questionable upgrades (look at the history of top LB FA around the league) instead of investing those resources in building dominant DL that will make your LBs on cheap contracts better?

Im not saying they should or will not look at upgrade - just going about it from the position of opportunity and not need.
(I wouldn't be surprised if they take another one high in the draft since there are a few BB would absolutely love)




Agreed. Pats will be big players in 2022 FA almost regardless of what th ey do this year since they are - as mentioned in this thread before - #1 in effective cap space for 2022 by far and unlike most teams they will not put a bunch of dead money to 2022/2023 so their position will be even stronger. But since this is a bargain year they should use every opportunity - even a few close to the top of the market in bargain positions - when they present themselves.

Going by your plan of a 2y FA build that is just one more reason to give young players like the current young LB corps a full chance to prove themselves. But certainly bring in some solid competition for TC in the bargain part of the market.

While I like (and endorse) your DL additions though I might add different names, the thought is the same. However I STILL think you are overly optimistic about the LB area. Bently Hall and Jennings are all limited and marginal NFL players. Remember THIS is the year to add DEPTH as well as upgrade starters at the LB postion.

Then we add the additional complication which is, what exactly constitutes a LB these days. Can the Pats get by with SS's playing the position, or do they need to add someone who can stay on the field all three downs. Just look at the effect Devon White had on the Bucs D. I doubt there is his like at the #15 spot or even FA, BUT w (e can vastly improve our 3 down defense with a Milano or his like

That being said among our biggest needs, QB, TE, WR, DL, and LB, I'd rate LB as the 5th most important, BUT it should not be disregarded when there will be an vast upgrade at #15 and/or in FA at reasonable prices.

I think BB looks at these rebuilds as 3 year projects, I think the 2001 success came as big a surprise to Bill as the rest of us. Just as the disappointing 2002 season and successful seasons of 2003 and 4 where probably what he expected.

We have the long term cap space and draft picks to build a first rate roster over the next 3 years. If we are lucky enough to develop or obtain a top; 15 QB, we will be competing for Titles sooner rather than later in year 3. We will clearly be a better team than last, though so will all our opponents. It seemed 8 of games will be against teams who had 11 or more wins last season, so next year, I'm I'd be disappointed with anything less than 8 wins and if we catch a break up to 10. I would guess that that is what Bill thought about the 2001 team going into the season.....and then caught lightening in a bottle in the playoffs. (much like the Giants did in 07)

So my expectations for this year is to see a better team than last year regardless of their record. Then playoffs in 2022 and competitive superbowl contenders after that.

 

[p8ryts]

Me too. Do you get cold sweats too sometimes?

I do. Also when I see Duron jump over the prone receiver instead of knocking the ball away