Game 4 Bucs @ Saints
This game comes down to two questions. The first is, are the Bucs playing better than the last 2 times they faced the Saints? That seems to be a yes. The second question is, are they going to attack with a different game plan than they did the last time? Offensively I think so. Defensively it is unlikely. That could be a huge problem.
First lets talk Saints. The are the most balanced team left in the playoffs. The only team that does everything at a high level. They can pass, run, stop the pass, stop the run, and are well coached. There isn't an easy place to attack. This puts the pressure on the opponent trying to beat them to out play them with their strengths. As it so happens, Tampa is one of the best teams equipped to do this.
As good as the Saints are all around, they aren't perfect. Brees isn't the QB he use to be. He is still accurate, but his long passes float up in the air a little more than he'd like. This isn't something that can easily be attacked though. It has been an issue for him the past 2 years on and off, and he has rarely been punished for it. Usually cause he can time and place his ball well, and his guys get separation deep as the opponents feel the need to invest resources near the LOS. Which against the Saints, you have to do.
The Saints need to just keep doing what has worked until the Bucs prove they can do something different. The Saints DL needs to get pressure, which they can, while their OL needs to protect Brees from the blitz, which they've shown they can. If they do those things and don't make any big mistakes they will put the Bucs in an almost impossible situation match up wise and scheme wise. Almost, but not quite.
As for the Bucs, since you can't attack a weakness, you hit them over and over again with what you do best. Brady and those high end skill players. The Bucs need to play this game differently than they have any other, which they can. Go hurry up early and often. Short throws, screens and crossers. Get the RBs involved in the passing game. A more 'Brady like' game, which is what they've been doing more of recently. Pass again and again in a hurry up to tire out the Saints DL. The key to this game should be Brown, Godwin and Fournette catching passes and getting YAC.
On the defensive side of the ball, they need to be more willing to change up what they have been doing. But if not, the pressure needs to get home. A few stunts would be nice. They can't give up those big soft underneath dump ups they have been as much.
On the surface this match very much favors the Saints, but as I looked deeper into the Saints I noticed some issues. Since that Bucs game in week 9, the wheels have come off the Saints offense a little. It was on display during the playoffs vs Chicago too. The point totals don't always show it. But they're drives have stalled, where before having back to back to back long TD drives was common for them. They have become more and more depended on turnovers to create short field opportunities and have punted more. They had an amazing offensive day vs the Vikings and scored 52. But when a team lets you run 45 times for 265 yards that will happen. It had more to do with the Vikings than than the Saints. Outside of that one game, they haven't looked as sharp.
They got 29 vs KC with 2 4th quarter TDs with KC playing a little soft at the point in the game. The week after they scored 33 in the final game vs Carolina But then again, a lot of short fields and turnovers. 5 interceptions to be precise. 3 from some no name back up. When you REALLY look at it, outside of that Vikings game where the Viking's run D didn't show up, they haven't been super impressive offensively and most of the teams they played didn't have particularly good defenses.
They've scored 27, 24, 31, 21, 21, 29, 52 33 and 21 points this past week vs the Bears with all their weapons back and healthy. Their only 30+ games were against a Broncos team without a QB, a Carolina team which tossed 5 ints, and the Vikings who got run like almost no team I've ever seen. The offense the Saints are bringing onto the field is more likely to score under 30 than over 30 as long as the Bucs don't help them.
Bucs 31 Saints 24 - The Bucs offense will get the job done just enough against a very solid, though not amazing Saints D. The injury to one of their Guards will be an issue, but it isn't their best guard this time. With their offense currently playing the style they are, they're better equipped to move the ball on NO. On defense, they need to avoid giving up huge plays or letting Karama kill them underneath. The offense the Saints are bringing onto the field is much more likely to score under 30 than over it as long as the Bucs don't help them. They did well for the most part in both their games. They Saints wouldn't have scored more than 30 in either without the help of short fields or defensive scores. They just need to keep doing what they've done the last few games against a worst Saints offense and they can hold them down.
This game is entirely in the Bucs hands, and mostly the offense's hands. If they play a mostly clean game and score 30 or more I don't see many scenarios where the Saints win. Then again, the Saints are pretty good at making big plays happen, so they have a good chance.
