Which QB should we target in the draft?

[upstater1]

On the negative side, they say Wilson is a rich, entitled brat who rather than being a leader, is a selfish know-it-all - his parents are a pain to deal with too.

What the ???? LOL. A little bit of a Rosen vibe there, but where the heck does that come from?

I really don't like the lack of competition for judging Wilson. It's a problem. He may be an excellent QB down the road when he develops. But I hesitate to take him that high.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

I don’t even care I’d still trade up for him As long as his balls don’t hit the ground.
He doesn’t break the law BB can fix this kid.
Same thing was said about Aaron Rodgers

 

[Steve102]

What the ???? LOL. A little bit of a Rosen vibe there, but where the heck does that come from?

I really don't like the lack of competition for judging Wilson. It's a problem. He may be an excellent QB down the road when he develops. But I hesitate to take him that high.

2021 NFL Draft Prospects: Quarterbacks – WalterFootball

walterfootball.com

I was quite surprised to read that.

 

[NYCPATS4LIFE]

First and foremost, no Gators. Ever. They suck in the league. They never work out here.

Now that that is out of the way, I really like Wilson but I think we would have to really sell out to get high enough to draft him. Lance I would be cautiously optimistic as I feel like he is a complete boom or bust. Not very high on Mac Jones as he plays on an NFL roster already. Is he really projected to go early in the draft?

Note: I have no idea how to evaluate college QB's as I thought Mahomes would be a huge bust.

Josh Allen was boom or bust. How’s he doing these days? Lance is a very good prospect despite the one year. I like the way he goes through his reads.

 

[Username]

No screwing around would be doing what we did last year where we let a huge need have a run right in front of us and just hoped we would be lucky enough to get one of the last guys and then trade out when the last good WR was picked right before us.

If you think someone can be your guy, you go get him

Trey Lance is an absolutely massive gamble for anyone to take. Let alone a team with as many needs and holes to fix as the Patriots have. To move up in the draft, and to use whatever capital that would take, to draft a very raw QB who has played one year of college football in the FCS, would be crazy in my opinion.

That's not to say he won't be a good NFL QB, but it's just too much of a gamble, especially when you talk about moving up to get him, because the bust potential is huge.

In any case I think Carolina pick him at 9 and sit him behind Bridgewater for a couple of years.

 

[lancerman]

Trey Lance is an absolutely massive gamble for anyone to take. Let alone a team with as many needs and holes to fix as the Patriots have. To move up in the draft, and to use whatever capital that would take, to draft a very raw QB who has played one year of college football in the FCS, would be crazy in my opinion.

That's not to say he won't be a good NFL QB, but it's just too much of a gamble, especially when you talk about moving up to get him, because the bust potential is huge.

In any case I think Carolina pick him at 9 and sit him behind Bridgewater for a couple of years.

Any first round QB you draft is going to be a gamble. You can fill as many holes as you want, but no QB means it’s going to come up short. Trust me I think most people would have been cool losing the picks that drafted Dugger and Jennings if we got Jefferson or Lamb

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

First and foremost, no Gators. Ever. They suck in the league. They never work out here.

Now that that is out of the way, I really like Wilson but I think we would have to really sell out to get high enough to draft him. Lance I would be cautiously optimistic as I feel like he is a complete boom or bust. Not very high on Mac Jones as he plays on an NFL roster already. Is he really projected to go early in the draft?

Note: I have no idea how to evaluate college QB's as I thought Mahomes would be a huge bust.

Well these people get paid to write and talk about the draft ...

Matt Miller had Trubisky QB1, 14th overall. Miller had him like QB5 or 6. He had Brad Kaaya in front of him. Daniel Jeremiah didn't have him in the top 50, had Kizer, Trubisky & Watson. Mayock had him QB3. McShay had him QB3. Kiper had him QB2 with Trubisky QB1. Zierlein had Trubisky QB1.

I try not to focus on one player and look at the whole big board but people had him all over the place.

 

[upstater1]

Any first round QB you draft is going to be a gamble. You can fill as many holes as you want, but no QB means it’s going to come up short. Trust me I think most people would have been cool losing the picks that drafted Dugger and Jennings if we got Jefferson or Lamb

The problem here is his competition. Passing in some of these leagues against defenses that have all the resistance of air. Watching highlights you see some of the passes from Wilson and Lance completed but you also notice the DBs moving at a snail's pace.

That doesn't mean you stay away from them in the first round. If you feel strong about them, you take them. I'm no QB guru. I thought Sam Bradford was going to be fantastic. But I did watch Favre in the Senior Bowl and it was pretty clear he had it. But he too was coming from aschool that played questionable competition in CUSA. It's a mystery for any northeasterner to see that Marino dropped to the bottom of the first round. He was a stellar college player oozing talent. Aaron Rodgers also showed great arm strength and touch. Something weird happened to him in that draft. He was ahead of Alex Smith until the approach to gameday. I read way out rumors about his sexuality before that draft.

Anyhow, with Josh Allen and Favre, they made quite an impact. But they had physical gifts that were outlier. If you've got an average NFL arm and come from those schools, you're going to need time to develop.

Also remember, this is Allens 3rd year.

 

[Boston Boxer]

I agree about Jones in the 2nd round, his 77% completion rate and 36/4 TD vs int. is worthy of note. He is also coming from a great system in Al.

Saban and BB are old friends so he can rely on Nick's advice..

First round has to be TE or WR..

I agree. either Pitts, Smith, or Waddle in the first. Would even consider Toney as well. we need speed and production on Offense. If Jones is there in the 2nd, i would take him there. I am leaning to a FA QB so maybe see what Brissett costs

 

[KDPPatsfan85]

My newest mock...

 

[patsinthesnow]

Trey Lance is a #1 overall caliber prospect in another draft.

• Arguably the strongest arm. Throws 55+ with a flick of the wrist
• 0 INTs in 287 passes as a 19 year old
• 6'4 226 & is mobile - also has trucking ability
• The youngest QB of the big 4 - 21 year old rookie

He doesn't have great accuracy but decision making is more important in today's NFL. Mahomes, Allen & Herbert miss their fair share of passes but are top 10 QBs due to elite physical traits making their margin of error greater than the average starting QB. You could say this applies to Watson, Jackson & Murray too.

The entire playbook would be open with someone like him. A QB with a great deep ball along with our run game would make PA in the middle of the field a staple of the offense.

 

[NYCPATS4LIFE]

The problem here is his competition. Passing in some of these leagues against defenses that have all the resistance of air. Watching highlights you see some of the passes from Wilson and Lance completed but you also notice the DBs moving at a snail's pace.

That doesn't mean you stay away from them in the first round. If you feel strong about them, you take them. I'm no QB guru. I thought Sam Bradford was going to be fantastic. But I did watch Favre in the Senior Bowl and it was pretty clear he had it. But he too was coming from aschool that played questionable competition in CUSA. It's a mystery for any northeasterner to see that Marino dropped to the bottom of the first round. He was a stellar college player oozing talent. Aaron Rodgers also showed great arm strength and touch. Something weird happened to him in that draft. He was ahead of Alex Smith until the approach to gameday. I read way out rumors about his sexuality before that draft.

Anyhow, with Josh Allen and Favre, they made quite an impact. But they had physical gifts that were outlier. If you've got an average NFL arm and come from those schools, you're going to need time to develop.

Also remember, this is Allens 3rd year.

Lance doesn’t have an average arm. Don’t know what you talking about. Same for Wilson.

 

[lancerman]

The problem here is his competition. Passing in some of these leagues against defenses that have all the resistance of air. Watching highlights you see some of the passes from Wilson and Lance completed but you also notice the DBs moving at a snail's pace.

That doesn't mean you stay away from them in the first round. If you feel strong about them, you take them. I'm no QB guru. I thought Sam Bradford was going to be fantastic. But I did watch Favre in the Senior Bowl and it was pretty clear he had it. But he too was coming from aschool that played questionable competition in CUSA. It's a mystery for any northeasterner to see that Marino dropped to the bottom of the first round. He was a stellar college player oozing talent. Aaron Rodgers also showed great arm strength and touch. Something weird happened to him in that draft. He was ahead of Alex Smith until the approach to gameday. I read way out rumors about his sexuality before that draft.

Anyhow, with Josh Allen and Favre, they made quite an impact. But they had physical gifts that were outlier. If you've got an average NFL arm and come from those schools, you're going to need time to develop.

Also remember, this is Allens 3rd year.

The problem is the other option is that you think he’s someone you would like but you sit and let someone else take the gamble and now you are left with having to decide if you even want to use your 15th overall on possibly the 5th or 6th best QB in the draft. And if you don’t, every team now has a chance to grab one of them in the end of the 1st or in the 2nd and now you are left without a quality prospect and are looking at another Stidham or Hoyer type

You don’t have luxury to be passive at that position. Nobody else will be

 

[NYCPATS4LIFE]

Trey Lance is a #1 overall caliber prospect in another draft.

• Arguably the strongest arm. Throws 55+ with a flick of the wrist
• 0 INTs in 287 passes as a 19 year old
• 6'4 226 & is mobile - also has trucking ability
• The youngest QB of the big 4 - 21 year old rookie

He doesn't have great accuracy but decision making is more important in today's NFL. Mahomes, Allen & Herbert miss their fair share of passes but are top 10 QBs due to elite physical traits making their margin of error greater than the average starting QB. You could say this applies to Watson, Jackson & Murray too.

The entire playbook would be open with someone like him. A QB with a great deep ball along with our run game would make PA in the middle of the field a staple of the offense.

Lance completed 66.9 or his passes. We shall see. I really like the kid. I think he can be a very good quarterback.

 

[upstater1]

Lance doesn’t have an average arm. Don’t know what you talking about. Same for Wilson.

NFL arm. Didn't say college arm. Many of the QBs in the league have very strong arms.

Allen, Haskins, Nick Foles, Mahomes, Flacco, Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Brady, Wentz, Roethlisberger, Herbert, Murray, Baker Mayfield, etc. There are a lot of strong arms in the NFL.

Then there are backups in the NFL who people were high on because they had very strong arms, like Jacob Eason.

 

[upstater1]

The problem is the other option is that you think he’s someone you would like but you sit and let someone else take the gamble and now you are left with having to decide if you even want to use your 15th overall on possibly the 5th or 6th best QB in the draft. And if you don’t, every team now has a chance to grab one of them in the end of the 1st or in the 2nd and now you are left without a quality prospect and are looking at another Stidham or Hoyer type

You don’t have luxury to be passive at that position. Nobody else will be

This is why there are so many QB busts in the draft. Teams elevate 3rd rounders into the 1st.

We see it every year.

I don't like Tua down in Miami much. He was elevated.
Dwayne Haskins? A reach.
Josh Rosen too. A lot of people talked about how they wouldn't draft these guys early.
Trubisky, Paxton Lynch, Mariota, Bortles, EJ Manuel.

I'm not listing busts like Winston here, because everyone liked them, and they deserved to go very high.

I'm listing guys who had lots of questions and who were elevated.

It's a 50% hit rate in the first round.

 

[lancerman]

This is why there are so many QB busts in the draft. Teams elevate 3rd rounders into the 1st.

We see it every year.

I don't like Tua down in Miami much. He was elevated.
Dwayne Haskins? A reach.
Josh Rosen too. A lot of people talked about how they wouldn't draft these guys early.
Trubisky, Paxton Lynch, Mariota, Bortles, EJ Manuel.

I'm not listing busts like Winston here, because everyone liked them, and they deserved to go very high.

I'm listing guys who had lots of questions and who were elevated.

It's a 50% hit rate in the first round.

The problem is the majority of QB hits are takin in the first half of the first round. So even with extra elevation, that’s where you still go to find the best success rate.

The math has been done on this. The best success rate is first half of first round. Once you leave the first round it’s less than 50% success and then after that it goes to 25% and then hovers to near nothing in the 4th and after.

The fact is unless you have one if the top 5 picks, you are likely going to either reach for a QB or wait and still be in later rounds looking at reaches until you are getting to guys that are complete and total crapshoots that have near no shot at making it.

If you think Lance is a second or third round QB, he just won’t be around by then and you’ll be looking at a 3rd or 4th round QB. Once you get to that pick.

Someone is going to make that gamble and as the saying goes “you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take”.

 

[jdlboot14]

Fact is, drafting is an educated guess. Certain positions get trendy leading up to it, then everyone gets panicked and makes a mid-round talent go much higher - resulting in him being called a bust. It always happens with QBs. I'm not sure which guy I'd want, but I'd rather get a young vet who hasn't had the system around him to succeed. And use the draft for instant difference makers - TE, DL, DB, OL. Any other position rookie won't play for the Pats. Not QB, WR or LB

 

[Ross12]

My newest mock...View attachment 29697

Is that realistic compensation for #6? I’d do that in a heartbeat for Wilson... Sign Robinson in FA and you’re in a good spot

 

[KDPPatsfan85]

Is that realistic compensation for #6? I’d do that in a heartbeat for Wilson... Sign Robinson in FA and you’re in a good spot

I used the trade chart from drafttek.