So You're Saying There's a Chance: The 2020 Patriots Playoff Push

[sb1]

According to 538

Pats have a 16% chance to make the playoffs right now, and 4% to win the AFC East.

If Bills win tonight and Ravens win on Tuesday meaning the worst possible scenario for the Pats getting help - it's back to 14% for the playoffs. Given their opponents unfortunately I think this is the most likely scenario.

If Bills win tonight and Ravens lose - then it's 20% for the playoffs.
If Bills lose tonight and Ravens win - then it's 17% for the playoffs
If Bills lose tonight and Ravens lose - then it's 24% for the playoffs.

So a Ravens loss is more important at this point than a Bills loss.

Fun scenario - if Bills and Ravens lose - AND the Pats beat the Rams - AND both teams lose next week as well (which is not a stretch - they play Pitt and Cle respectively) then our playoff chances zoom way up and become almost a coin flip.

 

[sb1]

ON the flip side if Bills win and Ravens win both this week and next week, and Pats lose on Thursday and lose @ Miami - that would be elimination

 

[Uptown]

 

[A Defiant Goose]

Pats need a lot of help and I don't think they are good enough to run the table.

There. My expectations are back to what they were at the start of the year and as most recently a couple of weeks ago.

they need a lot less help today than they needed a couple of weeks ago

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

one game at a time. yesterday was a fun game to watch. I can't remember the last time the Pats were up by more than 2 TDs, and it was in the 2nd quarter.

 

[luuked]

If everything happens as he says and we win out then:

* Chiefs 11 wins already
* Steelers 11 wins already
* Bills go 11-5 (even if they lose to the Steelers and us)

* Raiders can still go 11-5 (winning out)
* Ravens go 11-5 (winning out)
* Browns go 11-5 ( with 2 wins against the Giants and Jets)
* Colts go 11-5 (winning everything except the LV game)
* Titans go 11-5 (win out except against GB)

and we are out.

Apart from our own games, the key game for us really is the Browns beating the Ravens next week. Because that puts the Ravens behind us for good and opens up a lot of scenarios.

Similarly Indy beating the Raiders would be also pretty huge.

 

[Nehalem]

If everything happens as he says and we win out then:

* Chiefs 11 wins already
* Steelers 11 wins already
* Bills go 11-5 (even if they lose to the Steelers and us)

* Raiders can still go 11-5 (winning out)
* Ravens go 11-5 (winning out)
* Browns go 11-5 ( with 2 wins against the Giants and Jets)
* Colts go 11-5 (winning everything except the LV game)
* Titans go 11-5 (win out except against GB)

and we are out.

Apart from our own games, the key game for us really is the Browns beating the Ravens next week. Because that puts the Ravens behind us for good and opens up a lot of scenarios.

Similarly Indy beating the Raiders would be also pretty huge.

In order to have a realistic chance at the 7th seed Patriots need
(1) Win out and get to 10-6
(2) Ravens and Raiders each lose at least 1 more game
(3) Dolphins to lose at least 1 more game in addition to their game vs Pats

(4) Or Titans/Colts drop 2 games hoping the tie-breakers favor us

 

[Ring 6]

Pats probably will need help from the Dolphins to take the division. Even if the Bills lose to SF but they beat Denver they have a common games tiebreaker over us if it comes to that.

A 3 way tie at 10-6 patriots win division.
would need Miami to lose to kc and us beat the raiders and bills. Bills lose to us, Miami and either or both of SF and Pitt.

 

[Ring 6]

If everything happens as he says and we win out then:

* Chiefs 11 wins already
* Steelers 11 wins already
* Bills go 11-5 (even if they lose to the Steelers and us)

* Raiders can still go 11-5 (winning out)
* Ravens go 11-5 (winning out)
* Browns go 11-5 ( with 2 wins against the Giants and Jets)
* Colts go 11-5 (winning everything except the LV game)
* Titans go 11-5 (win out except against GB)

and we are out.

Apart from our own games, the key game for us really is the Browns beating the Ravens next week. Because that puts the Ravens behind us for good and opens up a lot of scenarios.

Similarly Indy beating the Raiders would be also pretty huge.

The ravens aren’t going to beat the cowboys tomorrow. They are down to qb3 and decimated by covid.
They will be lucky to win another game.

 

[Joey007]

Still think it’s gonna take too much to get in now.

Winning out is the only way we’ll have a strong chance. To go 9-7 it’s possible but we’ll need some breaks.

Plenty of tough games ahead but we’ll see.

 

[Ring 6]

In order to have a realistic chance at the 7th seed Patriots need
(1) Win out and get to 10-6
(2) Ravens and Raiders each lose at least 1 more game
(3) Dolphins to lose at least 1 more game in addition to their game vs Pats

(4) Or Titans/Colts drop 2 games hoping the tie-breakers favor us

Miami plays the raiders. Ravens are not a threat they barely can field a team.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

The ravens aren’t going to beat the cowboys tomorrow. They are down to qb3 and decimated by covid.
They will be lucky to win another game.

Lamar is out tomorrow too? I haven’t even bothered to check, that would certainly help. And it would definitely hurt their chances against Cleveland given the layoff for him.

 

[amfootball]

Lamar is out tomorrow too? I haven’t even bothered to check, that would certainly help. And it would definitely hurt their chances against Cleveland given the layoff for him.

Lamar is expected to play.

Source: Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson expected to start Tuesday vs. Dallas Cowboys

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is expected to start in Tuesday night's game against the Cowboys, a source told ESPN's Adam Schefter.

www.espn.com

 

[luuked]

Lamar is out tomorrow too? I haven’t even bothered to check, that would certainly help. And it would definitely hurt their chances against Cleveland given the layoff for him.

He is eligible to return. The Browns game is the last really probable chance for the Ravens to drop one, beyond that you will have to hope for upsets (JAX, CIN, NYG).

 

[Ring 6]

Lamar is out tomorrow too? I haven’t even bothered to check, that would certainly help. And it would definitely hurt their chances against Cleveland given the layoff for him.

IR

 

[amfootball]

IR

He is not on IR. He came off on Sunday. He is playing tomorrow.

 

[Ring 6]

He is not on IR. He came off on Sunday. He is playing tomorrow.

How can he be back if he was put on IR 11/27?

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

IR

you may be thinking of rg3 who is on ir. Lamar expected to play, but ravens are still pretty beat up, and still have 10 on the covid list. Hopefully dallas capitalizes

 

[Ring 6]

you may be thinking of rg3 who is on ir. Lamar expected to play, but ravens are still pretty beat up, and still have 10 on the covid list. Hopefully dallas capitalizes

It says he went on IR 11/27.

Lamar Jackson Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for Lamar Jackson. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

 

[amfootball]

How can he be back if he was put on IR 11/27?

Correct. 10 days on IR for positive test. I think he tested positive on 11/26. He came off yesterday which would be day 10.