They were the # 1 defense in the NFL last year and won the Sb the year before mostly because of their defense. Systemically they are a top 3 defense. They rank either 1 or 2 in points allowed in the belichick era. (The site to search those numbers isn’t free any more so it could be 1 or 2 right now.)
The Patriots are not a top three defense.
They were at one time, but that is in the past - and has nothing to do with the current team, present or near future.
As of Week 8 in 2019 the Pats D had allowed 61 points, by far the best in the NFL.
NFL Standings As Of Week 8 of 2019
www.pro-football-reference.com
Then in the next eight games the Pats D allowed 164 points (20.5 ppg). Over a full season that would have placed the Pats between Dallas and Tennessee, just outside the top ten. That was due to an easy early season schedule and tougher opponents later, not injuries.
(On an aside, check where the Cowboys are now in regards to the inference about teams not suddenly getting worse.)
Now I am going to beat an already dead horse, with a reality check between the 2019 defense and the 2020 defense.
(Apologies in advance to those that have already seen these facts.)
The defensive offseason losses in free agency (and trades) had been overlooked by many, with TB12 moving on to Tampa dominating the discussion by the media and casual fans.
Defensive Snaps -- % -- Rank -- Player
833 --- 81% --- #3 --- Jamie Collins
832 --- 81% --- #4 --- Kyle Van Noy
736 --- 71% --- #5 --- Dont'a Hightower
669 --- 65% --- #7 --- Duron Harmon
653 --- 63% --- #8 --- Patrick Chung
508 --- 49% --- #11 -- Danny Shelton
272 --- 26% --- #18 -- Shilique Calhoun
210 --- 20% --- #20 -- Elandon Roberts
The hypothesis that the 2020 Patriots are a top defense is a myth.
They are also faced with the issue of dependency on players that are closing in on the end of their NFL careers.
- Devin McCourty: ranks 1st in 2020 defensive snaps; will turn 34 in 2021 training camp.
- Stephon Gilmore: ranks 5th in snaps (despite games missed); will turn 31 in week 2 (plus the contract).
- John Simon: ranks 6th in snaps; will turn 31 next October.
- Jason McCourty: 8th in snaps, and will also be turning 34; unlikely to return.
- Lawrence Guy: 10th in snaps, despite injuries; turns 31 next March.
One also has to consider if the Pats will move on from Deatrich Wise, Byron Cowart and others - all that would need to be replaced with unknown quantities.