Who's worth our TOP 10 PICK?

[carolinatony]

If we get a top 10 pick is there a player out there that you think we should take? Any Impact guy you like?

BB will try to trade down but the value may not be there for us.

 

[Patsmaniac]

Of course it has a lot to do with what happens in FA, etc., but I can comment on a few players I have watched a number of times. Jake Long would be a definite. You can't have to many OLineman. Kenny Phillips is a complete safety in every sense of the word. I will put my money on the line and say that there is no way we choose Laurinitis in the top 10. Our LB's require an amazing amount of knowledge to play the postion and I dont think BB will pick a guy with only 3 years of college exp that early. This guy may have all the talent but I think he would need a few years to understand what is needed in order to be an asset and not a liability out there. Looking at the others, with our depth, I think a trade down is the most likely.

 

[cstjohn17]

Good question, I guess if we are 'stuck' with the pick I would shoot for one of the studs Jake Long (OT), McFadden (RB), Phillips (Safety). Assuming they are gone I would look at these players (in this order):
Malcolm Jenkins (CB) Ohio State
Campbell (DE/DT) Miami
Stewart (RB) Oregon
Harvey (DE/OLB) Florida
Groves (DE/OLB) Auburn
Whoever their top ILB is (Laurinitis, Connors, etc.)

 

[patchick]

Precious few are worth it, IMO, especially if the pick inches toward the top 5. For that kind of pick at that kind of money you're not just looking for a great talent, but a position where the upgrade will make a major impact on your team's composition...and a position that's generally highly paid. With a strong veteran team you can't come close to saying "BPA" because you'd be paying megabucks for a benchwarmer, terrible cap management.

At first pass, I'd say the positional requirements for the Patriots rule out QB, RB, OG, C, TE, WR, S, DE, DT and possibly ILB. What does that leave? An elite cornerback, a Merriman/Ware-type pass rusher, and a franchise left tackle. Uh-oh. OT Jake Long is the only guy who fits the bill, and he's likely to go in the top few picks.

 

[dryheat44]

Precious few are worth it, IMO, especially if the pick inches toward the top 5. For that kind of pick at that kind of money you're not just looking for a great talent, but a position where the upgrade will make a major impact on your team's composition...and a position that's generally highly paid. With a strong veteran team you can't come close to saying "BPA" because you'd be paying megabucks for a benchwarmer, terrible cap management.

At first pass, I'd say the positional requirements for the Patriots rule out QB, RB, OG, C, TE, WR, S, DE, DT and possibly ILB. What does that leave? An elite cornerback, a Merriman/Ware-type pass rusher, and a franchise left tackle. Uh-oh. OT Jake Long is the only guy who fits the bill, and he's likely to go in the top few picks.

That mirrors my thinking almost exactly. We need a roster upgrade, and a position where there's a low bust rate.

Jake Long is the safe pick, and if we can't trade out of #5, I'd be cool with trading up to #3 or so to grab him.

 

[Patsmaniac]

I agree. We have a 2nd and 2 thirds and can hopefully get some defensive players with talent who we can give a little time to, to learn the ropes. I just think that with Pioli and BB using that much money on a top pick it will be a position with a low BUST rate. Who knows.

 

[patchick]

That mirrors my thinking almost exactly. We need a roster upgrade, and a position where there's a low bust rate.

Jake Long is the safe pick, and if we can't trade out of #5, I'd be cool with trading up to #3 or so to grab him.

I wonder how hard it really is to trade down if you're not shooting for the moon. Say #5 for #12 & #43 to a team eyeballing a McFadden, or their choice of QBs. That would leave the Pats with 5 day-1 picks and plenty of flexibility.

 

[everlong]

I wonder how hard it really is to trade down if you're not shooting for the moon. Say #5 for #12 & #43 to a team eyeballing a McFadden, or their choice of QBs. That would leave the Pats with 5 day-1 picks and plenty of flexibility.

Cleveland gave up their second rounder to move up from 7 to 6 to draft Winslow. I think that's the exception though not many teams are willing to do that.

 

[cstjohn17]

Precious few are worth it, IMO, especially if the pick inches toward the top 5. For that kind of pick at that kind of money you're not just looking for a great talent, but a position where the upgrade will make a major impact on your team's composition...and a position that's generally highly paid. With a strong veteran team you can't come close to saying "BPA" because you'd be paying megabucks for a benchwarmer, terrible cap management.

At first pass, I'd say the positional requirements for the Patriots rule out QB, RB, OG, C, TE, WR, S, DE, DT and possibly ILB. What does that leave? An elite cornerback, a Merriman/Ware-type pass rusher, and a franchise left tackle. Uh-oh. OT Jake Long is the only guy who fits the bill, and he's likely to go in the top few picks.

I like both the suggestions to trade up, or trade down (my preference). The Patriots made a big mistake trading two Day 1 picks for Chad Jackson. It is simple risk management, 5 B grade players may turn into 2 starters, 2 quality reserves and 1 bust.

But if we are 'forced' to pick at #5,6,7 or 8 then we should be adding a high quality starter or at worst some world class depth. Outside of QB and maybe D Line** there isn't a single unit that wouldn't be improved by a top 10 pick. I don't understand the positional requirements argument, the Patriots have only had one top ten pick (Seymour) and he started in the first year and became a pro bowler. I don't think any draft pick would be expected to start so I don't see why an elite player at any position couldn't come in and become the top reserve and eventual starter.

*Day 1 is only 2 rounds now, but that is another story
** Similar argument to Carriker last year, can you ever have enough quality D linemen? maybe

 

[PatsCanada]

Good question, I guess if we are 'stuck' with the pick I would shoot for one of the studs Jake Long (OT), McFadden (RB), Phillips (Safety). Assuming they are gone I would look at these players (in this order):
Malcolm Jenkins (CB) Ohio State
Campbell (DE/DT) Miami
Stewart (RB) Oregon
Harvey (DE/OLB) Florida
Groves (DE/OLB) Auburn
Whoever their top ILB is (Laurinitis, Connors, etc.)

I'd love McFadden, but i can't see us picking him, with Morris' play the way it is, we have three soild RBs as is.

Since we picked Merriweather last year, i dont know about going for safeties two years in a row in the first round, possibly Jenkins if Samuel jumps ship in the offseason. I have seen some Mock drafts out there which have us picking as high as 3 and picking Calais Campbell, not sure how i feel about that pick, would much rather have Jake Long, if he doesn't go top two (The Falcons or Phins should pick a QB, or trade down to pick one, so thats the hope im clinging to so Long drops to three). I like Laurinaitis a lot, and would probably be my pick anywhere outside of the top 5.

 

[mcbee]

Don't think they'd want to draft in top 5 or even top 10. The "value" there isn't as much. By that I mean that although you get a great player (you hope) you have to pay him so much that it's kind of a wash.

Getting good players late in the first round would probably add more value.

Not sure about Laurinitis. I don't know if he could handle a 3-4 ILB job. Seems like a hard job to draft for.

 

[The Great Believer]

This is where having that original pick that was taken away by the league would have been great for the Pats. Even if the traded the 9ers pick for say a lower pick and a 3rd that would have left them with 7 picks in the 1st 3 rounds (2 1sts, 1 second and 3 3rds...assuming they could get a 1st and 3rd for their 1st)...which is a lot of depth a lot of positions.

I guess even as it is, I am hoping the 9ers continue to implode, it's been a while since the Pats have had a top pick, it will be nice to watch the beginning of the draft with some anticipation, without having to wait several hours for the Pats to pick.

 

[Ishdul]

I don't think it gets any simpler than this: we only pick if we find someone who we really think is going to be a superstar in the league, whether it's Long, Phillips, Campbell, McFadden or whoever else, otherwise we trade down (and it's a good enough draft that somebody will pay big for a top 5 pick). We should have solid starters at every position through next year anyways.

 

[cstjohn17]

I don't think it gets any simpler than this: we only pick if we find someone who we really think is going to be a superstar in the league, whether it's Long, Phillips, Campbell, McFadden or whoever else, otherwise we trade down (and it's a good enough draft that somebody will pay big for a top 5 pick). We should have solid starters at every position through next year anyways.

I agreed with everything until the last sentence, who are the solid CBs and ILBs in 2008?

 

[patchick]

Outside of QB and maybe D Line** there isn't a single unit that wouldn't be improved by a top 10 pick. I don't understand the positional requirements argument, the Patriots have only had one top ten pick (Seymour) and he started in the first year and became a pro bowler. I don't think any draft pick would be expected to start so I don't see why an elite player at any position couldn't come in and become the top reserve and eventual starter.

I think I get where you're coming from. If you see a guy you think can be a game-changing, HOF-type talent, that's never really wasted. But I do think the position is a critical factor. Here's how I think about it...

When you excluded QB and DL, you were presumably thinking 2 things:
1. Those positions are so strong right now that the potential for a meaningful upgrade is minimal and we'd get a bigger impact elsewhere;
2. We have so much money tied up in those positions right now that it would be lousy cap strategy to commit another huge contract to a rookie.

Extending just those 2 arguments, I think you can rule out a number of other positions as well. Take LG anc C. Could you improve on Logan Mankins or Dan Koppen with a top-10 pick? Maybe, if you're lucky. How much would that incremental improvement be worth to you, though? This year's #5 pick signed for 6 years, $62 million. Is the projected degree of upgrade over a pro-bowl caliber guard like Mankins really worth 9% of your salary cap? And with Koppen already pulling in an average of of $5 million/year through 2011, would you really be willing to devote a total of $15 million/year to the center position? I can't imagine it.

Now let's throw in some extra factors. Is the position worth $10 million/year, period? Some positions require rare physical specimens and are hard to find on the FA market. In contrast, I don't think any RG in the league is worth 9% of the salary cap.

How about risk, "projectability" and time-to-impact? That's where WR and ILB run into trouble. WR is the hardest position to project from college to the NFL. It has a high bust rate, and this year BB seemed to give up on drafting WRs altogether and traded 3 picks for veteran receivers instead. ILB is a super-steep learning curve position where the Pats have struck out several times with both vets (Beisel, Brown) and highly regarded rookies (Claridge). I'd be mighty nervous committing #5 money to either position.

At TE the Pats have Watson, Brady and Thomas under contract for next season, and there's no Vernon Davis type in the draft this year anyway. Kenny Phillips at safety is a possibility I guess, and maybe McFadden. But I really think that the desired combination of value, rarity and impact is concentrated at just three positions: CB, OLB, LT.

 

[Ishdul]

I agreed with everything until the last sentence, who are the solid CBs and ILBs in 2008?

AD, Bruschi, Seau
Samuel, Hobbs, Gay

Granted, we could lose both Bruschi and Seau, or both Samuel and Gay, but I really don't consider either as strong possibilities and if worst comes to worst think we would probably sign a FA or make a trade. The great prospects of this draft aren't at CB or ILB anyways, or so I'm told.

 

[cstjohn17]

Um.. ahh.. yah but.. ... .. I have been schooled!

Excellent response. I didn't know the salaries were that high for a top 5 pick and was way off on the cap impact. I really appreciate your perspective.

As it sits now I can't see the pick being worse than 10, and maybe even higher. I hope we trade back for multiple picks, it will be fun to watch.

 

[cstjohn17]

AD, Bruschi, Seau
Samuel, Hobbs, Gay

Granted, we could lose both Bruschi and Seau, or both Samuel and Gay, but I really don't consider either as strong possibilities and if worst comes to worst think we would probably sign a FA or make a trade. The great prospects of this draft aren't at CB or ILB anyways, or so I'm told.

By my math only AD and Hobbs are actually under contract. Leaving 4 /6 as Free Agents, seems like a pretty big assumption that all 4 will re-sign or won't graduate. Seems like a long way from solid.

I doubt if any ILB drafted in 08 will be a starter, there is some hope a rookie could be the 3rd CB and maybe even start at the end of year 1.

 

[ayjackson]

I think we'll trade back to around 20 and add a 2009 first rounder.

 

[carolinatony]

There doesn't seen to be many players mentioned as TOP 5 except for McFadden who is a stud. He should go in the top3 imo. Hope the Jets don't get him!
Wish we had that Other # 1 pick.