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Were Pats fans and the Boston media unrealistic based on facts about the Patriots entering the 2020 season?
I'm not looking for a smarmy 'duh, of course, did you watch the last two games?' response. Nor is this meant to be yet another 'this offense is horrible' thread. What I am searching for is why forecasts were (apparently) overly optimistic, and what most of us collectively missed prior to the start of the season.
Personally I think I may have been less harsh in my preseason prognostications simply because so many expected more than I did, causing me to doubt my initial perception for the 2020 Patriots. Perhaps some of that can be attributed to hope versus expectations; ie, heart versus head.
1. - Salary Cap
It didn't matter when the Patriots made the decision to move on from Tom Brady. Regardless of when that date occurred, there would be cap implications. In this situation it cost the Pats $13,500,000 off the 2020 salary cap.
Add in Antonio Brown ($4,750,000), Stephen Gostkowski ($3,200,000) and Michael Bennett (2,000,000), and that is $23,450,000 of dead money that was unable to be used on free agents for this season. End result was that the Pats were unable to be a player in free agency last spring in terms of shoring up the WR and TE positions.
It appears that the Pats leaned a bit towards a 'win now' mode the last three years (based on TB12's age) in comparison to how they usually manage the cap, and now they are paying the price this season.
2. Trades
More evidence of a departure from the normal way of doing business was some of the trades made by the Pats. The most obvious example was giving a second round draft pick away for Sanu. Other less noticed examples include trading draft picks away for Josh Gordon, Trent Brown, Cordarrelle Patterson, Jason McCourty and Danny Shelton.
3. - Free Agency
As mentioned above, the Patriots were unable to do anything in this portion of roster management, despite the dire need to do so at three starting positions (X-WR, Z-WR, TE).
4. - Net Offseason Losses
To me this was the most glaring piece of evidence that the 2020 Patriots were about to make a precipitous drop in performance - and that thought was absent of the departure of the starting quarterback.
There was not another NFL team remotely close to the Patriots in terms of the number of players that elected to opt out. Nine teams had zero opting out, and no other team has more than two.
The defensive offseason losses in free agency (and trades) had been overlooked by many outside of this forum, with TB12 moving on to Tampa dominating the discussion by the media and casual fans. That was exacerbated by the Patriots that elected to opt out.
Defensive Snaps -- % -- Rank -- Player
833 --- 81% --- #3 --- Jamie Collins
832 --- 81% --- #4 --- Kyle Van Noy
736 --- 71% --- #5 --- Dont'a Hightower
669 --- 65% --- #7 --- Duron Harmon
653 --- 63% --- #8 --- Patrick Chung
508 --- 49% --- #11 -- Danny Shelton
272 --- 26% --- #18 -- Shilique Calhoun
210 --- 20% --- #20 -- Elandon Roberts
There were also sizable losses on special teams, though to be fair that could more easily be replenished.
ST Snaps -- % -- Rank -- Player
323 ---- 71% ---- #2 ---- Brandon Bolden
319 ---- 70% ---- #3 ---- Nate Ebner
241 ---- 51% ---- #5 ---- Shilique Calhoun
201 ---- 44% ---- #9 ---- Jamie Collins
143 ---- 31% ---- #15 --- Elandon Roberts
104 ---- 23% ---- #18 --- Danny Shelton
Other departed players account for a combined 343 snaps.
Here are the numbers on offense. They look worse than they really are since some were already addressed (David Andrews' return); others were in need of an upgrade anyways (Dorsett, Watson, Ferentz) or out of the team's control (Gordon, AB) - and in the case of Cannon and the OL there were other options that worked out fine (Eluemunor, Onwenu).
Snaps ---- % ---- Rank ---- Player
1142 ---- 99% ---- #2 ----- TB12
1046 ---- 94% ---- #4 ---- Ted Karras
1014 ---- 88% ---- #5 ---- Marcus Cannon
567 ----- 49% ---- #8 ---- Phillip Dorsett
467 ----- 40% ---- #11 --- Ben Watson
325 ----- 28% ---- #16 --- Josh Gordon
205 ----- 18% ---- #20 --- James Ferentz
96 ------- 8% ----- #21 --- Brandon Bolden
Keep in mind that due to topics #1 and #3 above, the Patriots did not offset those losses with any personnel additions.
5. - Draft
There were three positions of need (X-WR, Z-WR, TE) that were not addressed in the 2020 draft, with the Pats trading down from #23 to pick up an additional draft pick (#37 & #71). Instead the club looked long term, using that #37 at the safety position already manned by two older veterans (McCourty, Chung). That decision to trade down and add another draft pick was necessitated by a very short range decision in 2019, trading a #2 pick for Mohamed Sanu. Then when the Pats made their next pick near the end of the second round, again it was based on long term planning - choosing Josh Uche rather than a TE or WE.
The 2020 draft was all about the 2021 Patriots and beyond - it was never about this year's team.
With all those changes, why did oddsmakers place New England's 2020 projected win total to be nine? Was it a reflection of the reality of the team - or more about the last twenty years, and the public perception that this team would just keep finding ways to win in perpetuity as long as Bill Belichick was in Foxboro, regardless of how empty the cupboard was? A new quarterback with virtually zero time to learn the new system and get in sync with the rest of the offense? Add in zero OTAs, scrimmages, preseason games and what should we have expected?
This is not intended to be a slam on Bill, Cam, or the front office - and I sincerely hope that is not what this thread turns out to be. I just think that many of us us had unrealistic expectations, due to the end results of the 2001-2019 New England Patriots.
I'm not looking for a smarmy 'duh, of course, did you watch the last two games?' response. Nor is this meant to be yet another 'this offense is horrible' thread. What I am searching for is why forecasts were (apparently) overly optimistic, and what most of us collectively missed prior to the start of the season.
Personally I think I may have been less harsh in my preseason prognostications simply because so many expected more than I did, causing me to doubt my initial perception for the 2020 Patriots. Perhaps some of that can be attributed to hope versus expectations; ie, heart versus head.
1. - Salary Cap
It didn't matter when the Patriots made the decision to move on from Tom Brady. Regardless of when that date occurred, there would be cap implications. In this situation it cost the Pats $13,500,000 off the 2020 salary cap.
Add in Antonio Brown ($4,750,000), Stephen Gostkowski ($3,200,000) and Michael Bennett (2,000,000), and that is $23,450,000 of dead money that was unable to be used on free agents for this season. End result was that the Pats were unable to be a player in free agency last spring in terms of shoring up the WR and TE positions.
It appears that the Pats leaned a bit towards a 'win now' mode the last three years (based on TB12's age) in comparison to how they usually manage the cap, and now they are paying the price this season.
2. Trades
More evidence of a departure from the normal way of doing business was some of the trades made by the Pats. The most obvious example was giving a second round draft pick away for Sanu. Other less noticed examples include trading draft picks away for Josh Gordon, Trent Brown, Cordarrelle Patterson, Jason McCourty and Danny Shelton.
3. - Free Agency
As mentioned above, the Patriots were unable to do anything in this portion of roster management, despite the dire need to do so at three starting positions (X-WR, Z-WR, TE).
4. - Net Offseason Losses
To me this was the most glaring piece of evidence that the 2020 Patriots were about to make a precipitous drop in performance - and that thought was absent of the departure of the starting quarterback.
There was not another NFL team remotely close to the Patriots in terms of the number of players that elected to opt out. Nine teams had zero opting out, and no other team has more than two.
The defensive offseason losses in free agency (and trades) had been overlooked by many outside of this forum, with TB12 moving on to Tampa dominating the discussion by the media and casual fans. That was exacerbated by the Patriots that elected to opt out.
Defensive Snaps -- % -- Rank -- Player
833 --- 81% --- #3 --- Jamie Collins
832 --- 81% --- #4 --- Kyle Van Noy
736 --- 71% --- #5 --- Dont'a Hightower
669 --- 65% --- #7 --- Duron Harmon
653 --- 63% --- #8 --- Patrick Chung
508 --- 49% --- #11 -- Danny Shelton
272 --- 26% --- #18 -- Shilique Calhoun
210 --- 20% --- #20 -- Elandon Roberts
There were also sizable losses on special teams, though to be fair that could more easily be replenished.
ST Snaps -- % -- Rank -- Player
323 ---- 71% ---- #2 ---- Brandon Bolden
319 ---- 70% ---- #3 ---- Nate Ebner
241 ---- 51% ---- #5 ---- Shilique Calhoun
201 ---- 44% ---- #9 ---- Jamie Collins
143 ---- 31% ---- #15 --- Elandon Roberts
104 ---- 23% ---- #18 --- Danny Shelton
Other departed players account for a combined 343 snaps.
Here are the numbers on offense. They look worse than they really are since some were already addressed (David Andrews' return); others were in need of an upgrade anyways (Dorsett, Watson, Ferentz) or out of the team's control (Gordon, AB) - and in the case of Cannon and the OL there were other options that worked out fine (Eluemunor, Onwenu).
Snaps ---- % ---- Rank ---- Player
1142 ---- 99% ---- #2 ----- TB12
1046 ---- 94% ---- #4 ---- Ted Karras
1014 ---- 88% ---- #5 ---- Marcus Cannon
567 ----- 49% ---- #8 ---- Phillip Dorsett
467 ----- 40% ---- #11 --- Ben Watson
325 ----- 28% ---- #16 --- Josh Gordon
205 ----- 18% ---- #20 --- James Ferentz
96 ------- 8% ----- #21 --- Brandon Bolden
Keep in mind that due to topics #1 and #3 above, the Patriots did not offset those losses with any personnel additions.
5. - Draft
There were three positions of need (X-WR, Z-WR, TE) that were not addressed in the 2020 draft, with the Pats trading down from #23 to pick up an additional draft pick (#37 & #71). Instead the club looked long term, using that #37 at the safety position already manned by two older veterans (McCourty, Chung). That decision to trade down and add another draft pick was necessitated by a very short range decision in 2019, trading a #2 pick for Mohamed Sanu. Then when the Pats made their next pick near the end of the second round, again it was based on long term planning - choosing Josh Uche rather than a TE or WE.
The 2020 draft was all about the 2021 Patriots and beyond - it was never about this year's team.
With all those changes, why did oddsmakers place New England's 2020 projected win total to be nine? Was it a reflection of the reality of the team - or more about the last twenty years, and the public perception that this team would just keep finding ways to win in perpetuity as long as Bill Belichick was in Foxboro, regardless of how empty the cupboard was? A new quarterback with virtually zero time to learn the new system and get in sync with the rest of the offense? Add in zero OTAs, scrimmages, preseason games and what should we have expected?
This is not intended to be a slam on Bill, Cam, or the front office - and I sincerely hope that is not what this thread turns out to be. I just think that many of us us had unrealistic expectations, due to the end results of the 2001-2019 New England Patriots.