Right now, the teams ahead of us in the AFC:
AFC North: Steelers 5-0
AFC South: Titans 5-0
AFC West: Chiefs 4-1
AFC East: Bills 4-1
Wildcard #1: Ravens 4-1
Wildcard #2: Browns 4-2
Wildcard #3: Colts 4-2
Raiders 3-2
Dolphins 3-3
Broncos 2-3
We have already beaten the Raiders and Dolphins. We can expect the Broncos to sink eventually. We can pretty much forget about the BYE...that would require at MINIMUM a 12-4 record...meaning a 10-1 finish for us...and we already lost to K.C. So, for me...it's about winning the division and grabbing a HOME game for wild card weekend.
Right now...we absolutely need to go 2-1 in the next 3. Beat the Niners at home, lose in Buffalo, and beat the Jets on the road. That gets us to 4-4....of course I prefer 5-3. But 4-4 is where we absolutely must be at the halfway point. We must win at home vs. the Niners...and hope we win in Buffalo.
At 4-4...we open the second half with:
BAL (SNF)
@HOU
ARI
@LAC
@LAR (TNF)
I think we can go 3-2 through this stretch (loss to Baltimore, split @HOU/ARI, sweep both L.A. games in 4 days).
That leaves us at 7-6 with a final 3 of:
@Mia, BUF, NYJ...I think we win the final 3 for a 10-6 record.
I will entertain a 11-5 record if we win the next 3 to finish 5-3 before the second half.
I think the three key junctures in the season will be the next 2 games (SF and @BUF), the L.A. double dip (remember this is a "bubble" type of environment for the team with 10 days off before the final 3 AFC East games), and the final 3 games.