Bengals release QB Andy Dalton

[Wordsmyth]

No. Please, God. No.

Lighten up, Francis.

 

[Uptown]

Interesting...and yes, we know about the lack of playoff wins...save it..

 

[RobertWeathers]

Afternoon and evening sickness, actually. Good news for the baby’s development, apparently. She’s in Hell, but that’s okay.

...and when it's over she'll remind you and the kid the hell she endured without solicitation.

 

[Kasmir]

I mean, whether Stidham turns out to be a better or worse quarterback than Dalton seems to me a question independent of whether Belichick has faith in him or not. Would I put money on Stidham starting 10 seasons, going to the Pro Bowl three times, and finishing those 10 seasons with a winning record and over 200 touchdowns? No, I would not. Nor would I make a bet at even money that Stidham would outperform Dalton next year if you could play some parallel season with both as quarterback of the Patriots.

Any belief in Stidham is pure religion (Belichick must like him, so he must be good) but historically the probability of a 4th rounder being a good quarterback is not very high. Ryan Finley and Will Grier were drafted higher than Stidham last year and were both putrid.

Going back to 1990 and excluding this and last year, there were 259 QBs drafted in round 3 or later. Of those, the following were 'acceptable' starters for some period of time:
1. Neil O'Donnell
2. Brad Johnson
3. Mark Brunell
4. Gus Frerotte
5. Matt Hasselbeck
6. Marc Bulger
7. Tom Brady
8. Josh McCown
9. David Garrard
10. Matt Schaub
11. Kyle Orton
12. Matt Cassel
13. Ryan Fitzpatrick
14. Tyrod Taylor
15. Russell Wilson
16. Nick Foles
17. Kirk Cousins
18. Dak Prescott
19. Jacoby Brissett

Note that many of those guys weren't all that good, you never really feel comfortable with a Kyle Orton or Jacoby Brissett or Ryan Fitzpatrick as your starter, but that's a 7.3% success rate in finding an acceptable starter. Cut down the list to above average or better starters, guys I'd absolutely take over Dalton (i.e. Brunell, Hasselbeck, Brady, Wilson, Cousins, Prescott) - you're at a 2.3% success rate.

There were a couple undrafted guys in this timeframe (Warner, Romo, Delhomme, Garcia, Fiedler, and Hoyer being notable names) that you could add but it still doesn't do much to move the needle considering there have been hundreds of undrafted QBs.

Your assessment and my assessment are based on what we know of Stidham, which is very little, and hence using draft position as a proxy for his likely success remains reasonable.

However Belichick now has new proprietary information on Stidham, so draft position no longer means much of anything to him, except to compare Stidham to a potential newly drafted QB. So he rejected Love based on that knowledge, even if he agreed Love was a 1st round pick and Stidham a mere 4th rounder.

It's not "religious" to observe that Belichick is acting like Stidham is much more valuable than he thought he would be when he drafted him in the 4th round. Belichick appears to believe that based on his proprietary experience coaching Stidham, he has at least as much upside as any late 1st round QB pick he could have made.

If he doesn't pursue Dalton, then that is further evidence that he thinks Stidham will be at least as good as Dalton. That doesn't mean that Belichick is correct, but any assessment of Stidham has to take Belichick's signalling into account, which indicates more than a 4th round comparable.

Now if Belichick does bring on Dalton, that will signal he still has sufficient doubts about Stidham to spend the money to bring in competition with a known mediocre ceiling, and we should indeed remain skeptical about Stidham.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Andy 'the Red rifle' interception machine - no thank you - the man is washed for a few years now

 

[GaryfromTO]

 

[RIP#40]

but you can think the Patriots are in trouble even if Brady was fading because what they have instead is... a career mediocrity and a wholly unproven 4th rounder..[/QUOTE]

When Brady took over he was a wholly unproven 6th rounder. I don't think this board existed in 2001, but can you imagine what the posts would have looked like when Bledsoe went down and the team was turned over to Brady. I'm guessing the armchair quarterbacks were predicting doom and gloom and instead they got a Lombardi. In Bill I trust.

 

[fxmallon]

Jacksonville makes the most sense. Pats second.... otherwise
Dalton joins the backup competition.

 

[PatsDeb]

Maybe in his prime Dalton was worth a look, but I have to agree with those who say he's been really bad for a couple of years now. Thanks but no thanks.

 

[Kdo5]

Imagine going from Brady to Dalton. Belichick playing chess everyone else playing checkers, eh?

 

[mgteich]

but you can think the Patriots are in trouble even if Brady was fading because what they have instead is... a career mediocrity and a wholly unproven 4th rounder..

When Brady took over he was a wholly unproven 6th rounder. I don't think this board existed in 2001, but can you imagine what the posts would have looked like when Bledsoe went down and the team was turned over to Brady. I'm guessing the armchair quarterbacks were predicting doom and gloom and instead they got a Lombardi. In Bill I trust.[/QUOTE]
I would be fine if Dalton or Cam went down and we had Stidham as a solid backup, ready to one in.

 

[nabwong]

Dalton is done. I’d rather have jay cutler even though I would not sign jay cutler.

 

[Simpelton]

Between Dalton and Cam would rather have Cam

I didn't realize we'd hit a time warp and it was suddenly 2012 again.

No interest whatsoever in Cam unless you're signing him as a running back. That arm is special deluxe ultra dead flavor dead.

If you want him as an RB or think he could transition to TE, go nuts, but even before he developed a terminal case of shoulderburger he was one of the most inconsistent players on the planet, One of the most boom and bust quarterbacks I've literally ever seen in an NFL uniform, you never knew what you'd get from year to year, one year he'd carry you the next he'd frustrate the living daylights out of you. Now that he has finely minced pate between his elbow and his neck, that's not going to get better.

Dalton on the other hand is one of the more consistent QBs in the NFL. He's the ultimate middle class QB, Usually above average, never elite. Reminds me in some ways of Bledsoe except without quite the upside. Every now and again a guy like that can get into the Superbowl the way Jake Delhomme or Kurt Warner did. A team can win with Dalton, it just needs other parts of the team to take on some weight because Dalton won't get you there by himself.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

but you can think the Patriots are in trouble even if Brady was fading because what they have instead is... a career mediocrity and a wholly unproven 4th rounder..

When Brady took over he was a wholly unproven 6th rounder. I don't think this board existed in 2001, but can you imagine what the posts would have looked like when Bledsoe went down and the team was turned over to Brady. I'm guessing the armchair quarterbacks were predicting doom and gloom and instead they got a Lombardi. In Bill I trust.[/QUOTE]
Back then I was on Patriots.com and reading my Patriots football weekly religiously.

 

[XLIX]

When Brady took over he was a wholly unproven 6th rounder. I don't think this board existed in 2001, but can you imagine what the posts would have looked like when Bledsoe went down and the team was turned over to Brady. I'm guessing the armchair quarterbacks were predicting doom and gloom and instead they got a Lombardi. In Bill I trust.

The team was 5-13 in the previous 18 games. I mean, predicting doom & gloom would be done simply by predicting more of the same.

 

[NormZauchin]

I didn't realize we'd hit a time warp and it was suddenly 2012 again.

No interest whatsoever in Cam unless you're signing him as a running back. That arm is special deluxe ultra dead flavor dead.

If you want him as an RB or think he could transition to TE, go nuts, but even before he developed a terminal case of shoulderburger he was one of the most inconsistent players on the planet, One of the most boom and bust quarterbacks I've literally ever seen in an NFL uniform, you never knew what you'd get from year to year, one year he'd carry you the next he'd frustrate the living daylights out of you. Now that he has finely minced pate between his elbow and his neck, that's not going to get better.

Dalton on the other hand is one of the more consistent QBs in the NFL. He's the ultimate middle class QB, Usually above average, never elite. Reminds me in some ways of Bledsoe except without quite the upside. Every now and again a guy like that can get into the Superbowl the way Jake Delhomme or Kurt Warner did. A team can win with Dalton, it just needs other parts of the team to take on some weight because Dalton won't get you there by himself.

I wouldn't include Kurt Warner in with Dalton and Delhomme. He had a couple of truly great years and went to the Super Bowl as the starting QB three times with two different teams. Only two other quarterbacks have started the Super Bowl on different teams, Peyton Manning and Craig Morton.

 

[NG Pats Fan]

Imagine going from Brady to Dalton. Belichick playing chess everyone else playing checkers, eh?

Had two chances at Lamar Jackson in 2018 in round 1....would have solved our problem

 

[fnordcircle]

If we're going to bring in someone, bring in Cam who is a much better QB and patsfans.com will run a lot faster because certain fans will quit watching the team for some reason.

 

[n6249c]

However Belichick now has new proprietary information on Stidham, so draft position no longer means much of anything to him, ...

Now if Belichick does bring on Dalton, that will signal he still has sufficient doubts about Stidham to spend the money to bring in competition with a known mediocre ceiling, and we should indeed remain skeptical about Stidham.

I agree with your point that Belichick has additional, closer and more recent, information about Stidham than anybody else does.

I don’t entirely agree with your last paragraph however. Remember Belichick was an economics major. If he has the chance to buy a productive asset cheap, paying pennies on the dollar for value purchased, his doing so is not indicative of his feelings about some other existing asset.

If he signs Dalton it could signal that he thinks he’s getting more bang for his buck than Hoyer gives at backup QB, plus added value because Dalton will push Stidham harder than Hoyer in the QB competition.

That doesn’t signal doubts about Stidham, it just signals Bill was a good economics student.

 

[venecol]

Signing this guy would just add to my offseason misery.

Oh come on man, who doesn't like the Red Rifle.