Gasp, With No Reasonable Tradedown Or Out, Belichick Drafts

[mgteich]

It is quite possible that there will be no one giving reasonable value for a tradedown or for a trade into 2021.

Who MIGHT be the player with highest value on Bill's board? I fear that the highest rated player will be McKinney, the best safety in the draft.

ONE SCENARIO - PLAYERS GONE (22)
OT (5) Thomas, Willis, Wires, Becton, Jones
OG (1) Ruiz
WR (4) Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs, Jefferson
QB (4) Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love
DL (3) Young, Brown, Kinlaw
LB (2) Simmons, Murray
CB (3) Okudah, Henderson, Fulton

 

[jboston19]

Well, conversely, there now may be more value in trading up and in to this draft, so there’s that option, as well.

However, in your scenario, DEs Espinosa and Gross-Matos and LBs Queen and possibly Jordan Brooks (whom I think is higher on pros draft boards than the public’s) probably are on the short list.

 

[sportnik]

That Pats have clearly emphasized the OL & DB position groups over the past few years. This allows them to win with defense and ball control. Great coverage allows them to manufacture the pass rush out of their front 7 and the OL is key to maintaining possession and sustaining long drives (not to mention keeping your QB healthy).

I'd like to see them take the Top available OL in Round 1. Wynn has some positional flexibility, and could move inside, even to Center, if they get a T they like. Plus Cannon probably has a year or two left max.

The other players I love in this draft are Kmet the TE from ND. This is where the horrible Sanu trade kills them. I would not be shocked to see Thuney traded for a 2, so they can grab the Kmet. They could take an OT in round 1, then move Wynn to G if they go this way.

I also love the QB out of Washington State. Gordon. He reminds me so much of jimmy G - the quick release and leadership qualities. He was mega productive in college, just like Jimmy & is dismissed as a prospect because he played in a up tempo Air Raid offense, just like Jimmy. I have a hunch BB was specifically referring to Gordon when he said this QB class had "good depth".

 

[TheRainMaker]

I don’t know if these players even exist anymore, but I’d love the Pats to get a space eating NT. I’d also like a DE.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I don’t know if these players even exist anymore, but I’d love the Pats to get a space eating NT. I’d also like a DE.

I think we need another fatty. Bill screwed up by not having and the Titans made us pay.

Fotu from Utah is a mountain. 3rd projection

 

[BTTA]

The few articles I've read about this year's draft that did broad interviewing with NFL scouts and coaches, leave the impression that after the first 4 or 5 picks, there's no player worthy of a first round grade in the entire draft, at any position. And almost all of the players are 4th or 5th round talent. It is a bit comical. It also supports the Belichick system of projecting how a player will fit with the team, rather than what round a player is worthy of.

They'll draft a handful of S, RB, and CB in the early rounds, and three WR in the 6th, leaving us all looking at the same holes in the roster that we have now, and wondering what in the world they are going to do to fill them.

 

[Triumph]

It is quite possible that there will be no one giving reasonable value for a tradedown or for a trade into 2021.

Who MIGHT be the player with highest value on Bill's board? I fear that the highest rated player will be McKinney, the best safety in the draft.

ONE SCENARIO - PLAYERS GONE (22)
OT (5)
OG (1)
WR (4)
QB (4)
DL (3) Young, Brown, Kinlaw
LB (2) Simmons, Murray
CB (3) Okudah, Henderson, Fulton

Is McKinney a game changer? Ed Reed, Polumau, Rodney Harrison type?

If he is take him.

A great Safety boosts run support and the pass D. This would be a 2nd Pats contract guy.

 

[primetime]

I assume the receivers that have been selected are Lamb, Jeudy, Ruggs, and Jefferson/Mims. The one of the latter group who isn't picked could be the selection.

In this situation the best value is probably an edge rusher - Chaisson, Gross-Matos, Epenesa, Uche, Baun. Of those, Gross-Matos is probably my favorite but from a pure talent perspective, Chaisson is the guy. Epenesa does nothing for me. As a versatile defensive tackle, Marlon Davidson is a possibility; I think he's better than Derrick Brown.

Depending on the identities of the tackles selected, you could see any one of a number of guys still available. It's possible there are seven or eight tackles in the first round - the 'big four' plus Jackson, Cleveland, Jones, and Wilson. The Patriots might really like one of those guys. Cleveland in particular strikes me as a guy with the raw material to be a 10-year starter at either tackle position.

Patrick Queen is a possibility there as he remains on the board, he and Chaisson are probably the top rated players available. I don't love Queen for the Patriots, he doesn't stack well. I could also see a situation in which Belichick falls in love with a guy like Jordyn Brooks, who's a good stack guy. Taking a safety here doesn't do much for me, I think McKinney's more of a 2nd round guy. There are good safeties in this draft but no Derwin James or Eric Berry style game-changers, you can get one in the 3rd or 4th round.

There are options there. I'm not in love with any of them but good prospects at positions where the Patriots have needs.

 

[BTTA]

Do you read the Athletic? Wondering about your take on their take on the OL, which is quite extensive. McGinn’s NFL Draft Series: Scouts on top offensive linemen...

@BaconGrundleCandy, too.

Here's a tidbit about the OT's: “There’s no consensus with these guys,” an NFC personnel director said. “We have different orders between scouts, coaches. It’s kind of your flavor. You probably will get six tackles (in the first round) but there’s only four you feel good about. Then it falls off.”

I assume the receivers that have been selected are Lamb, Jeudy, Ruggs, and Jefferson/Mims. The one of the latter group who isn't picked could be the selection.

In this situation the best value is probably an edge rusher - Chaisson, Gross-Matos, Epenesa, Uche, Baun. Of those, Gross-Matos is probably my favorite but from a pure talent perspective, Chaisson is the guy. Epenesa does nothing for me. As a versatile defensive tackle, Marlon Davidson is a possibility; I think he's better than Derrick Brown.

Depending on the identities of the tackles selected, you could see any one of a number of guys still available. It's possible there are seven or eight tackles in the first round - the 'big four' plus Jackson, Cleveland, Jones, and Wilson. The Patriots might really like one of those guys. Cleveland in particular strikes me as a guy with the raw material to be a 10-year starter at either tackle position.

Patrick Queen is a possibility there as he remains on the board, he and Chaisson are probably the top rated players available. I don't love Queen for the Patriots, he doesn't stack well. I could also see a situation in which Belichick falls in love with a guy like Jordyn Brooks, who's a good stack guy. Taking a safety here doesn't do much for me, I think McKinney's more of a 2nd round guy. There are good safeties in this draft but no Derwin James or Eric Berry style game-changers, you can get one in the 3rd or 4th round.

There are options there. I'm not in love with any of them but good prospects at positions where the Patriots have needs.

 

[Gator Mike]

I don't see safety as a position where the Patriots have to use a premium pick this year.

Do they need another body? Probably. But I just don't think you have to use the 23rd pick in the draft to essentially replace Duron Harmon.

 

[supafly]

Who MIGHT be the player with highest value on Bill's board? I fear that the highest rated player will be McKinney, the best safety in the draft.

It’s totally reasonable that the first round pick could be a safety. After all, the strength of the entire team was the secondary and they traded Harmon, with DMac and Chung another year older. It’s probably getting to be time to spend some draft resources at the position again.

 

[primetime]

Do you read the Athletic? Wondering about your take on their take on the OL, which is quite extensive. McGinn’s NFL Draft Series: Scouts on top offensive linemen...

@BaconGrundleCandy, too.

Here's a tidbit about the OT's: “There’s no consensus with these guys,” an NFC personnel director said. “We have different orders between scouts, coaches. It’s kind of your flavor. You probably will get six tackles (in the first round) but there’s only four you feel good about. Then it falls off.”

I always read the McGinn draft series, and I'm glad it went over to the Athletic. I think that quote is probably true but I think there are teams that are going to like Cleveland or Jones, in particular, up there with the other four guys (or even ahead of them in some instances). In any case, tackle's one of those positions you're going to have to pull the trigger on early to get one you feel good with, even if you don't feel great about it. There's a big drop-off after the 'next four' (Jackson, Cleveland, Jones, Wilson) to guys like Peart and Bartch, and by pick 50 I think there will be 8 tackles off the board. If the Patriots stay at 23, they're probably not getting a tackle in this draft who's anything more than a major project unless they pick him there.

(That said, I think if the scenario in the OP presents itself and only 4 tackles are taken when they select at #23, tackle might be the reason some enterprising team like the Bengals is willing to jump up and deal with the Patriots. Think if the Bengals dealt 33 and 65 to move up, the Patriots could still grab a tackle there and add Hurts at 65 then receiver/tight end/defensive lineman/linebacker/safety in the 3rd).

 

[lancerman]

Don’t overthink it, it’s a WR heavy draft. One of the top WR’s should fall to us. WR was our biggest position of need on offense. Unless a stud LB falls to us, go with the easy pick

 

[STUB STUB]

I think we need another fatty

Agreed. If we know Belichick is a coach that "builds from the inside out" and if this is the beginning of a 1-3 year rebuild, and if our OL is in decent shape, it would make sense to bolster our DL position in this draft.

Consider this: for 2020, our entire starting defensive line combined* accounts for less of a cap hit than the dead money from Brady+Brown: $17.3M vs. $18.3M.

I've also noticed a pattern where Belichick will sign a cheap-but-decent FA at a position he is about to use a high draft pick on (perhaps to ease the transition for the new player, or to provide an emergency backup if it's a total bust/injury). Could Beau Allen be that guy?

Beyond the 1st round, Belichick is usually drafting players that will start in a year after they're picked - i.e., to replace older guys that will become FAs in 2021.

* Guy, Butler, Allen, Simon, Wise, Winovich

 

[scott99]

I think the pick will be Kenneth Murray, I think he will drop to us at 23 due to all the WR and OT picks with the usual defenders picked before Murray. Perfect KVN replacement, maybe even more explosive.

Then I pray they use all three 3rds on TEs & WRs. 2 TEs and an explosive WR.

 

[micronin127]

Grab a safety. Xavier McKinney - Alabama

 

[primetime]

I wonder how the team feels about Derek Rivers. I know he can't stay healthy, but his role is that Van Noy role. I think that will play into it. He's kind of a forgotten guy but he's still under contract cheaply for another season.

 

[mgteich]

Don’t overthink it, it’s a WR heavy draft. One of the top WR’s should fall to us. WR was our biggest position of need on offense. Unless a stud LB falls to us, go with the easy pick

???

Yes, this is a WR heavy draft with lots of reasonable prospects in the top 125 players. The question is how much better one of the "top" WR's is than some in the 2nd or even the 3rd. Lots of folks have 3 "top" WRs: Judy, Lamb and Ruggs.

Just because this draft has lots of NFL quality WR's doesn't mean that the value is at 23; 63 may be almost as good, or even 83.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

I think the pick will be Kenneth Murray, I think he will drop to us at 23 due to all the WR and OT picks with the usual defenders picked before Murray. Perfect KVN replacement, maybe even more explosive.

Then I pray they use all three 3rds on TEs & WRs. 2 TEs and an explosive WR.

Good post.

This article below isn't too hot for Murray but who knows

The Draft Network

 

[mgteich]

.

However, in your scenario, DEs Espinosa and Gross-Matos and LBs Queen and possibly Jordan Brooks (whom I think is higher on pros draft boards than the public’s) probably are on the short list.[/QUOTE]

I'd pick whichever of Chaisson or Murray falls instead of your first three. Brooks is certainly a possibility.

Queen lacks junk in his trunk (229 lbs).