My thoughts on Sony Michel

[Pats2000]

He reminds me of Antwone Smith a bit. Better runner and vision though. Hes a downhill back that hits the hole decisively. I wouldn't even call him a one cut back, he's a one error wiggle back. Also has great burst, he's deceptively quick in a straight line when he hits that suggestion second gear, but not a burner. I like him, he's good at hitting the defense hard and tiring them out. Also I thought he managed to avoid the rookie wall and played extremely well through the playoffs.

 

[supafly]

Sony Michel could be considered as a postseason MVP, and rightfully so. He was that important. I don’t think they make that kind of post-Xmas run without him. And he was a rookie...

Totally agree with those saying that he has great vision. I don’t remember seeing too many negative plays with him. He seems to be consistent in making moderate gains when the ball is in his hands. Whatever he’s doing is great for the future of our backfield, at least based on season one.

 

[DarrylS]

Michel, Burkhead, Harris and White all part of the "master plan" to take some pressure off of Brady ...

Then there is the RB attrition factor that seems to happen every year... stay tuned. What is comforting to know here is that we have the best G tandem in the NFL with Thuney and Mason..

 

[RobertWeathers]

Michel, Burkhead, Harris and White all part of the "master plan" to take some pressure off of Brady ...

Then there is the RB attrition factor that seems to happen every year... stay tuned. What is comforting to know here is that we have the best G tandem in the NFL with Thuney and Mason..

Attrition is at all positions.

Remember Thuney is a FA after this year.

 

[SBLIII]

Michel, Burkhead, Harris and White all part of the "master plan" to take some pressure off of Brady ...

Then there is the RB attrition factor that seems to happen every year... stay tuned. What is comforting to know here is that we have the best G tandem in the NFL with Thuney and Mason..

Thuney will be gone after this year so enjoy it while you can

 

[203Pat]

Thuney will be gone after this year so enjoy it while you can

Someone will pay him big money.

 

[patriot1136]

I just pray for Michel to get healthy and stay healthy. Hopefully White, Harris, etc. help take some of the workload off his knees.

 

[SBLIII]

Someone will pay him big money.

agreed. Think he will get 12 million per year.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I just pray for Michel to get healthy and stay healthy. Hopefully White, Harris, etc. help take some of the workload off his knees.

In 18 seasons, they have gone over 500 rushes a year only 3 times. In 2007 they were on a pace to go over 500 until Sammy Morris went down vs DAL Week 6.

With Morris: 34.6 rushes per game
Without Morris: 25 rushes per game

I really think its possible they do that this year- especially if we believe the defense will be as good as we think they are capable of being.

Sony 170
D Harris 150
Burk 100
White 50
Misc 30 carries
-Jet sweeps, Develin dives, Bolden with few carries, etc

 

[BlueThunder]

With the above carries breakdown, it looks like Pats don't have a 1000 yd back this season.....which is fine

 

[RobertWeathers]

With the above carries breakdown, it looks like Pats don't have a 1000 yd back this season.....which is fine

Yep who cares.

It's all speculation but I don't think the staff wants to see Sony pile up more than 12-15 carries a game but I could be wrong.

If his knee is right and has regained his explosiveness, that dude is a gamebreaker and they need that in the offense.

 

[BTTA]

still think he is going to put up numbers this year. 1,200 and 10 TDs or so. Ground and pound baby.

If he stays healthy all season he's definitely a 1100-1300 yard guy.

If he stays healthy, Sony will easily rush for 1,200+ yards and 10+ TD’s.

I don't think he'll get enough carries to reach these numbers. If Michel stays healthy, it'll be a good sign if he doesn't get the carries, because it means the other backs are producing and not injured.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

In 18 seasons, they have gone over 500 rushes a year only 3 times. In 2007 they were on a pace to go over 500 until Sammy Morris went down vs DAL Week 6.

With Morris: 34.6 rushes per game
Without Morris: 25 rushes per game

I really think its possible they do that this year- especially if we believe the defense will be as good as we think they are capable of being.

Sony 170
D Harris 150
Burk 100
White 50
Misc 30 carries
-Jet sweeps, Develin dives, Bolden with few carries, etc

You think he'll lose 40 carries off his rookie year?

 

[RobertWeathers]

You think he'll lose 40 carries off his rookie year?

So here is where my head is at with him.

My belief is I don't think they wanted him to have the kind of workload he did last year. Originally, I think they wanted him to be more like a 2015 Dion Lewis role. 10-12 carries a game. 3-5 catches a game which gets him to around 225 touches a year. Once Hill and Burk went down, he had to be the bellcow who toted the rock 18+ times a game.

I do think Sony will be much better in the passing game in 2019 and at the end of the year be around 700-900 yds rushing and 400yds+ receiving.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

So here is where my head is at with him.

My belief is I don't think they wanted him to have the kind of workload he did last year. Originally, I think they wanted him to be more like a 2015 Dion Lewis role. 10-12 carries a game. 3-5 catches a game which gets him to around 225 touches a year. Once Hill and Burk went down, he had to be the bellcow who toted the rock 18+ times a game.

I do think Sony will be much better in the passing game in 2019 and at the end of the year be around 800-900 yds rushing and 400yds+ receiving.

He produces best when he's fed carries. Look at his post season production -- over 110 yards and 2 TDs with over 20 carries per game. He missed 3 regular season games and still had 209 carries. If he's healthy for 16 games, I'd be absolutely shocked if he only ends up with 10.5 carries a game. I suppose we'll find out, but my guess is he does about 1/4 to 1/2 as much as you project in the passing game and instead hits roughly 15 carries a game (240 for the season).

 

[reflexblue]

Last season I really wanted to like Sony Michel but nothing really seemed to stick out to me about him.

He had:
Pretty good speed.
Pretty good agility.
Pretty good power.
Pretty good acceleration.
Pretty good hands.
Pretty good at breaking tackles.

How was this guy doing much better than just pretty good?

Answer: Exceptional vision.

He always seems to take the most efficient and optimal path to get the most amount of yardage given his physical ability. Here's a great video to see if you agree.

I'd never seen Sony M run in college, but from what i read on here he had much great accelration and speed in before he entered the pros. I think he was probably hurt last year, so hopefully hes back to the player he was in college.

 

[RobertWeathers]

He produces best when he's fed carries. Look at his post season production -- over 110 yards and 2 TDs with over 20 carries per game. He missed 3 regular season games and still had 209 carries. If he's healthy for 16 games, I'd be absolutely shocked if he only ends up with 10.5 carries a game. I suppose we'll find out, but my guess is he does about 1/4 to 1/2 as much as you project in the passing game and instead hits roughly 15 carries a game (240 for the season).

Not arguing his potential or effectiveness. By no means am I advocating less Sony. Just stating for reasons around health and optimizing his talents, I think at the start of 2018 they envisioned using him differently than they did last year and would like to explore that possibility again.

 

[203Pat]

I believe Harris was drafted to take carries from Sony. I think they know Sony’s knee may not hold up with the wear and tear of a full season as a bell cow back. I think he was given more carries last year than they would have liked but was the only true “rusher” when Jeremy Hill went down. I would not be surprised at all if statistically his production drops but if it helps keep him (and all the other backs) healthy then who cares?

 

[patfanken]

I think the OP is RIGHT on the money with his thoughts on Michel. I wasn't thrilled that he was picked so high. Though if he had gone in the 2nd or 3rd round I would have LOVED the pick. Funny how that goes.

Here's what I DIDN'T see from Michel last season. He didn't move the pile hardly ever. It wasn't a surprise. He simply isn't that big. But the Pats success on 3rd and short plays wasn't as good as when they had a LGB type runner. He didn't show any explosive acceleration or change of direction like a DLewis. His ability to make people miss and get yards after first contact weren't what you'd hope to see from a first round RB.

What I DID see from him was that extraordinary vision that the OP noted that consistently allowed him to get to the right place almost all of the time. It's not exactly a thing that makes you jump out of your seat and go "Wow", but it is a critically important asset for him to be able to maximize a running play. Getting the most out of a play consistently is a great asset.

I DID think that despite the injury hiccups he had during TC and the time when he was bent backward flat Sony proved that he was "available". For the last 11 games of the season, Sony was the "bell cow" RB the Pats needed to win a Superbowl. As we all know, "availability" is often the best "ability" to have. He was there for us this past year, but how it will work over the long haul remains to be seen. With his knee situation, 4 more years as a quality RB seems like a VERY long ways away.

I also think RW has it right on the amount of carries Michel and the rest of the RB's will get. I think he will be more involved as a passing option this year, but will lose some 3rd and short/GL opportunities to Harris.

Lots of talent in the RB room this year, but that's what we were saying LAST year at this time. However given relative health for Michel, Harris, Burkhead and White, I don't think Sony will get enough carries to get to 1000 yds.....and I won't be unhappy.

What I'm going to look at with Sony this season is his ypc stats and receiving yds. THAT's where I want to see some of that 2nd year jump this season.

 

[Zuma]

I wasn't crazy about drafting Sony in the first round...as others have mentioned...but we probably don't get to the Superbowl without him...and win it. So even if he has serious knee issues a few years down the road and can no longer contribute...it was worth it IMO. Harris is going to help take some of the load of that knee...so that's probably another good draft pick. I think White should have 2-3 carries a game to keep the defense on their heels...gotta keep 'em honest. Burkhead? Bolden has more career carries, yards and a higher ypc then Burkhead, he is more valuable on Special Teams and he is not often injured. If Sony is hurt...Harris will pick up the slack. If Harris is hurt then Sony has it. If they are both hurt...then were kinda screwed regardless if Burkhead or Bolden carries the rock....so why keep both? Bolden is more reliable in regards to actually playing then Burkhead and maybe that's more important if our 2 main ball carriers go down.