My Random Draft Thoughts Thread

[manxman2601]

Forgive the indulgence, but As we get so close to the draft, I have a bunch of thoughts rumbling round in my head and I just wanted to sort through them.

1. Terry McLaurin and Mecole Hardman are two of my favourite WRs to be picks for the Patriots. Not necessarily because I think they’re great receivers (although I really like McLaurin) but because I see an easy route for them to be on the roster. McLaurin is the next gen Slater. Ace gunner and a leader in the dressing room and I think will ultimately be an upgrade to Dorsett. And Hardman is all about the returns. We lost Patterson and I really would rather not have Edelman back on punt returns.

2. Noah Fant. I do think there’s a strong chance he’ll be on the board at 21 and be in position to trade up with the Seahawks. But I’m conflicted. I’m not too worried about his blocking because he shows willingness and can be coached up. But his drops concern me, as does his seeming lack of wiggle after the catch. I was hoping he’d be like Hernandez after the catch, but he’s more direct than that. His burst certainly gets him YAC but ideally I’d like more. On the flip side though, we don’t often get a chance to draft someone with that level of upside and he’s effectively a WR in a TE body and I love the mismatch that creates. I’m leaning towards the trade up being the right thing to do because you don’t often get to transition from one star player at a position to another potential one relatively seamlessly. I’m not saying he’ll be as good as Gronk obviously, but that he can be a key featured part of our offense. So long as he doesn’t become Eric Ebron...which is my concern.

3. With the glut of OTs and WRs we’ve had reported contact with, two we haven’t that we know of are Parris Campbell and Max Scharping. Which is interesting when you consider that Campbell’s comp is Percy Harvin, a player we know BB loved, and that Scharping is one of the few OTs that has genuine flexibility at both RT and LT. He’s a genuine swing tackle.

4. I’m warming to the idea of triple dipping at WR. I’ve seen some boards with McLaurin in the 3rd round as well as some in the top 40. He’s all over the place. If he does last that long, I quite like the idea of Boykin, McLaurin and then maybe a slot like Hardman or Garry Jennings. Now there’s no guarantee they’d all hit, but that gives you an x, a Z and a slot for the next four years (effectively 3 because I don’t think their production will be that high this year). But it would mean the core of our receiver corps (pardon the pun) will be super cheap for the next three years.

5. Nick Allegretti (IOL Illinois) and Nick Easley (slot WR Iowa) are two of my favourites for round 7/UDFA. Both are ideal Patriots.

6. I’m coming round to Irv Smith if we don’t trade up for Fant. I don’t love him and I certainly don’t at 32, but I do like the relatively high floor.

7. I do like Jarrett Stidham’s upside. Yes, he’s a mess right now, but “we can rebuild him” - showing my age there. I see him a bit like Ryan Mallett. Take him in the 3rd and see if you can get something out of him. There’s plenty of upside to be tapped into.

More to follow.

 

[manxman2601]

Hello Matthew Slat....Terry McLaurin

 

[manxman2601]

Re my issues about trading up for Fant. If we don’t, Big Dex is top of my board. The only other guys likely to be available I’d want to take at 32 without considering a trade back are Tillery, Simmons, Lindstrom or AJ Brown.

 

[manxman2601]

 

[zimmy]

Reiss indicating Pats have serious interest in Hardman is music to my ears. I've been on him for a couple of months now. If we can't get Campbell or Deebo I would love to double dip at Georgia again for Ridley and Hardman.

 

[manxman2601]

Reiss indicating Pats have serious interest in Hardman is music to my ears. I've been on him for a couple of months now. If we can't get Campbell or Deebo I would love to double dip at Georgia again for Ridley and Hardman.

The interest in Hardman seems legit. I could easily take Ridley. One of the best route runners in the draft.

 

[Flash]

I wouldn't mind drafting Fant but man reading the old Eric Ebron prospect profile on nfl.com and it was...scary in that if you replace Ebron's name with Noah Fant, the description is pretty much spot on. Even their height, weight, arm length are extremely close. The only difference is that Ebron didn't do any agility drills while Fant had an outstanding 3-cone.

But to be fair the Lions are a complete dumpster fire, so maybe Ebron never reached full potential because he was on the Lions. He was a Pro Bowler this year so maybe there is hope for Fant? I think that since Belichick cares a lot about blocking, Fant will be worked to bones to become at least a serviceable blocker. Idk enough about concentration drops, not sure if anyone coming out of college with concentration drops ever fixed them.

 

[mgteich]

I don't see Belichick making Josh and Brady play with 3 rookie WR's. Perhaps, you are thinking of a late pick on the Practice Squad?

As you know, barring injuries, if we draft a player in the first 4 rounds, he makes the 53.

.

4. I’m warming to the idea of triple dipping at WR. I’ve seen some boards with McLaurin in the 3rd round as well as some in the top 40. He’s all over the place. If he does last that long, I quite like the idea of Boykin, McLaurin and then maybe a slot like Hardman or Garry Jennings. Now there’s no guarantee they’d all hit, but that gives you an x, a Z and a slot for the next four years (effectively 3 because I don’t think their production will be that high this year). But it would mean the core of our receiver corps (pardon the pun) will be super cheap for the next three years.

 

[mgteich]

I wouldn't think that Belichick would draft (never mind trade up for) a TE who would needs to work to be a serviceable blocker.

I.I think that since Belichick cares a lot about blocking, Fant will be worked to bones to become at least a serviceable blocker. .

 

[mgteich]

Hartman would be our #5 WR/KR/PR.

Are there other top (1st 4 rounds) WR's who are top returners?

Reiss indicating Pats have serious interest in Hardman is music to my ears. I've been on him for a couple of months now. If we can't get Campbell or Deebo I would love to double dip at Georgia again for Ridley and Hardman.

 

[SBLIII]

10 thoughts:

1)Put emphasis on what matters, can your QB throw the football and can you stop the other QB from throwing the football; pass rush, coverage ability, protection.
Since we have our QB for now put emphasis on the other 3 premium positions. Edge or pass rushing DT, CB and OT.

2) AJ Brown is the best WR in the draft. If he falls to 32 I will gladly take him despite WR not being a value position.

3) TE is very low on my priority list. I think we would be fine with no TEs being drafted in the first 4 rounds.

4) This QB class stinks. Pass on the whole class.

5) The DL class is talented but not as deep as people think. If we take a DL we have to do it early or late. Not much value in rounds 2 and 3.

6) We'll find starters at WR in rounds 3 and 4.

7) The LB class is not good but there is good depth is there. Coney, Tranquill, the Stanford kid, Joseph would be good picks between 97 and 134.

8) Several RBs are going to fall far. Might scoop up a decent one in round 6 even.

9) I don't think we will trade up from 32.

10) my favorite targets per round for us
1 Tillery, Lawrence, Brown, Risner, Little
2 Omenihu, Thornhill, Long, Allen, Samuel
3 Edoga, Scharping, JJAW, Oliver, Coney
4 Froholdt, Nate Davis, Redwine, Diontae Johnson

 

[manxman2601]

I don't see Belichick making Josh and Brady play with 3 rookie WR's. Perhaps, you are thinking of a late pick on the Practice Squad?

As you know, barring injuries, if we draft a player in the first 4 rounds, he makes the 53.

I don’t think they’d need to play that often although a lot of that depends on DT and Josh Gordon. They plus Edelman and Dorsett would get most of the reps with the rookies acting as backups/special teams in year one as they learn the offense. I don’t think our offense would be any easier to learn for a 1st round receiver as it would a 2nd or 3rd round one so wherever and whomever we draft, the issues are the same.

 

[manxman2601]

10 thoughts:

1)Put emphasis on what matters, can your QB throw the football and can you stop the other QB from throwing the football; pass rush, coverage ability, protection.
Since we have our QB for now put emphasis on the other 3 premium positions. Edge or pass rushing DT, CB and OT.

2) AJ Brown is the best WR in the draft. If he falls to 32 I will gladly take him despite WR not being a value position.

3) TE is very low on my priority list. I think we would be fine with no TEs being drafted in the first 4 rounds.

4) This QB class stinks. Pass on the whole class.

5) The DL class is talented but not as deep as people think. If we take a DL we have to do it early or late. Not much value in rounds 2 and 3.

6) We'll find starters at WR in rounds 3 and 4.

7) The LB class is not good but there is good depth is there. Coney, Tranquill, the Stanford kid, Joseph would be good picks between 97 and 134.

8) Several RBs are going to fall far. Might scoop up a decent one in round 6 even.

9) I don't think we will trade up from 32.

10) my favorite targets per round for us
1 Tillery, Lawrence, Brown, Risner, Little
2 Omenihu, Thornhill, Long, Allen, Samuel
3 Edoga, Scharping, JJAW, Oliver, Coney
4 Froholdt, Nate Davis, Redwine, Diontae Johnson

I’m coming round to much of this thinking. I’ve been running some simulations and I struggle to make the trade up for Fant work. I think I’m with you. OL,DT, AJ at 32 or after a trade back. If they miss out on Lawrence/Tillery/Simmons, I think they could just sign a FA DT like Bailey or even Shelton.

 

[manxman2601]

Hartman would be our #5 WR/KR/PR.

Are there other top (1st 4 rounds) WR's who are top returners?

Harry returns punts but I don’t know about kickoffs and Deebo is visa versa.

 

[mgteich]

Harry returns punts but I don’t know about kickoffs and Deebo is visa versa.

Neither does both regularly, although deb has a couple of punt returns.

2018 Football Cumulative Statistics - Arizona State University Athletics

Deebo Samuel College Stats | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

 

[mgteich]

I think that we need to consider how many rosters spots will be used by WR's. For me, 4 plus a returner is the right number.

If Edelman, Gordon, DT and Dorsett will get the reps as you indicate, there isn't much room for rookies. If we carry a returner, one of the four would likely often be inactive.

I don’t think they’d need to play that often although a lot of that depends on DT and Josh Gordon. They plus Edelman and Dorsett would get most of the reps with the rookies acting as backups/special teams in year one as they learn the offense. I don’t think our offense would be any easier to learn for a 1st round receiver as it would a 2nd or 3rd round one so wherever and whomever we draft, the issues are the same.

 

[manxman2601]

I think that we need to consider how many rosters spots will be used by WR's. For me, 4 plus a returner is the right number.

If Edelman, Gordon, DT and Dorsett will get the reps as you indicate, there isn't much room for rookies. If we carry a returner, one of the four would likely often be inactive.

True. Or, at least, true until there’s an injury. But that doesn’t stop them practicing and learning.

 

[manxman2601]

Neither does both regularly, although deb has a couple of punt returns.

2018 Football Cumulative Statistics - Arizona State University Athletics

Deebo Samuel College Stats | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

Which is why I think Mecole is so valuable.

 

[mgteich]

I'm not tracking.

Are you suggesting that we carry 3 rookie WR's on the 53 in addition to Edelman, DT, Gordon and Dorsett? If not, how many? And how many would be after the 4th round?

True. Or, at least, true until there’s an injury. But that doesn’t stop them practicing and learning.

 

[manxman2601]

Not my final mock but this is an attempt to create a realistic mock that takes into account our final roster. I used the CBS big board.

Trade: DET trade 43,88 for 32, 134

I’m going pessimistic here and am assuming Big Dex, AJ Brown and Lindstrom are off the board so I trade back looking for an OT.

43. Greg Little, OT, Ole Miss

I considered Risner and McGary here. McGary makes more sense athletically but both he and Risner aren’t LTs so I went with the extra versatility allowed by Little. He can be a swing tackle year one, can replace Wynn if he doesn’t measure up at LT or replace Cannon in 2020 if necessary. It also allows for Wynn to move inside and replace Thuney if they don’t re-sign him. Little allows for more flexibility than the other two.

56. Irv Smith Jnr, TE, Alabama

Admittedly not the most exciting TE on offer but I decided to go with the high floor. We can always draft a more exciting TE another time but for 2019, we need someone who can get on the field and produce early. Will work in tandem with ASJ.

64. Khalen Saunders, DT, W Illinois

I reeeeaallly wanted to draft Terry McLaurin here as I think he’s the perfect Pat and an accomplished receiver to boot but I have other ideas for the WR position so as I missed out on DT at 32, I went with the most exciting next best thing. Saunders has rare athleticism. He’ll need work, but with Guy and Pennell, he doesn’t have to start and there’s still the possibility of signing a FA like Allen Bailey or Danny Shelton if necessary.

73. Mecole Hardman, WR, Georgia

This is the guy I feel is the one I’ll think they’ll pick especially as I learned today that they gave him a late private workout following a visit. He comes from a scheme the Pats know can translate, he offers the speed the Patriots want and is a dual threat returner which is something we need.

88. Trade with DET for 2020 3rd and 111

I forgot my initial trade was with Detroit but the team doesn’t matter. BB gets his annual future pick.

97. Trade with Atlanta for Mohamed Sanu

This is why I couldn’t bring myself to draft McLaurin. Just too many receivers. The Pats showed interest in Sanu before he signed with ATL and the Falcons are up against the cap with Julio to sign. He doesn’t come cheap at 15m over the next two years but at least we get an experienced vet rather than trying to rely on rookies.

101 Trade to NYG for 142, 143, 2020 4th

Didn’t want that huge gap between the end of the 3rd and the 6th round.

111. Ben Banogu, LB, TCU

One of the gaps we still have on the roster is special teams linebacker and this where I see Banogu initially. But, I also see him in the long-term as either a Derek Rivers replacement or even Van Noy’s eventual Replacement. Banogu has ridiculous athleticism. Interestingly, two of his athletic comps are Mark Anderson and Andre Carter. Another is Jordan Willis whom you may remember. I think it’s a risk worth taking in the 4th round.


142. Bobby Okereke, LB, Stanford

I don’t think we’re desperate for linebackers, but the fact that Okereke was worked out by Nick Caserio got my attention. And I know @reamer is a fan and that’s recommendation enough.

143. Stanley Morgan Jnr, WR, Nebraska

Doesn’t have special size or athleticism but Morgan is one of my favourite receivers in the draft. A candidate for the Foxboro flu with a view to being on the roster next year.

205. Derek Baity, CB, Kentucky

We’ve looked at 3 CBs in this pre-draft process including Baity. They all have one thing in common. They’re all 6’2” or better. BB is clearly considering a type. But with the roster as it’s currently constructed, I couldn’t really justify drafting one high so opted for Baity. One other thing of note with Baity is that his no1 comparable on mockdraftable is Aqib Talib.

239. Byron Cowart, DL, Maryland

A former top recruit who’s career has gone somewhat awry and I think it’s worth taking a shot at resurrecting it. He’s an outside/inside guy who could play a role similar to Trey Flowers although he’s bigger at 298lbs. A PS candidate with an outside shot at making the team

243. Yosuah Nijman, OT, W VirginiA

He has Nate Solder’s athleticism and size but lousy technique. A candidate for Dante’s attention but like Conor McDermott a couple of years ago, a long shot. But there is upside potential there so why not?

246. Alexander Mattison, RB, Boise St.

I love this guy. A hard running north-south runner who can block, catch and rarely fumbles. The comps I’ve seen for him are Alex Collins and Mike Gillislee. Another PS candidate, but he could take some pressure off Michel if required. A safe, if not overly dynamic, pair of hands.

252. Nick Allegretti, OL, Illinois

Another prospect I think is a great fit. He’s a two time team captain, a former wrestler and has been worked out by the Pats and, of course, we already have Ted Karras from the same school. A lock for any future mock from me.

So there you have it. Plenty of picks that I think can be fitted on the roster, a veteran WR to ease the pain of transition and two future picks in next year’s draft. I can think of more exciting mocks but I was trying for realistic.