The draft

[farn]

Brady actually looked really good in preseason his first year here, which is why nobody was that surprised when they kept 4 QBs

I got a few "disagrees" when I clearly remember not only was Bledsoe v Brady a thing, but even Cassel v Brady was a thing... pretty sure an honest poll of fans way back in 2000 would have revealed that "fans thinking Brady was the chosen one" were a minority.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I've been here since last year. We could easily trade back up & still have a 2nd & at least 1 3rd depending on how far we want to go. Very little difference between picks 20 & our 2nd rd spots imo.

We'll still be loaded this year & next year.

Example for this year.
I see tons of posters wanting AJ Brown & Dex. I like both but both are low ceiling, not one dimensional but not the most versatile prospects. Not the guys I'm running to the podium for in the 1st.

Counter point bc I'm crazy. Bill knows & likes exactly what hes getting from both. No surprises. Big slot in AJ & 2 down stuffer w Dex. I see the same arguement for Irv Smith & a few others.

Dex stands out because there's not a lot of high-level options after him. I see a number of role players in this DT class, but no one who looks like a big upgrade in the middle of the line. Brown's big slot role could potentially be handled by any number of draft options, although probably not on as high of a level. I'm fine with using 32 overall for a guy we have a clear role for -- similar to Michel last year. Despite my general dislike for a 1st round RB, he fit a need and he helped power us to a championship.

With you that trading is probably smartest option.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Dex stands out because there's not a lot of high-level options after him. I see a number of role players in this DT class, but no one who looks like a big upgrade in the middle of the line. Brown's big slot role could potentially be handled by any number of draft options, although probably not on as high of a level. I'm fine with using 32 overall for a guy we have a clear role for -- similar to Michel last year. Despite my general dislike for a 1st round RB, he fit a need and he helped power us to a championship.

With you that trading is probably smartest option.

I remember saying the same a few months back maybe im just not as high on Dex.

Dex in 1 or Mack, Gaines, Russell, Christmas etc in 4-5?

 

[primetime]

Most of the prospects already are insured against loss of value. Thats no reason.

There is a better chance to get hurt on the streets or climbing stairs than at a QB workout as part of a draft visit.

This is not the combine he would not do any major workouts. Like 60% of those visits is sitting in a room talking to various people in the org. The rest is throwing a couple balls.

Suggesting to sit out for injury risk is absolutely ridiculous.

Because it's a waste of his time?

Also, loss-of-value riders are extremely difficult to collect on. There's only been one or two that have ever been successfully collected (Chance Warmack is the only one I'm sure on), and the insurers will fight them tooth and nail, so you end up having to sue to get it (see Malik Jefferson, who's going through that exact thing right now). In the end it might cost you more to collect than the payout... and that's assuming you even win the suit. (Most likely you settle for a fraction of the max payout.)

The cost of a policy that would protect you from sliding from what's very likely to be the 1st pick to the bottom half of the first round or beyond would be astronomical because you're talking about tens of millions of dollars, and that's what Murray would have to do. What's the point of risking it? Much like most insurance that's not tightly regulated, those policies are basically scams.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I remember saying the same a few months back maybe im just not as high on Dex.

Dex in 1 or Mack, Gaines, Russell, Christmas etc in 4-5?

Oh I totally hear you. Russell at 134 (or ideally 205) would be fine by me. I'm of the opinion that if Dex lost 20 pounds, though, then he could be a terrific all around threat with far more pass rushing potential than any of those other players, while still giving you better snaps against the run. He's not a very refined player, though, which is surprising with that Clemson line. Give him Ferrell's handwork and he'd go top 15 I'll bet.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Oh I totally hear you. Russell at 134 (or ideally 205) would be fine by me. I'm of the opinion that if Dex lost 20 pounds, though, then he could be a terrific all around threat with far more pass rushing potential than any of those other players, while still giving you better snaps against the run. He's not a very refined player, though, which is surprising with that Clemson line. Give him Ferrell's handwork and he'd go top 15 I'll bet.

When I'm looking at & grading a DT in terms of pass rush I want to see how he takes advantage/makes use of the space around him post-snap.
At times you'll have room to almost run an arc, establish 1/2 man or work a path to a QB.

Besides the occasional bull rush I dont see him doing any of these. I'd definitely be all for losing a few lbs.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I'm telling you Bill loves this dude lol

 

[manxman2601]

I'm telling you Bill loves this dude lol

Just seen a Delanie Walker comp for him. I do think the ASJ signing opens things up for Irv.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Just seen a Delanie Walker comp for him. I do think the ASJ signing opens things up for Irv.

I’ll take a Delanie Walker type...

 

[DarrylS]

You can’t possibly think Ettling is our future at QB...

What evidence do you have that indicates he is not?? Remember when #12 was drafted, he was essentially red shirted his first year and was in the shadow of Drew.. I do not have any idea if Ettling has a future in the NFL, but we will know more come training camp.

 

[manxman2601]

I’ll take a Delanie Walker type...

Smith is a good high floor prospect. I don’t think his ceiling is the highest but if you’re looking for a safish pick then Hockenson might be the only one better. He’s not my favourite because I don’t love his ceiling but considering our need at the position, he might be the best bet to get reliable production out of. We could always find a better TE1 next year or the year after.

 

[primetime]

What evidence do you have that indicates he is not?? Remember when #12 was drafted, he was essentially red shirted his first year and was in the shadow of Drew.. I do not have any idea if Ettling has a future in the NFL, but we will know more come training camp.

Come on. There has been one Tom Brady in the history of the NFL. The balance of probabilities would suggest Danny Etling never takes a snap in anger; the majority of late round QBs never play a regular season game and even among the ones who do, John Navarres and Keith Nulls are more the norm than Marc Bulgers or Tyrod Taylors, let alone Tom Brady. No one has any evidence that Etling isn't Brady but we also don't have any evidence that Damoun Patterson isn't the next Jerry Rice and that Christian Sam isn't secretly Lawrence Taylor.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Smith is a good high floor prospect. I don’t think his ceiling is the highest but if you’re looking for a safish pick then Hockenson might be the only one better. He’s not my favourite because I don’t love his ceiling but considering our need at the position, he might be the best bet to get reliable production out of. We could always find a better TE1 next year or the year after.

My gut tells me Bill will go with someone safe at 32, if he does indeed hold onto the pick. Someone like Dexter Lawrence or Chris Lindstrom...those are solid players that will anchor their respective lines for 10 years potentially. I'll be happy with that, especially big Dexter Lawrence.

 

[mgteich]

It would be good to have someone that we can count on for solid reps in 2019. I understand that the draft is where we get future stars. However, sometimes, for one position, we NEED current year production.

Smith is a good high floor prospect. I don’t think his ceiling is the highest but if you’re looking for a safish pick then Hockenson might be the only one better. He’s not my favourite because I don’t love his ceiling but considering our need at the position, he might be the best bet to get reliable production out of. We could always find a better TE1 next year or the year after.

 

[Love The Drake]

Smith is a good high floor prospect. I don’t think his ceiling is the highest but if you’re looking for a safish pick then Hockenson might be the only one better. He’s not my favourite because I don’t love his ceiling but considering our need at the position, he might be the best bet to get reliable production out of. We could always find a better TE1 next year or the year after.

I'd take Know Warring and Conrad over Smith.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Just seen a Delanie Walker comp for him. I do think the ASJ signing opens things up for Irv.

You think we double dip at TE bc of ASJ or no?

 

[jboston19]

You think we double dip at TE bc of ASJ or no?

He’s currently on a one year deal, so I don’t think it precludes them from drafting a second TE if they like that player.

 

[mgteich]

You think we double dip at TE bc of ASJ or no?

I too want to see opinions on this. For me, ASJ is hopefully part of the solution. However, we need 3 TE's. I have little confidence that any others that we have would be capable of starting if for any reason ASJ is unavailable. Drafting 2 to confidently get one seems right. We need a 2019 contributor. One player ready to contribute (like Smith) seems right, even if his ceiling is lower than others.

Given our number of picks, and the value at TE in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, double dipping seems right.

 

[manxman2601]

You think we double dip at TE bc of ASJ or no?

Probably not, at least not in the first four rounds. They have plenty of bodies for the position now. But then ASJ doesn’t prevent you if there’s someone you really want so who knows?

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I too want to see opinions on this. For me, ASJ is hopefully part of the solution. However, we need 3 TE's. I have little confidence that any others that we have would be capable of starting if for any reason ASJ is unavailable. Drafting 2 to confidently get one seems right. We need a 2019 contributor. One player ready to contribute (like Smith) seems right, even if his ceiling is lower than others.

Given our number of picks, and the value at TE in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, double dipping seems right.

Reason I asked bc ASJ seems like the prospect we really like but wouldn't draft for obvious reasons. Makes sense we'd monitor him & take a shot if we felt he straightened himself out.