WRs: Every team but one

[law241]

It just is what it is. We will go WR shopping in the bargain basement bin yet again.

Bill will mold this team, as best he can, to combat league trends. The result will most likely be us being one of the five or six best teams in the league. We will either outplay and outexecute more talented teams and win a title, or we won't. But, outside of 2004 and 2007, when has this team ever just been clearly the most talented team in the league? We are competitive every year and have been for nearly two decades, but it comes at a cost. We almost never just splurge and go all out, trading the future to secure the short term. It's just the way things are here. It can be frustrating at times, but it's hard to argue with the results.

The one thing that mystifies me is their refusal to hire a comptent WR scout. It would be HUGE if they could find some young, cost controlled playmakers in the draft like the Steelers, for example, seem to do regularly. For whatever reason, that is a blind spot with this organization. TE isn't great either. Their track record is overshadowed by getting arguably the GOAT TE in round 2 along with Hernandez. The next best picks have been Graham and Watson, who were fairly mediocre. The others were busts. And they have used a lot of draft capital on the position and signed a lot of low cost free agents. If they can have an ethics coach, why can't they hire a good WR scout?

Some of it is out of their control. For example: Cole Beasley would have been a great replacement for Amendola. Turns out money is more important to him than winning, even after having very little playoff success.

I'm tired of watching patchwork WR corps, but we have six titles in less than 20 years, and could easily have 10. I'll live with it.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

@OP @patchick

Lets first focus on what there is on the roster and on 2019. Its a 1 year league basically, more and more so and for the most part BB sees it like that as well (with a bit of future in mind of course).

1. Currently on the roster:
Edelman - Dorsett - Harris - Ellington - Berrios - D.Patterson

2. Gordon (Gronk)
Much of this uneducated discussion depends on how one sees Gordon situation. If you believe he can become consistent part of the unit at least for the second part of the season then you're not too worried and you're on to the Draft. If you have doubts you can be understandably be worried. Id guess FO “tentatively“ works within framework that there is a decent chance they get Gordon back but far from certain & Gronk comes back as well.

3. FA mid tier WR
Nothing but mid tier/damaged WRs are left in FA (sorry @ChrisR2223 but Conley is firmly in this cat. imo). They might still be expensive so bringing Hogan back if his market doesn't develop could make sense. I don't know how much of an upgrade others would really be considering Tom likes comfort zone.

4. Trade
BB is trying to get top dog WR for years and trade is best/most economic chance to get one. Or maybe the only chance short term. So top players who are not extended yet or are on rebuild teams/new FO could be considered. The problem is there are not many of them and the moment you ask about them and the team is willing to deal them they will create competition that is always most unfavourable for NE. But as Cooks case showed it is possible and it makes sense even if it doesn't work out.

5. Draft
Im not sure where the idea of great WR draft is coming from? Maybe @reamer @BaconGrundleCandy could fill us in with reality. In any case there is not a great chance 2019 team gets top or even significant production from a rookie.
One rookie who could make real impact in Pats 2019 O might be TE TJ Hockenson!
(but im not going for another Kittle heartbreak just yet..)

6. The process
Patriots usually bring 10-11 WRs to TC. Reports are Gordon could be reinstated by then but far from given. With 6 on the roster they will bring in 4-5 more WRs.
___

My guess would be:
> 1 more UFA in the 6 comp pick range (Hogan or similar).
> a trade for top tier to above average WR looks very possible at the moment if they can find opportunity.
> maybe double dip in the Draft - but not before 3rd round
> a couple of UDFAs or more
___

As you might've guessed im not worried. This team already made a nice transition from a passing to a more rushing/playaction offense. Losing Allen hurts in this regard so looking at finding/developing strong blocking TE will be part of my preseason watch.

Looking forward to another Gronk year, Sony's receiving development, Gordon's second chance, healthy B-head, stepping up of Dorsett, bouncing back of J.Hollister, development of Berrios, Izzo, Anderson, Patterson and a surprise form the new guys im not too familiar with yet..

I don't have a 1st on anyone & don't think it's great. Bunch of guys that could help but next years class looks like a potential great class.

I agree that Hock & imho Fant as well tear it up here. Either one of those guys has a Pats uni on & they make an immediate impact.

 

[mgteich]

I strongly disagree. The strategy of using a very low amount of resources on WR's has helped rather than hurt the team. Other teams simply place too much value on WR's.

.
I'm tired of watching patchwork WR corps, but we have six titles in less than 20 years, and could easily have 10. I'll live with it.

 

[Steve102]

I still see his posts. No great loss on my end

Deus blocked me too.

I've found with him the minute you prove he has lost his mind on one of his absurd takes he can't handle it and he either belittles or blocks you.

I can see blocking me but blocking someone like @patfanken who has deep knowledge of the game is like sticking your head in the sand when you know someone is right.

I couldn't find your original post about blocking ken. I can't wrap my head around why someone would block Ken. I find his posts very insightful. I think I have a better grasp on the game than the average casual fan that turns it on at 1pm on Sunday. Ken brings a lot to the table, and I look forward to his breakdowns. I may not always agree with everything he says, but his knowledge is exemplary.

I don't hate on Deus, either. I think he's a bit full of himself, but we all are, from time to time.

 

[Ring 6]

I think very few on this board would be against Jules actually being paid $31m over 3 years.

Edelman’s last 13 post season games (starting with Welkers departure)
106 catches in 161 targets
1337 yards
3 TD

Team averaged over 31 ppg
11 wins 2 losses

Translated to a 16 game schedule that would be about 130/1650

 

[RobertWeathers]

I couldn't find your original post about blocking ken. I can't wrap my head around why someone would block Ken. I find his posts very insightful. I think I have a better grasp on the game than the average casual fan that turns it on at 1pm on Sunday. Ken brings a lot to the table, and I look forward to his breakdowns. I may not always agree with everything he says, but his knowledge is exemplary.

I don't hate on Deus, either. I think he's a bit full of himself, but we all are, from time to time.

Blocking Ken is idiotic and stubborn.

I don't hate Deus either but he had an absolutely ridiculous take on SB51. I challenged him on it. He put me down and insulted me. I ripped him a new one and called him out on his historically elitist behavior and he took his ball and went home. In a normal world we'd apologize, call it a bad day and move on but internet boards don't work that way. I should have taken the high road but he set me off. Emotions were flying after that game. Oh well.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Edelman’s last 13 post season games (starting with Welkers departure)
106 catches in 161 targets
1337 yards
3 TD

Team averaged over 31 ppg
11 wins 2 losses

Translated to a 16 game schedule that would be about 130/1650

They should just give him one of those Jerry Buss/Magic Johnson lifetime contracts just to make it up to him.

 

[Ring 6]

Edelman’s last 13 post season games (starting with Welkers departure)
106 catches in 161 targets
1337 yards
3 TD

Team averaged over 31 ppg
11 wins 2 losses

Translated to a 16 game schedule that would be about 130/1650

Interesting side note

Brady before welker
6 years
12-2
3 championships
25.3 ppg
0 one and done

Brady with welker
6 years (Brady dnp 2008 welker dnp playoffs 2009)
5-5
0 championships
24 ppg
2 one and dones

Brady after welker
6 years
13-3
3 Championships
31.2 ppg
0 one and dones

Obviously there are other factors and welker was very good here, but the correlation is astounding.

12 years without welker 25-5 6 championships
6 years with welker 5-5 0 championships

 

[Wingy]

Obviously there are other factors and welker was very good here, but the correlation is astounding.

12 years without welker 25-5 6 championships
6 years with welker 5-5 0 championships

I mean...what do we expect? Dude tried to make Brady throw AND catch the ball.

 

[maust]

Also, 20 years is a strange cut off for the great-wide-receivers-in-the-Super-Bowl debate, since it ignores the dominance of Irvin and Rice, among others, who earned multiple championships each. I'm not sure they were simply fungible components in the passing attack. But sure, maybe the game has changed (or maybe trends are simply observed outcomes, not predictive analysis).

I would say in terms of the nature of this WR discussion 20-25 years as a cutoff would be reflective of the cap era. Allocation of cap resources has more than a little to do with how the position is viewed in the overall discussion

 

[patchick]

I would say in terms of the nature of this WR discussion 20-25 years as a cutoff would be reflective of the cap era. Allocation of cap resources has more than a little to do with how the position is viewed in the overall discussion

Maybe we should take it a step further. To actually judge the impact of WRs, shouldn't we be looking at this for every position/stat to see if WR is an outlier?

For instance:
-In the salary cap era only one NFL sack leader has won the Super Bowl (Kevin Carter, back in 1999)
-In the salary cap era one one NFL rushing leader has won the Super Bowl (Terrell Davins, back in 1998)
-In the salary cap era zero NFL tackle leaders have won the Super Bowl

IOW, the general trend is at exactly chance level over time leaguewide. It's almost as if individual stats of non-QB players just don't predict Super Bowl victories, so that isn't a worthwhile metric of positional value. Go figure.