From a Chiefs Fan Perspective

[Patriot Missile]

Still tickets to the game available. Some outlet is predicting 21% Pats fans attendance. Travel well to the ones attending.

 

[fair catch fryar]

All good points, but you seem to neglect that Belichick's success in the playoffs against high-octane offenses has been the ability to scheme and take away what you do best. Mahomes' bread and butter is Kelce and Hill. That would force Reid to try and run the ball more which gives me more hope of winning the game because you no longer have Hunt.

 

[maineman209]

I think the game will be in the 20s. Freezing weather/wind/Patriots trying to run clock. I think the Chiefs are big favorites.

What "wind"? It's been forecast to be relatively calm (~5mph) for about a week now.

 

[Double TE]

What "wind"? It's been forecast to be relatively calm (~5mph) for about a week now.

My weather app says 10-15mph in the evening. IDK? I am not a weatherman.

 

[maineman209]

They haven't looked as good on the road compared to home. That is worrisome. As is the fact they've lost by ten points or more (Titans, Jags, Lions) in three of said road games. The penalties in the Pittsburgh game were concerning as well.

Fine. I'll give them the Chicago game. Might be their most impressive road win of the season. But the pattern shows this team generally struggles on the road in 2018. I have no idea why either. Maybe it's a coincidence. If they win in KC, none of the road struggles will matter. But in order to evaluate this game, you cannot ignore how they've performed away from Gillette Stadium.

Offensive skill positions were understaffed by about 1/3rd @JAX and @DET. Waddle played RT in place of Cannon for all of the JAX game and about half of the DET game. The Pats defense was without Chung and Flowers for most of the JAX game and all of the DET game.

Context matters.

 

[maineman209]

They allowed twice as many points on the road. That definitly comes down to more than just quality of opponents

They allowed 31 and 26 to JAX and DET, respectively. The defense was without Flowers for both those games and without Chung from halftime of the JAX game through the DET game (both had concussions). And JC Jackson had yet to emerge.

 

[luuked]

And JC Jackson had yet to emerge.

Another good instance of Lombardi's aphorism about injuries:

Sometimes you 're one injury away from being a good playoff team.

Who knows how things go if Rowe doesn't injure his groin this year.

 

[PikesPeakPatsFan]

When you factor in the HFA & talent on both sides, the Chiefs have more margin for error. I think they can have a few turnovers and penalties, yet still win the game.

If the Chiefs turn the ball over a few times, they won't win the game unless the Patriots turn it over several times too. If the Patriots play a turnover free game and get several takeaways, the Chiefs odds of winning go WAY down. The Chiefs do have more margin for error being at home but if they toss 2 picks and give up a fumble and the Patriots play turnover free, that margin of error shrinks to a sliver at best.

 

[IllegalContact]

Exactly, a great quarterback can change everything. Pats didn’t become the Pats until Brady.

the Pats have always been the Pats.......best rushing attack in the history of the game in the 70's and in the SB every decade since then

 

[luuked]

I think they can have a few turnovers and penalties, yet still win the game.

If we win the turnover battle we most likely win the game. There is no error margin big enough in an NFL postseason game that will reasonably account for multiple turnovers.

 

[fightingirish595]

Easy for a defense to look good when they are spotted a big lead.

 

[Bradybranch]

They allowed 31 and 26 to JAX and DET, respectively. The defense was without Flowers for both those games and without Chung from halftime of the JAX game through the DET game (both had concussions). And JC Jackson had yet to emerge.

I was talking about the chiefs, unless i have my stats mixed up.

 

[1960Pats]

So just thought I'd drop in a give a balanced view from our end about the game and love to hear your thoughts.

1) Things that we have going against us in this game first and foremost is experience. The Pats have been to the AFC Championship game every year since Mahomes has been a sophomore in H.S. so that has to count for something with the players and the pressure they feel. The Chiefs have only been there once in the last 25 years and lost to the bills. So experience has to go to the Pats without question.

2) You have the GOAT and he is looking really good, the dismantling of the Chargers was a huge eye opener because many have said they have the most talent of any team in the AFC. Plus you have the best coach in the NFL.

3) overall just a really good well rounded team, good RB, WR, defense, special teams etc.

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The Chiefs biggest factors that favor them in the game are.

1) Defense, yes their defense at home plays completely different than there defense on the road. An example is here are the point totals they have given up at home this year. 27, 14, 23, 10, 14, 24, 29, 3, 13 and we average 35.1 points per game so even though the numbers may not pop out, they are much better than our road defense. We have the top unit for sacks ( not that it may matter much with how quickly Brady gets rid of the ball) but the biggest difference is our DB's are all different from our first game and they are much better than what we trotted out at safety and CB against you earlier in the year.

2) Our Offense in general, we thought after Hunt was released that it would hurt the team and while it took a couple of weeks to get it figured out it seems that Williams is running and catching the ball every bit as good as Hunt did this year. We have Sammy Watkins back so we have 4 legit play makers besides Mahomes.

3) Mahomes - I keep waiting for the wheels to come off this year for him but they never do. We haven't had one game this year where we were blown out or not looking like we have a chance, the most we have lost by was 7 but most were 3 or less. He is the best QB our team has ever had and its not even close.
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Conclusion: I think home field will matter a lot, if we were playing at your place I'd give us a 10-15% chance to win, but playing at Arrowhead I'd say its a coin flip. I think its a game that you will be able to tell by halftime what's going to happen. If Brady's on then its going to be a tough game, if he gets rattled then I think it helps us sneak out a win. I think it will be a 35-31 game either way, not sure who will win but even with the cold they are both going into the 30's.

Welcome to Patsfans RCF.

Hope to see a great game with a Pats win, but if the Pats lose I'll be rooting real hard for the Chiefs in the SB. It's time to bring the SB trophy back to the AFC where it belongs.

 

[Brandon Manning]

If the Chiefs turn the ball over a few times, they won't win the game unless the Patriots turn it over several times too. If the Patriots play a turnover free game and get several takeaways, the Chiefs odds of winning go WAY down. The Chiefs do have more margin for error being at home but if they toss 2 picks and give up a fumble and the Patriots play turnover free, that margin of error shrinks to a sliver at best.

There has only been six games (If that) all season where the Patriots have had a turnover free game. It's unlikely they play a perfectly clean game.

 

[maineman209]

Another good instance of Lombardi's aphorism about injuries:


Who knows how things go if Rowe doesn't injure his groin this year.

Good point about Rowe.

He started week-1 at LCB v. HOU, and he didn't appear on the injury report (or miss a game in 2018) until week-3 @DET. However, he only played 17 snaps in week-2 @JAX, mostly at RCB, while JMac took over at LCB.

Rowe may have injured his groin @JAX (I don't remember), but he seemed to be on his way out of the starting lineup at that point, regardless, after allowing 3 of 4 and a TD in week-1 v. HOU.

 

[PatsDeb]

Still tickets to the game available. Some outlet is predicting 21% Pats fans attendance. Travel well to the ones attending.

Wish I could go, although I don't envy anybody sitting in frigid temps. Please cheer loud and proud for out boys those that are lucky to be going!!

 

[maineman209]

I was talking about the chiefs, unless i have my stats mixed up.

Sorry. I didn't see the comment you were responding to. My bad.

 

[maineman209]

There has only been six games (If that) all season where the Patriots have had a turnover free game. It's unlikely they play a perfectly clean game.

The Pat offense piled up 13 turnovers in their first seven games, at least one per game, including three v. HOU and 3 @CHI (both were wins).

In the 10 games since, they've had only five total turnovers - three of those against BUF at Gillette in wk-16 (two picks, and a fumble by Burkhead), and one pick each off Brady v. MIN and @PIT. So, the offense has been turnover-free in seven of their last 10 games.

 

[PikesPeakPatsFan]

There has only been six games (If that) all season where the Patriots have had a turnover free game. It's unlikely they play a perfectly clean game.

I didn't claim that I thought the Patriots WOULD play a turnover free game. I was just answering the poster who said the Chiefs could turn it over "a few" times and still win. The only thing I'm saying is that if the Chiefs turn it over a few times and the Patriots don't, the odds of the Chiefs winning goes WAY down. If the Patriots turn it over a few times and don't get any takeaways to counterbalance that, they are in trouble.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

@Rational Chiefs Fan

Thanks for your informed post. This Board has a long history of welcoming opposition fans who are...um...well..."rational" and an equally long history of bouncing trolls.

I agree with most of what you write, but disagree on two points.

1) I don't think we'll be able to "tell by halftime." In support of my argument, I simply present two sets of numbers: "28--3" and "34--28." Either of these teams is capable of mounting a comeback.
2) While I agree that the game will be close, I'm sticking close to or a little below the Under/Over and think that 30 points will be enough to win it (famous last words?). I want to think about it some more, but right now I think 30--27 or 28--24 are good scores to predict. I reserve the right to change my mind depending on the wind-chill at Kickoff.

Thanks again. Looking forward to hearing more from you before Sunday afternoon.