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Idle thoughts - The road to KC edtion


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Quick question: who will the crowd noise affect most, offense or defense? Thanks
 
It could certainly affect crowd noise.
How? I've been to games colder than that and the stadium was rockin'.

Quick question: who will the crowd noise affect most, offense or defense? Thanks
Crowds get noisey to prevent the visiting team's offense from using verbal signals at the line of scrimmage. So the QB has to use hand/arm/leg gestures and go on a silent snap count. Defenses like crowd noise for that reason and it also fires them up.
 
@patfanken The only place I've seen JC Jackson listed at 6'1 is on the Patriots site. His official Combine measurements: 5096. Maybe they went off a school measurement, which we know is usually a bit inflated.
Here's another place.

J.C. Jackson

Hell, I don't need a tap measure to see that he's a lot taller than under 5'10. You've got eyes. He's over 6' tall at least.
 
I rewatched the Pats-KC game from this season on DVR and am very encouraged. KC played catch up all game. Pats looked better than I remembered from that game. I think the weather will only play to our strengths. It may even dampen the noise if people have ski masks on.
On the negative side, Gronk was still Gronk at that point
 
It could certainly affect crowd noise.
I dont understand this, crowd noise is from people yelling, how is the cold going to affect that? It's not hand clapping
 
Run Sony Run

Dee Ford and Justin Houston are in the 250lb range. Run right at em. Then play action off it.

On D we need to make them drive the whole field. Get a hand on their receivers on the line, re-route them. No free releases. No big plays.
 
On the negative side, Gronk was still Gronk at that point
He made a few good plays including a 42 yarder in fourth quarter setting up the winning field goal. I think he still has it in him for a few key catches.
 
Glad to read the pearls of wisdom by PFK...

My expectations for Gronk are low, not because he is injured or in disfavor, but because he may be more valuable as an additional blocker.. and even in that situation he is still a valuable decoy.

As far as touting the prowess of Andy Reid, hard to imagine he has achieved greatness, as I remember well Superbowl 39 with McNab throwing up on the sideline and the abysmal clock management by that Reid coached team.... I think we are so aware of clock management as we have been conditioned to how well the Patriots manage the clock.. every time I watch a game I watch the play clock.. not sure every other fandom does the same.

I also expect some creative defenses by BB and Flores, thought the gameplan against San Diego was brilliant.. less focus on rushing the passer and more on controlling the edge, with some creative use of DB's...

Is it me or does anyone else think that Phillip Rivers has some "whiny little bytch" qualities??? He was crying and complaining after every play, difficult to keep focused when all you do is whine..
 
I doubt we will see the same kind of defense vs KC. Patrick Mahomes is NOT Phillip Rivers. Rivers was a stationary target, Mahomes is most definitely not.

I agree that the pressure will be different. That being said the flipside of it is Mahomes not having Rivers' experience. He will be easier to fool with disguises, exotic looks and baited into traps than a veteran QB.

On Paper one would think the Pats have no chance. KC has all pros littered across their roster to go along with the 2 most electric offensive players in the league. Two premium pass rushers. (Houston and Ford) One premium DT (CJones) Also a premium CB and S (if Berry plays)

We have no elite rushers. We have no elite DT's. We have no elite OLmen. We have no elite receivers.

I think you are underselling our talent. Trey Flowers might be a better DE than both Houston and Ford. Berry has not played for how long ? Calling him a premium safety after he missed essentially the last two seasons at the age of 30 is a bit bold.

This might be the worst talent this team has had since 2009. And like 2009, it was a team getting ready for a serious reboot in the off season.

Again I don't see that and the regular season stats certainly don't agree. The offense took a step back for some of the year and yet we might have the best running game we had in a long time. Same with the OL. Our secondary rivals the standard we had in 2014.

Sony in the passing game. Right now the Pats have a strong tendency that when Sony is in the game, its a run, and when White is in the game it's a pass. While I don't doubt the latter will remain a fact, they CAN break that tendency by getting Sony more involved in the passing game.

I have said this multiple times already. The issue with Sony in terms of being a passing option is about how much faith you have in him in terms of pass-protection and blitz pickup. One missed assignment can be a strip sack that ends the season or at the very least turns the tide in a tight game. Just think about SB51 and the Hightower strip sack.

I would be shocked if the team suddenly puts all of that on the plate of a rookie at a championship game. Will they screw around with the tendencies a bit ? I am sure there will be some trickery from McDaniels but if they didn't trust Sony during the final stretch of the regular season to be in on passing downs I doubt it will change now.

. We are healthy....and have been for most of the season (relatively) It seemed that most of our bad injury luck happened before September was over. IIRC by the time the season started we had 8 guys on IR and then lost Burkhead and Hill very early, So the year started out really poorly, but since then the only mid-season loss was Eric Rowe and we got back Rex. I can't remember a season with this few in-season injuries.

Bingo. And that is our biggest advantage over all the other years we fell short. There is no need to stuff holes left and right because players landed on IR. Instead the same personnel grew into one cohesive unit that is able to pull off things like the Amoeba defense without major busts.
 
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I've been having a number of thoughts pop into my head this week so I thought I'd get them out on paper before an aneurysm develops. ;)

1. The previous game in October has almost NO relevance to this game. BOTH teams are far different at this point of the season. There is one factor that DOES come into play (though I haven't heard it mentioned yet). Back in 2001 the Pats faced similar speed when they first faced the Rams in the middle. of that year. They lost the game (at home), but I remember that after the
superbowl, someone made the comment that playing them earlier was important because they actually got to see that speed on the field. It is so much better to see that in real time vs on tape. So when the superbowl came about, they were much better prepared to deal with it. (and they did). To in this small regard playing them early in the year helps.

Lots of comments on THill's speed. Incredible receiver, BUT at least now they have seen that speed up close, and HOPEFULLY with be better prepared to deal with it. IIRC, often when they play a receiver with Hill's kind of speed, they practice with the scout team's WR's 2 or 3 yd off side to start the play to simulate just how fast Hill can get on top of you

2. The comments that the Pats don't do well on the road in the playoffs are also irrelevant. NO team does well on the road, especially when playing the best teams in the league. IIRC the Pats are .500 on the road in the playoffs. That's not bad actually. But in the end when a road team wins on the road at THIS point, it's an upset.

3 I doubt we will see the same kind of defense vs KC. Patrick Mahomes is NOT Phillip Rivers. Rivers was a stationary target, Mahomes is most definitely not. If the Pats are going to keep KC under 30, the Pats are going to HAVE to duplicate what Bill did to the Bills back in the day. Lots of yards few points. I

I suspect KC will get some run yards on Sunday. Prior to the Bills superbowl, BB reportedly told his defense that in order to win, they will have to allow Thomas to get his 100 yds, because they weren't going to beat them running the ball. Again, the yards, vs points concept.

4. On Paper one would think the Pats have no chance. KC has all pros littered across their roster to go along with the 2 most electric offensive players in the league. Two premium pass rushers. (Houston and Ford) One premium DT (CJones) Also a premium CB and S (if Berry plays)

On the other hand the Pats had only one elite player this year in Gilmore (CB). Not even the most rabid Pats fans can think Brady and Gronk had "elite years. We have no elite rushers. We have no elite DT's. We have no elite OLmen. We have no elite receivers. But football is great because because it is a game where the sum can be greater than the individual parts.

5. But while Brady had a very un-Brady like regular season, this is the playoffs, and playoff Brady in game one gave us EXACTLY what we've come to expect. Now that we've seen that, there is every reason to hope that we can see more of the same. Plus, while some may hang on to an argument that Brady isn't the GOAT, no one argues that he isn't the best bad weather QB of all time. And Sunday is going to be a bad weather game.

As for Gronk, last week was a positive sign for him as well. Not only did he play more than 90% of the snaps, he gave just a glimpse of what kind of impact Gronk can make on that 25yd run. THIS wasn't the Gronk who couldn't get an additional yd for a first down a few weeks back. THIS was the Gronk who blew up DB's and turn a 5 yd reception into a 25 yd gain. Don't be surprised to see Gronk play a more significant role in the passing game this week. No need to save him now. If he's going to retire, let him go out with a BANG!

5. One of the bigger keys in this game will be the battle between the KC receivers against the Pats secondary, which is the strength of the defense.. It should be noted that in that game JCJackson wasn't a factor with JJones getting all of the #3 CB snaps.

Having Jackson playing like a first round rookie at this point, and Jones playing better, the Pats are going to have the DB depth to be VERY creative this week. Here are some combinations we might see with the Pats line up man to man.

I don't really like the Gilmore/Hill match up. KC can do a lot to get Hill free releases off the LOS, and Hill has too much speed for any CB. So how about this, Put Gilmore on Watkins and erase him. Put Jones on Hill (he's our quickest guy) with help over the top. As for Kelce, rather than Chung, how about putting the 6'1 Jackson on him and Chung work on their RB's or slot guys. Just a thought

6. Key to that secondary has been the development of JC Jackson. He was an UDFA rookie who is playing as well as ANY of the 1st round rookie CB's. Still raw. Still prone to penalties. But he's always in tight coverage and most of the time the completions he gives up require either great throws or great catchers. It's like Malcolm Butler part 2. Only Jackson is 6'1 and strong.

7. I think as a fan running up to this game, the key element here is semantics. I think it is unrealistic to expect that the Pats WILL win this football game on Sunday night. KC has just has too many advantages as we discussed. I think rather we should focus on the fact that the Pats CAN with this game. It's a subtle distinction, but an important one.

This might be the worst talent this team has had since 2009. And like 2009, it was a team getting ready for a serious reboot in the off season. The team has 11 or 12 draft picks with 6 in the first 3 rounds. Wynn, Dawson, and Bently all had redshirt years and will be coming back. Plus when the dust settles the Pats will end up with enough cap space to add a significant FA or two. So the future DOES look bright and those who want to signal the end of this run are going to be bitterly disappointed......AGAIN.

But back to THIS year's flawed edition. In some ways this team is like the 2011 team which had an awesome offense, but a defense that was just horrible talent wise. In case you forgot, this was the Earthind Moreland/Sergio Brown era defense, which needed a significant cameo's by Julian Edelman. It was the defense that was aced out in the final game of the season from being dead last in total D. :eek: This wasn't a no-name defense, it was a NO BODY defense. But it was also a defense that was well coached and smart, and ended up playing well enough to get to a superbowl, and win it if the offense had played to their potential and we got a few bounces. (but we all know that story)

This years defense, and especially the secondary, is far superior to that one, and like most of our teams is playing it's best ball now. Now no one is likely to stop the KC offense (under 20), it could very well slow it down enough to make this a one score game into the 4th quarter. And if THAT's the case, I'll take my chances with Tom Brady and this coaching staff to execute under pressure and win a tight game.

8. A few things I was thinking we MIGHT see,

a. More 3-4 looks with High as an rushing OLB

b. More zone defenses, since with Mahomes running around back there, zone D's are more effective if he is running the ball.

c. Fewer blitzes, but lots of 4 man stunts, like we saw on the Flowers sack.

d. More targets to Gronk - If I'm the Chiefs, I'm doubling Julian and James, and daring anyone else to beat me.

e. Sony in the passing game. Right now the Pats have a strong tendency that when Sony is in the game, its a run, and when White is in the game it's a pass. While I don't doubt the latter will remain a fact, they CAN break that tendency by getting Sony more involved in the passing game.

f. This week's inactive list is going to be a very interesting one and one that will tell us a lot about how the Pats are going to try and play defense this week. Claybourn, Shelton, Rivers, etc. Who knows who is going to play or sit. A good topic for further discussion,

9. We are going to hear all week a LOT of reasons why KC will win the game, and most of them are legitimate. However here is a list of reasons to think we ARE going to win this game, DESPITE all the advantages KC has.

a. Weather - It could slow down both teams as the ball is going to be hard to throw, and it won't carry as well. Same in the kicking game. Strange to think that FG's beyond 45 yds are going to be very problematic. A lower scoring game is to the Pats advantage. Ball security is going to be key here because of the weather. The Pats have been very good so far this season.

b. As mentioned before, the Pats have the best bad weather QB in history, (as well as the GOAT in all forms of weather). Mahomes hasn't played in this kind of weather before. It will be interesting to see how he performs. He played well last week in poor weather.

c. Andy Reid is an excellent HC, but he isn't BB and that is a distinct advantage

d. We are healthy....and have been for most of the season (relatively) It seemed that most of our bad injury luck happened before September was over. IIRC by the time the season started we had 8 guys on IR and then lost Burkhead and Hill very early, So the year started out really poorly, but since then the only mid-season loss was Eric Rowe and we got back Rex. I can't remember a season with this few in-season injuries.

OK, that enough - add you comments and thoughts

@patfanken is officially the Floyd Mayweather who is officially the Brett Favre of retired posters.
 
Earthwind Moreland played in 2004, not 2011.

12 degrees will be cold enough to affect play. Hurts more to get hit, harder to catch a ball that's hard as a rock with cold hands, and so on. Statistically, very cold games affect passing games, and that's more detriment to Chiefs than Patriots.
 
I dont understand this, crowd noise is from people yelling, how is the cold going to affect that? It's not hand clapping
It’s wishful thinking. It won’t affect crowd noise at all.
 
I agree with much of what you have said, as always ;). However, I would point out that when James White is in the game it is pretty well balanced, pass vs run. This year he had 87 receptions (751 yards) and 94 rushes (425). When rushing, he had zero fumbles and 4.5 yards/per attempt. IMO, he is a "quiet" rusher who is extremely effective.
 
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I think the most encouraging sign that made Brady look like Brady last week was Edelman looking like his quick self again. Plus getting the quick dump off's to James White. The play action pass really helped a lot as well. I remember the Colts first play last week was a run for like a 2 yard loss(after dominating the week before on the ground in Houston). That 2 yard loss set the tone of the rest of the day. The colts offense couldn't do anything and got way behind. Somehow the Patriots have to get the run working their first series. Allowing other things to open up.

I also think winning the turnover battle will be critical as well. Getting a turn over will help quiet the crowd a bit. Last time we played on the road, Denver's defense dominated our OL. Brady had no time to throw. Our OL is playing better this time and KC's D is not as good. Plus we have a better running back this time. So establishing the run will be key.
 
Here's another place.

J.C. Jackson

Hell, I don't need a tap measure to see that he's a lot taller than under 5'10. You've got eyes. He's over 6' tall at least.

The 5096 was an official public measurement that was performed and recorded at the Combine in front of media people, cameras, and representatives from all 32 teams. It was also later confirmed at his pro day under the same public circumstances. If those measurements had been off by as much as 1", not to mention 2", it's hard to believe that none of the numerous independent observers of the measurement process would have noticed and spoken up.
 
Thanks, PFK, been waiting all week for your breakdown.

I just want to get this game going already. I am imposing a moratorium on sports radio the rest of the week. Enough talk. With the storm coming in Sunday, it's gonna be a long day until KO of the NFC game. I may have to go plow to keep my head on right.
 
The 5096 was an official public measurement that was performed and recorded at the Combine in front of media people, cameras, and representatives from all 32 teams. It was also later confirmed at his pro day under the same public circumstances. If those measurements had been off by as much as 1", not to mention 2", it's hard to believe that none of the numerous independent observers of the measurement process would have noticed and spoken up.
Don't disagree with your combine info, but c'mon MM, just use your eyes. He towers over JJones, who is listed at 5'10. How do you explain that. Is it an optical illusion? ;)
 
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