BobDigital
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I imagine this will be moved at some point, but seeing as there is no Patriots game and the winning of this would may decide a lot for us it is worth a break down. I may do another for the other AFC game tomorrow if people liked this one. If you don't want to read the entire thread I will spoil my prediction now. The Chargers will win. For some sources please check the following links as I think they are worth viewing in the context of this discussion.
The Week 16 match up highlights of the two teams. I will be going back to this alot.
A breakdown of the Ravens offense by Brett Kollmann
The last time these two teams played, the Chargers were coming off an emotional comeback win over KC. The Ravens have been steadily grinding out wins against bottom feeders (besides the narrow loss to KC I mean). As Patriots fans know. After a team REALLY gets up for a game against an opponent it is hard to keep that level of intensity. I believe the Chargers loss slightly in a let down game. Mostly on the offensive side. Even though this was a 22-10 win for Baltimore the reality of the game shows a much different picture.
The Chargers Defense - This was a very good game by this unit. Even with a few hiccups there wasn't much there for the Ravens. They successfully stopped the outside gimmick runs of the Ravens and forced them to run the ball mostly inside. They successfully forced the Ravens to get away what had been working for them offensively. If not for a few breakdowns and a big turnover at the end they would have completely shut the Ravens down. Here is how the Ravens offense did against the Chargers in the last game
A turnover at mid field to start the game was bad but not backbreaking. It was the next play that was the big issue. The Chargers are in the right defense but a defender at the heart of the defense immediately ends up on the ground. Gus runs up the middle for a 43 yard gain where the defender would have been. This leads to a first and goal. 3 points.
The Ravens have a nice drive down the field but sputter. A 53 yard attempt is no good.
On a 3rd and 2 up the middle Jackson runs for 27 yards to get his biggest run of the night. This should have been stopped for maybe 2-3 yards but the DL wasn't paying enough attention and didn't get there arms out to pull him down as he ran through a tight hole up the middle. That play helps get them in the redzone where it is a turnover on downs. They keep field position and have a nice little drive after a solid return. 26 yard attempt is good. 3 points
The next good drive they have features a 68 yard TD pass to their rookie TE Mark Andrews. This was just a perfect pass but also bad defense. If the Chargers don't allow this one play Lamar ends his passing day 11/21 136 yards 0 TD o Int. It is fair to say besides this one play the Chargers shut down the Ravens passing attack. No one else for the Ravens broke 30 yards. 7 points.
The Ravens have a good drive late to get to the 38 yard. A 56 yard attempt is good. 3 points.
A fumble is returned for a 62 yard TD. 6 points. (2 point try is missed).
That is how the Ravens put up their 22 points. If not for a handful of bad plays by the Chargers the Ravens wouldn't have been able to do much of anything. Most of the big plays the Ravens had that allowed them to score won't happen again when these 2 teams play. They will have less mental break downs. If you simply don't let a TE out run your DBs and you don't have that fumble return the Ravens score a total of 9 points. And I haven't even talked about the breakdown the Chargers had up the middle when their DL man fell over to allow a 43 yard run which led to 3 points. It is clear to me that a lot of things went right for the Raven offense to put up this amount. They will not hit 22 points in the next contest.
As Kollman put better then I can, the Chargers clearly have a good idea how to stop this offense and were able to execute on it for the vast majority of the game. I only saw one defense outside run the entire game and that is where the bread and butter has been for the Ravens. The DEs will not do any worse after seeing it already. Everyone else including the LBs and the CBs proved they know where to be and they won't forget that all of a sudden. If the Chargers can just clean a few things up it may be possible (even likely) to hold The Ravens in single digits or the low double digits.
Now how about the other side?
The Chargers had their worst offensive game of the year. If not for a fumble that put the ball 17 yards away from the end zone they would have ended with 3 points on the day. The question is this: How much of that is just good defense and how much is failure to execute/bad luck?
While I don't think the Chargers have the kind of team that can put up 30 points on the Ravens they are a good offense and should do better than 3 points. Rivers missed a lot of throws and they had a lot of untimely penalties and mistakes. When I saw the game live I had the impression some of the offensive play calls could have been better. In the end it came down to Rivers not looking sharp and the OL not giving him enough time. While I don't expect fireworks this game from the Chargers they will not be stopped as much as they were last time. Mostly because it isn't possible for them to do any worse. I wish I could get more and an X and O breakdown here but in the end execution is what the issue was imo.
Against a blitz happy team like the Ravens execution is so important. The success of a play often comes down to if you OL knows what to do and if you can buy that extra half second or not. I really like aggressive Ds like the Ravens cause they force the issue and have the talent to get there and not leave their DBs hanging for long. That being said if the OL just executes well and holds you leave your DBs in a bad spot when you are overly aggressive. The Ravens simply shut down the Chargers offense by dominating their offensive line much of the game with pass rush. There isn't much to break down when that happens. You can only say that the Chargers offensive line is better than what they showed that game. That isn't to say they are good. In fact they are below average. But they aren't THAT bad.
Overall my thoughts are this. The Chargers defense besides a few hiccups successfully did what they set out to do. There is no reason there should be more hiccups this time around and the scheme here won't change for the Chargers and the Ravens can't do anything different. On defense the Ravens had a very good game last time but they are not the 85 bears defense and the Chargers aren't a team that typically needs a gift turnover to put more than 3 points on the board. The X's and O's didn't cause that dominate defensive performance. It was the Jimmies just not being ready to go against the Joes and failing to execute that did.
While this will be a tight game (cause that Ravens D is legit good). I don't see the Ravens able to put up enough points this time around against a team that has been proven to know how to stop them. I also don't believe The Ravens will be able to count on an offensive under performance after an emotional high from the Chargers this time. Chargers win. 20-13
The Week 16 match up highlights of the two teams. I will be going back to this alot.
A breakdown of the Ravens offense by Brett Kollmann
The last time these two teams played, the Chargers were coming off an emotional comeback win over KC. The Ravens have been steadily grinding out wins against bottom feeders (besides the narrow loss to KC I mean). As Patriots fans know. After a team REALLY gets up for a game against an opponent it is hard to keep that level of intensity. I believe the Chargers loss slightly in a let down game. Mostly on the offensive side. Even though this was a 22-10 win for Baltimore the reality of the game shows a much different picture.
The Chargers Defense - This was a very good game by this unit. Even with a few hiccups there wasn't much there for the Ravens. They successfully stopped the outside gimmick runs of the Ravens and forced them to run the ball mostly inside. They successfully forced the Ravens to get away what had been working for them offensively. If not for a few breakdowns and a big turnover at the end they would have completely shut the Ravens down. Here is how the Ravens offense did against the Chargers in the last game
A turnover at mid field to start the game was bad but not backbreaking. It was the next play that was the big issue. The Chargers are in the right defense but a defender at the heart of the defense immediately ends up on the ground. Gus runs up the middle for a 43 yard gain where the defender would have been. This leads to a first and goal. 3 points.
The Ravens have a nice drive down the field but sputter. A 53 yard attempt is no good.
On a 3rd and 2 up the middle Jackson runs for 27 yards to get his biggest run of the night. This should have been stopped for maybe 2-3 yards but the DL wasn't paying enough attention and didn't get there arms out to pull him down as he ran through a tight hole up the middle. That play helps get them in the redzone where it is a turnover on downs. They keep field position and have a nice little drive after a solid return. 26 yard attempt is good. 3 points
The next good drive they have features a 68 yard TD pass to their rookie TE Mark Andrews. This was just a perfect pass but also bad defense. If the Chargers don't allow this one play Lamar ends his passing day 11/21 136 yards 0 TD o Int. It is fair to say besides this one play the Chargers shut down the Ravens passing attack. No one else for the Ravens broke 30 yards. 7 points.
The Ravens have a good drive late to get to the 38 yard. A 56 yard attempt is good. 3 points.
A fumble is returned for a 62 yard TD. 6 points. (2 point try is missed).
That is how the Ravens put up their 22 points. If not for a handful of bad plays by the Chargers the Ravens wouldn't have been able to do much of anything. Most of the big plays the Ravens had that allowed them to score won't happen again when these 2 teams play. They will have less mental break downs. If you simply don't let a TE out run your DBs and you don't have that fumble return the Ravens score a total of 9 points. And I haven't even talked about the breakdown the Chargers had up the middle when their DL man fell over to allow a 43 yard run which led to 3 points. It is clear to me that a lot of things went right for the Raven offense to put up this amount. They will not hit 22 points in the next contest.
As Kollman put better then I can, the Chargers clearly have a good idea how to stop this offense and were able to execute on it for the vast majority of the game. I only saw one defense outside run the entire game and that is where the bread and butter has been for the Ravens. The DEs will not do any worse after seeing it already. Everyone else including the LBs and the CBs proved they know where to be and they won't forget that all of a sudden. If the Chargers can just clean a few things up it may be possible (even likely) to hold The Ravens in single digits or the low double digits.
Now how about the other side?
The Chargers had their worst offensive game of the year. If not for a fumble that put the ball 17 yards away from the end zone they would have ended with 3 points on the day. The question is this: How much of that is just good defense and how much is failure to execute/bad luck?
While I don't think the Chargers have the kind of team that can put up 30 points on the Ravens they are a good offense and should do better than 3 points. Rivers missed a lot of throws and they had a lot of untimely penalties and mistakes. When I saw the game live I had the impression some of the offensive play calls could have been better. In the end it came down to Rivers not looking sharp and the OL not giving him enough time. While I don't expect fireworks this game from the Chargers they will not be stopped as much as they were last time. Mostly because it isn't possible for them to do any worse. I wish I could get more and an X and O breakdown here but in the end execution is what the issue was imo.
Against a blitz happy team like the Ravens execution is so important. The success of a play often comes down to if you OL knows what to do and if you can buy that extra half second or not. I really like aggressive Ds like the Ravens cause they force the issue and have the talent to get there and not leave their DBs hanging for long. That being said if the OL just executes well and holds you leave your DBs in a bad spot when you are overly aggressive. The Ravens simply shut down the Chargers offense by dominating their offensive line much of the game with pass rush. There isn't much to break down when that happens. You can only say that the Chargers offensive line is better than what they showed that game. That isn't to say they are good. In fact they are below average. But they aren't THAT bad.
Overall my thoughts are this. The Chargers defense besides a few hiccups successfully did what they set out to do. There is no reason there should be more hiccups this time around and the scheme here won't change for the Chargers and the Ravens can't do anything different. On defense the Ravens had a very good game last time but they are not the 85 bears defense and the Chargers aren't a team that typically needs a gift turnover to put more than 3 points on the board. The X's and O's didn't cause that dominate defensive performance. It was the Jimmies just not being ready to go against the Joes and failing to execute that did.
While this will be a tight game (cause that Ravens D is legit good). I don't see the Ravens able to put up enough points this time around against a team that has been proven to know how to stop them. I also don't believe The Ravens will be able to count on an offensive under performance after an emotional high from the Chargers this time. Chargers win. 20-13
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