Got this idea from some comments in other threads about how Brady is locking on to just a couple of receivers.
Looking at the last five seasons, trying to see how Brady is distributing the ball. The last five seasons featured two Super Bowl-winning seasons, a Super Bowl loss, and AFCCG loss, and then this year, when the team seems clearly in decline. So five different circumstances. Of course, 2016 also featured four games without Brady, but we're still counting all those games and their pass distribution because I don't feel like taking all that out. And 2016 was largely without Gronk, and 2017 without Edelman. So again, every season is different. Nonetheless, here's how it looked.
2014-2018
#1 target: 22.5%
#2 target: 17.6%
#3 target: 15.2%
#4 target: 12.2%
#5 target: 8.7%
#6 target: 6.6%
#7 target: 5.0%
#8 target: 3.9%
#9 target: 2.7%
#10 target: 1.9%
#11 target: 1.2%
#12 target: 0.9%
#13 target: 0.6%
#14 target: 0.5%
#15 target: 0.2%
#16 target: 0.2%
#17 target: 0.1%
Here's what the distribution looked like (top 10 targeted players only) when they won the two Super Bowls (2014, 2016):
2014
#1 target (Edelman): 22.3%
#2 target (Gronk): 21.8%
#3 target (LaFell): 19.8%
#4 target (Vereen): 12.8%
#5 target (Amendola): 7.0%
#6 target (Wright): 5.5%
#7 target (Thompkins): 1.8%
#8 target (Tyms): 1.8%
#9 target (Develin): 1.3%
#10 target (Bolden): 1.0%
2016
#1 target (Edelman): 29.1%
#2 target (White): 15.8%
#3 target (Bennett): 13.4%
#4 target (Hogan): 10.6%
#5 target (Mitchell): 8.8%
#6 target (Gronk): 7.0% (Gronk was hurt for half the season)
#7 target (Amendola): 5.3%
#8 target (Lewis): 4.4%
#9 target (Floyd): 1.1%
#10 target (Develin): 1.1%
So we see, maybe due to the Gronk injury, how much more Brady went to his #1 target (Edelman) than in 2014. Nearly 3 of every 10 of Brady's passes were aimed at Edelman.
What about Brady's recent MVP season - 2017, where he was amazing but they didn't win the Super Bowl? Edelman was out all season.
2017
#1 target (Cooks): 19.5%
#2 target (Gronk): 18.0%
#3 target (Amendola): 14.7%
#4 target (White): 12.3%
#5 target (Hogan): 10.1%
#6 target (Burkhead): 6.2%
#7 target (Lewis): 6.0%
#8 target (Allen): 3.8%
#9 target (Dorsett): 3.1%
#10 target (Hollister): 1.9%
So a much wider distribution among his top 9 guys anyway. And then what about this year?
2018
#1 target (White): 23.0%
#2 target (Edelman): 18.6%
#3 target (Gordon): 13.7%
#4 target (Gronk): 13.5%
#5 target (Hogan): 8.9%
#6 target (Dorsett): 6.5%
#7 target (Patterson): 5.3%
#8 target (Develin): 3.4%
#9 target (Burkhead): 2.6%
#10 target (Michel): 2.2%
Let's compare 2018 with the 2014-2018 overall average:
2018 - 2014-18
#1 target: 23.0% - 22.5%
#2 target: 18.6% - 17.6%
#3 target: 13.7% - 15.2%
#4 target: 13.5% - 12.2%
#5 target: 8.9% - 8.7%
#6 target: 6.5% - 6.6%
#7 target: 5.3% - 5.0%
#8 target: 3.4% - 3.9%
#9 target: 2.6% - 2.7%
#10 target: 2.2% - 1.9%
In other words, he's throwing to his top 10 targets at almost identical rates as he has over the course of his most recent 5-year period. Slightly more to his #1 and #2 receivers (41.6% in 2018 vs. 40.1% from 2014-18). Slightly less to his #3 receivers (13.7% in 2018 vs. 15.2% from 2014-18). Slightly more to his #4 and #5 receivers (22.4% in 2018 vs. 20.9% from 2014-18). But on the whole, it's almost identical rates. Nothing to suggest that his pass distribution is anything out of the ordinary. Interestingly, when they won the Super Bowl in 2014, he was super top-3 target heavy, with 63.9% of his passes going to his top three targets (Edelman, Gronk, LaFell). In 2016, when they won it all again, it was the most top-heavy season, with Brady targeting his #1 target (Edelman) 29.1% of the time.
This year, his top 3 targets (White, Edelman, Gordon) are getting just 55.3% of the targets, so he's spreading it around more. He's definitely not throwing to Gronk as much, but on the whole, he's looking very much like how Tom Brady usually looks in terms of ball distribution.
Looking at the last five seasons, trying to see how Brady is distributing the ball. The last five seasons featured two Super Bowl-winning seasons, a Super Bowl loss, and AFCCG loss, and then this year, when the team seems clearly in decline. So five different circumstances. Of course, 2016 also featured four games without Brady, but we're still counting all those games and their pass distribution because I don't feel like taking all that out. And 2016 was largely without Gronk, and 2017 without Edelman. So again, every season is different. Nonetheless, here's how it looked.
2014-2018
#1 target: 22.5%
#2 target: 17.6%
#3 target: 15.2%
#4 target: 12.2%
#5 target: 8.7%
#6 target: 6.6%
#7 target: 5.0%
#8 target: 3.9%
#9 target: 2.7%
#10 target: 1.9%
#11 target: 1.2%
#12 target: 0.9%
#13 target: 0.6%
#14 target: 0.5%
#15 target: 0.2%
#16 target: 0.2%
#17 target: 0.1%
Here's what the distribution looked like (top 10 targeted players only) when they won the two Super Bowls (2014, 2016):
2014
#1 target (Edelman): 22.3%
#2 target (Gronk): 21.8%
#3 target (LaFell): 19.8%
#4 target (Vereen): 12.8%
#5 target (Amendola): 7.0%
#6 target (Wright): 5.5%
#7 target (Thompkins): 1.8%
#8 target (Tyms): 1.8%
#9 target (Develin): 1.3%
#10 target (Bolden): 1.0%
2016
#1 target (Edelman): 29.1%
#2 target (White): 15.8%
#3 target (Bennett): 13.4%
#4 target (Hogan): 10.6%
#5 target (Mitchell): 8.8%
#6 target (Gronk): 7.0% (Gronk was hurt for half the season)
#7 target (Amendola): 5.3%
#8 target (Lewis): 4.4%
#9 target (Floyd): 1.1%
#10 target (Develin): 1.1%
So we see, maybe due to the Gronk injury, how much more Brady went to his #1 target (Edelman) than in 2014. Nearly 3 of every 10 of Brady's passes were aimed at Edelman.
What about Brady's recent MVP season - 2017, where he was amazing but they didn't win the Super Bowl? Edelman was out all season.
2017
#1 target (Cooks): 19.5%
#2 target (Gronk): 18.0%
#3 target (Amendola): 14.7%
#4 target (White): 12.3%
#5 target (Hogan): 10.1%
#6 target (Burkhead): 6.2%
#7 target (Lewis): 6.0%
#8 target (Allen): 3.8%
#9 target (Dorsett): 3.1%
#10 target (Hollister): 1.9%
So a much wider distribution among his top 9 guys anyway. And then what about this year?
2018
#1 target (White): 23.0%
#2 target (Edelman): 18.6%
#3 target (Gordon): 13.7%
#4 target (Gronk): 13.5%
#5 target (Hogan): 8.9%
#6 target (Dorsett): 6.5%
#7 target (Patterson): 5.3%
#8 target (Develin): 3.4%
#9 target (Burkhead): 2.6%
#10 target (Michel): 2.2%
Let's compare 2018 with the 2014-2018 overall average:
2018 - 2014-18
#1 target: 23.0% - 22.5%
#2 target: 18.6% - 17.6%
#3 target: 13.7% - 15.2%
#4 target: 13.5% - 12.2%
#5 target: 8.9% - 8.7%
#6 target: 6.5% - 6.6%
#7 target: 5.3% - 5.0%
#8 target: 3.4% - 3.9%
#9 target: 2.6% - 2.7%
#10 target: 2.2% - 1.9%
In other words, he's throwing to his top 10 targets at almost identical rates as he has over the course of his most recent 5-year period. Slightly more to his #1 and #2 receivers (41.6% in 2018 vs. 40.1% from 2014-18). Slightly less to his #3 receivers (13.7% in 2018 vs. 15.2% from 2014-18). Slightly more to his #4 and #5 receivers (22.4% in 2018 vs. 20.9% from 2014-18). But on the whole, it's almost identical rates. Nothing to suggest that his pass distribution is anything out of the ordinary. Interestingly, when they won the Super Bowl in 2014, he was super top-3 target heavy, with 63.9% of his passes going to his top three targets (Edelman, Gronk, LaFell). In 2016, when they won it all again, it was the most top-heavy season, with Brady targeting his #1 target (Edelman) 29.1% of the time.
This year, his top 3 targets (White, Edelman, Gordon) are getting just 55.3% of the targets, so he's spreading it around more. He's definitely not throwing to Gronk as much, but on the whole, he's looking very much like how Tom Brady usually looks in terms of ball distribution.
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But great idea!
