Patriots future QB and their path to him

[BobDigital]

When will they pick the future guy and how likely is it they get one without having the mortgage everything? It's looking more likely after last draft. When a team drafts a guy in round 1 the general rule is generally for at least the next 2 drafts they don't try again after investing so much. Even longer if they sit him for a year.

CLV, NYJ, BUF AZ and BLT got their guys in round 1 so they are out the QB business for the next 2 years.

Counting trades and other QBs who will be getting their shot with teams or who have established themselves the teams who I believe are solid or stay with what they got at the spot the next 2 drafts are...

AFCE - NYJ, Buf
AFCN - Balt, Clv, Cin? Pit? (Pit may believe Mason is worth developing & I think Cinci likes Dalton)
AFCS - Ind, Ten, Hou Jax? (Lots of talk about Bortles but maybe they think he is worth keeping)
AFCW - KC, Oak
NFCE - Phi, Dal, Wash? (Maybe they are okay with Smith for a while)
NFCN - Min, Det, GB (Chicigo invested high in Trubisky but i think he's out in the next 2 years)
NFCS - Car, Atl, TB
NFCW - LAR SF AZ SEA

Pats, Mia, Cin? Pit?, Jax?, LAC, Den, NYG, Wash?, Chi., NO. So 7-10 teams will be looking in the next 2 years. Alot depends how teams feel about guys like Bortles, Smith, Rudolph and Tannehill as well how the Chargers sense of urgency when it comes to Rivers. If he plays to play to 40 they have 4 years to make a move. If not it's much sooner. Also with AZ I imagine they will look to trade Bradford to a QB needy team after this year. Maybe that takes 1 more off the list for a while.

All in all it be reasonable to assume only 8 teams will be looking for QB in the draft next 2 seasons.

Of those potential QB needy teams a few of them besides the Pats shouldn't be picking in the top 10 (Pit, NO, Jax, LAC). This makes trading up if they choose a lot less expensive and other teams may not feel the pressure to draft their guy in round 1 if they are okay with their situation that year and feel they are can a more developmental prospect.

While predicting the future is hard particularly in football the Patriots will probably in the next 2 drafts find themselves in a situation where higher rated QB prospects are falling late into round 1 and into round 2.

Overall I am hopeful a target we may want falls in our range over the next 2 drafts.

 

[A Defiant Goose]

It's gotta be next year or we risk rushing a QB in before he's ready. Who knows, maybe Etling has an exceptional pre season and they feel like he's adequate enough to win games for a season or two after Brady retires (something like an Alex Smith) and take their time with a franchise QB

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

Nick foles should also be a FA after the season.

 

[Love The Drake]

Drew Lock baby
I have a feeling Cincy is our biggest obstacle to get him.

 

[mgteich]

Overall I am hopeful a target we may want falls in our range over the next 2 drafts.

Perhaps there will be a late first or later that we want next year. Even wth ONLY 8 teams interest in quarterbacks, there would be pressure to trade up to get the best of them. Why would we expect a franchise quarterback to drop further than the top 10 next years? As we know from this year, pick #10 requires about the #23 and #31, or probably our top 3 picks next year.

 

[mgteich]

Nick foles should also be a FA after the season.

Sure. Check out what Qb's got in the last free agent market. Is that OK in addition to continuing to pay Brady? No, of course, not. We need to draft a QB, sign someone who is cut or trade for someone that a team has little further use for.

IMHO, the resources required by the March 2019 free agent market will not be friendly at all.

 

[VectorPrime]

Pretty sure they were hot on Mayfield and expected to be able to nab him in the mid 1st round. But then he shot up every teams draft board and out of their reach so now they have to come up with a new plan.

 

[PlanB]

Iowa State's Kyle Kempt

 

[Sfpat]

Didn't Foles just sign an extension?

 

[Love The Drake]

Pretty sure they were hot on Mayfield and expected to be able to nab him in the mid 1st round. But then he shot up every teams draft board and out of their reach so now they have to come up with a new plan.

Something I don't like about him
After hearing the comments Rosen made that turned me off as well.
Id be good with Foles as a stopgap til we find the guy.

 

[dafoe2016]

Nick foles should also be a FA after the season.

So will every CFL QB.

 

[maust]

I think Foles is headed for some real money post Philly. After a 2-3 of years of spinning his wheels in the Washington meat grinder and the honeymoon there coming to an end Alex Smith might be more than happy to become the stop gap post Brady guy should one be needed.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

Didn't Foles just sign an extension?

Think it was a mutual extension so he could opt out

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

And just because I brought up foles doesn’t mean he’s in our future plans. He could be some other qb needy teams future qb.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

Something I don't like about him
After hearing the comments Rosen made that turned me off as well.
Id be good with Foles as a stopgap til we find the guy.

I think Rosen could be a stud assuming that OL for Arizona holds up. I doubt we see him but we might at end of the year

 

[BobDigital]

Perhaps there will be a late first or later that we want next year. Even wth ONLY 8 teams interest in quarterbacks, there would be pressure to trade up to get the best of them. Why would we expect a franchise quarterback to drop further than the top 10 next years? As we know from this year, pick #10 requires about the #23 and #31, or probably our top 3 picks next year.

Maybe but it is at least a chance. Simply put, the Pats don't have the ammo to trade up for #1 #2 or #3 unless Brady or Gronk is on the table. So we need to hope for there to be more than 1-2 QBs and that they drop.

So I am trying to show how that could happen. If it doesn't then the Patriots need to package Brady or Gronk. Simple as that.

 

[IcyPatriot]

I think Belichick will try to acquire a future (2020) 1st next year and draft another QB 3rd round or later. Patriots will then be able to draft a decent 1st round QB and they can use Brady's money sign a FA QB when he's finished. Hoyer, Etling and 2019 draftee can bridge the gap should that be needed. The balancing act will be not to have a huge dead money whack should Brady retire 1 year early after getting a new deal. I hope his deals are 1 year at a time ... that's fair.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Iowa State's Kyle Kempt

Let us pray his middle name isn't "Un."

 

[farn]

It's gotta be next year or we risk rushing a QB in before he's ready. Who knows, maybe Etling has an exceptional pre season and they feel like he's adequate enough to win games for a season or two after Brady retires (something like an Alex Smith) and take their time with a franchise QB

Easy now. I know many on here aren’t as high on Alex Smith as I am, but still.
(1) 99% of the time, you can't compare the #1 overall pick to a 7th rounder
(2) Alex Smith has had a very good career and we should be so fortunate to have that type of caliber follow Brady.

 

[lancerman]

To get someone good we need it to be a draft where QB doesn't have 5 or more desperate teams. Basically.

This was a hot class and Cleveland/New York/Arizona/Buffalo NEEDED a QB desperately. Broncos might NEED a QB next year and if they do they will be positioned ahead of us. As will the New York Giants.

Aside from that.

Pittsburgh-not going first round with Ben still there.
Cleveland- not going first round again
Baltimore- not going first round
Cincinatti- depends on Dalton

Jets- not with Darnold there
Buffalo- not with Allen there.
Miami- possibly depending on how Tannehill and the team do.

Chargers-doubtful unless Rivers craps the bed
Kansas City- can't with the situation.
Denver- very possible
Raiders- not with Carr

Indianapolis- not with Luck
Tennessee- not with Mariota
Houston- not with Watson
Jacksonville- only if the team severely underperforms

Packers- lol
Bears- maybe
Vikings- no way
Detroit- Stafford will prevent this.

Seahawks- they have Wilson
Niners- they have Jimmy G
Arizona- they can't after Rosen
Rams- Goff

Eagles- Wentz
Cowboys- Dak
Giants- big possibility
Redskins- they will roll with Smith

Carolina- not with Cam
Tampa Bay- I think they will role with Winston
New Orleans- committed to Brees right now
Falcons- not with Ryan

So you are looking at a situation where Denver if Keenum doesn't pan out, Cincinatti if Dalton has a bad year, Miami depending on how they do, Chicago almost definitely, and NYG most likely.

That's 5 teams you will likely contend with for a top round QB next year. If those teams pick in the top 15 I think they will almost definitely take a QB. If they make the playoffs I think they won't.

I think you do need to spend a first rounder to gaurantee quality. However I think there will be less urgency than this year.